Thematic Investing

To the Moon(shots)! - Future Tech Primer

Authored By
Analyst Name Haim Israel  >>
Analyst Email haim.israel@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Equity Strategist
Analyst Region Merrill Lynch (Israel)
Analyst Phone +972 3 607 2007
Analyst Name Felix Tran  >>
Analyst Email felix.tran@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Equity Strategist
Analyst Region MLI (UK)
Analyst Phone +44 20 7996 7010
Analyst Name Martyn Briggs  >>
Analyst Email martyn.briggs@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Equity Strategist
Analyst Region MLI (UK)
Analyst Phone +44 20 7996 7442
Report Details
Thematic Investing 14 September 2021 Equity Global

Thematic Investing

To the Moon(shots)! - Future Tech Primer

Authored By
Analyst Name Haim Israel  >>
Analyst Email haim.israel@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Equity Strategist
Analyst Region Merrill Lynch (Israel)
Analyst Phone +972 3 607 2007
Analyst Name Felix Tran  >>
Analyst Email felix.tran@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Equity Strategist
Analyst Region MLI (UK)
Analyst Phone +44 20 7996 7010
Analyst Name Martyn Briggs  >>
Analyst Email martyn.briggs@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Equity Strategist
Analyst Region MLI (UK)
Analyst Phone +44 20 7996 7442
Report Details
Thematic Investing 14 September 2021 Equity Global
Glossary
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>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.

Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

 

 

Key takeaways
  • We examine potential future tech that could transform our lives (6G, eVTOL, CCS etc) and be worth a $6tn+ mkt by the 2030s.
  • Examining the next 'moonshots' is more important than ever: just 1.5% of companies created 100% of new wealth in the past 30Y
  • 14 radical technologies to accelerate themes: Emotional AI, Immortality, Synthetic Biology, Metaverse, Nextgen Batteries etc.

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To the Moon(shots)! - Future Tech Primer Video

To the Moon(shots)! - Future Tech Primer Video


Thematic Investing

Eureka! The 14 technologies of the future you must know

6G could have a download speed of 1Tb/s, the OceanTech economy could be as big as Germany's GDP, and thanks to Emotional AI our personal devices will know more about our feelings than our families. If we don't appear at meetings via Holograms, we will get there by eVTOL flying cars and, by the end of the decade, we will spend more time in the Metaverse than 'real life'. These are just a few of the 14 moonshots in this report, i.e., radical technologies that could change our lives and accelerate the impact of global megatrends. And we argue they are not as far into the future as you might think.

Tomorrow may be too late; pace of change to accelerate

Failure to identify future tech today could mean missing out on the next big revolution. The pace at which themes are transforming businesses is blistering, but the adoption of many technologies - like smartphones or renewable energy - have surpassed experts' forecasts by decades, because we often think linearly but progress occurs exponentially. And we haven't seen anything yet: a paradigm shift in the explosion of data (we are generating 2.5 quintillion bytes of data every day which is doubling every 2-3Y), faster processing power (>1 trillion-fold increase since Apollo 11), and the rise of AI (already same IQ as a 6 year old) would bring about the fastest rollout of disruptive tech in history.

Imagine investing in the Internet before dot.com boom

Leftfield technologies will be needed to tackle immense global challenges. Could 5G be unable to handle the exponential growth in data by the end of the decade? Then 6G will need to be rapidly deployed in just 5-6Y. Could scarce natural resources and increasing emissions hold back the planet from decarbonizing and tackling climate change? Then carbon capture storage, nextgen batteries and green mining could be the solution to decrease emissions by 70% and enable access to 3x more rare earth metals. Is health the new wealth post-COVID? Then bionic humans, brain-computer interfaces and synthetic biology could all take us a step further towards the holy grail of 'immortality'.

Disruption always wins: 1.5% generated 100% of net wealth

In the past 30Y, just 1.5% of companies generated all the net wealth on the global stock market, meaning that actually only a handful of disruptors ('superstar firms') really influence long-term financial markets growth. Furthermore, accelerating innovation places incumbents at greater risk of displacement. In 1958, the average company lasted 61 years on the S&P 500; by 2016 this was 24 years and is forecast to be just 12 years by 2027.

US$330bn mkt today; possibly US$6tn+ by the next decade

The 14 technologies we highlight in this report represent a US$330bn market size today (2019-21) growing at an average CAGR of 36% to potentially US$6.4tn by the 2030s. These moonshots could transform and disrupt multiple industries, contributing to the next big cycle of technology-driven growth.