Global Fund Manager Survey

The Contrarian Play: Commodities

Authored By
Analyst Name Michael Hartnett
Analyst Email michael.hartnett@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 1508
Analyst Name Elyas Galou
Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Analyst Email elyas.galou@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofASE (France)
Analyst Phone +33 1 8770 0087
Analyst Name Anya Shelekhin
Analyst Email anya.shelekhin@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 3753
Analyst Name Myung-Jee Jung
Analyst Email myung-jee.jung@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 0389
Report Details
17 September 2024 Investment Strategy Global

Global Fund Manager Survey

The Contrarian Play: Commodities

Authored By
Analyst Name Michael Hartnett
Analyst Email michael.hartnett@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 1508
Analyst Name Elyas Galou
Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Analyst Email elyas.galou@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofASE (France)
Analyst Phone +33 1 8770 0087
Analyst Name Anya Shelekhin
Analyst Email anya.shelekhin@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 3753
Analyst Name Myung-Jee Jung
Analyst Email myung-jee.jung@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 0389
Report Details
17 September 2024 Investment Strategy Global
Glossary
displayAudiocast is false

 

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.

>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.

Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

 

 

Key takeaways
  • Nervous bulls... 9/10 expect steeper yield curve, 8/10 forecast "soft landing", 7/10 are long "high quality" stocks
  • Big Sept rotation to bond sensitives (16-year high utilities OW) from cyclicals (commodity allocation @ 7-year low)
  • Tactical positioning in Sept FMS says the bigger the Fed cut, the better for cyclicals

BofA Data Analytics


Global Fund Manager Survey

 

Notes to Readers

Source for all tables and charts:
BofA Fund Manager Survey, DataStream

Survey period 6th to 12th Sept 2024

243 panellists with $666bn AUM participated in the September survey. 206 participants with $593bn AUM responded to the Global FMS questions and 138 participants with $284bn AUM responded to the Regional FMS questions.

How to join the FMS panel

Investors/clients are encouraged to sign up to participate in the Survey. This can be done by contacting Michael Hartnett or your BofA sales representative.

Participants in the survey will continue to receive the full set of monthly results but only for the relevant month in which they participate.

OW: overweight; UW: underweight

AA: asset allocation

 

Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA September Global Fund Manager Survey

    Bottom Line: global sentiment improves for 1st time since June on "Fed cuts = soft landing" optimism… cash level dips to 4.2%, BofA Bull & Bear Indicator dips to 5.4; but investors best described as "nervous bulls"… Sept FMS shows big rotation to bond sensitives (e.g. utilities OW highest since 2008) from cyclicals (e.g. commodity allocation @ 7-year low)… tactically Sept FMS says the bigger the Fed cut, the better for cyclicals.

FMS Big Convictions: 9/10 investors positioned for steeper yield curve, 8/10 investors forecast "soft landing", 7/10 investors say high quality to outperform low quality stocks.

FMS on Macro: global growth expectations low but bounce to -42%; "soft landing" forecast by 79% of investors (11% say hard landing, 7% say no landing), and 2/3 say recession "unlikely" despite 3-year low in China growth optimism; note investor desire for corporations to use cash to boost shareholder payouts @ 11-year high.

FMS on Policy & Risk: 6/10 say monetary policy "too restrictive" (16-year high), and record 90% see steeper yield curve; FMS risk appetite at 11-month low; most crowded trade "long Magnificent 7" say 46%, but "short China stocks" & "long gold" on rise.

FMS on AA: equity OW unchanged (net 11%) but commodity allocation slumps to lowest since Jun'17 (Chart 1); FMS most OW utilities since Dec'08, most OW banks since Feb'23, most OW staples since Sep'23, smallest OW tech since Apr'23, most UW energy since Dec'20, most UW materials since Jun'20… big shifts from global cyclicals to bond sensitives… note investors expecting value to outperform growth at 10-month high.

FMS Contrarian Trades: FMS positions say long commodities, China, resources, tech, REITs, discretionary, and short bonds, utilities, staples, healthcare best contrarian plays.

Chart 1: BofA Global FMS allocation to commodities at 7-year low

Net % FMS overweight commodities

Chart 1: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Global Fund Manager Survey

Charts of the Month

Chart 2: BofA Global FMS sentiment improves modestly

Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation

Chart 2: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Our broadest measure of FMS sentiment, based on cash levels, equity allocation, and economic growth expectations, rose from 3.6 to 3.9.

 

 

Chart 3: FMS cash level down to 4.2% from 4.3%

BofA Global FMS average cash level (% of AUM)

Chart 3: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

September's improvement in sentiment saw FMS investors lower cash levels to 4.2% from 4.3%.

 

Chart 4: Global growth expectations remain weak

Net % FMS expecting global economy to get stronger next 12 months vs S&P 500 YoY% change

Chart 4: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Global growth expectations in September remained pessimistic with net 42% expecting a weaker economy, but bounced slightly from August's 8-month low of net -47%.

 

Chart 5: 79% say "soft landing," 11% "hard landing," 7% "no landing"

What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months?

Chart 5: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

On landings… FMS investor probability of a "soft landing" rose from 76% to 79%, while "no landing" dropped from 8% to 7% and "hard landing" from 13% to 11%.

 

Chart 6: Over half of FMS investors say no recession for US economy in next 18 months

When do you expect the US economy to fall into recession

Chart 6: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

52% of FMS investors believe there will be no recession for the US economy in the next 18 months.

 

Chart 7: China growth outlook at lowest in 3-year history

Net % expecting stronger Chinese economy

Chart 7: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Macro pessimism was centered on China in the September FMS… China growth expectations fell to a record low with net 18% expecting a weaker Chinese economy (most in 3-year history).

In contrast, US growth outlook improved slightly in September with net 51% expecting a weaker US economy next 12 months, down from net 56% in August.

 

Chart 8: Monetary policy viewed as most restrictive since GFC

% of FMS that say global monetary policy "too restrictive"

Chart 8: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

On monetary policy… 60% of FMS investors believe that global monetary policy is too restrictive, on par with levels last seen in the GFC and dotcom bubble.

 

Chart 9: Expectations for steeper yield curves at an all-time high

% of FMS expect yield curves to steepen in 12 months' time

Chart 9: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

90% of FMS investors think that yield curves will steepen, the most on record.

 

 

Chart 10: FMS risk appetite at 11-month low

Net % FMS taking higher than normal risk levels in investment strategy/portfolio

Chart 10: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

September saw FMS investor risk appetite at an 11-month low… net 23% of investors expressed taking lower than normal risk levels.

 

Chart 11: US recession seen as the biggest 'tail risk'

What do you consider the biggest 'tail risk'?

Chart 11: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

40% of FMS investors view US recession as the biggest 'tail risk'.

Concerns over accelerating inflation rose to 18% (from 12%), and concerns about geopolitics faded to 19% (from 25%).

 

Chart 12: US shadow banking seen as most likely source for systemic credit event

What is the most likely source for a systemic credit event?

Chart 12: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

31% of FMS investors view US shadow banking as the most likely source for a credit event.

Note rising concerns over Chinese real estate… 20% say Chinese real estate is most likely source for credit event, a 10% jump from last month.

 

Chart 13: "Long Magnificent 7" remains the most crowded trade

What do you think is currently the most crowded trade?

Chart 13: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

"Long Magnificent 7" remains the most crowded trade for the 18th consecutive month, though now the least crowded since Nov'23 per 46% of FMS investors (down from 53% in August).

19% of FMS investors say "short China equities" is the most crowded trade (up from 15% in August).

 

Chart 14: Prioritization of returning cash to shareholders at 11-year high

% FMS want companies to return cash to shareholders

Chart 14: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Asked what they would most like to see companies do with their cash flow, 31% of respondents said "return cash to shareholders" (via share buybacks/dividends/cash or debt-financed M&A), the most since Jul'13.

 

Chart 15: Biggest relative OW in defensives vs cyclicals since May'20

Net % OW defensives (utilities, staples) vs cyclicals (energy, materials, industrials) since May'20

Chart 15: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

September saw a rotation into defensive sectors and out of cyclical sectors… FMS relative net overweight in defensives (utilities & staples) vs cyclicals (energy, materials & industrials) is now the highest since May'20.

Note FMS investors are now the most OW utilities since Dec'08, at net 8% OW.

Investors are the most UW energy since Dec'20 (net 17% UW), and most UW materials since Jun'20 (net 17% UW).

 

 

Chart 16: FMS investors most UW tech relative to banks since Feb'23

Net % OW tech - net % OW banks

Chart 16: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Investors also rotated into banks and out of tech in September… allocation to banks is now highest since Feb'23 (net 12% OW), while allocation to tech is lowest since Apr'23 (net 3% OW).

On a relative basis, FMS investors are now most UW tech vs banks since Feb'23.

 

 

Chart 17: September rotation into defensives & bond-sensitives vs out of cyclicals & tech

MoM ppt change in FMS investor positioning

Chart 17: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

This chart shows September's MoM changes in FMS investor allocation.

In September, investors increased allocation to defensives (utilities & staples), Eurozone & UK, and financials (banks & insurance)…

… and reduced allocation to tech, industrials, resources (energy & materials), and commodities.

 

 

Chart 18: FMS net OW healthcare, banks, cash & bonds vs UW materials, REITs, energy

FMS absolute positioning (net % overweight)

Chart 18: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

This chart shows absolute FMS investor positioning (net % overweight).

Investors are most OW healthcare, banks, and cash vs most UW resources (materials & energy), REITs, and consumer.

 

 

Chart 19: FMS OW bond-sensitives & UK vs UW commodities, cyclicals & tech relative to history

FMS positioning vs history (z-score)

Chart 19: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

This chart shows FMS investor positioning relative to the average long-term positioning (past ~20 years).

Relative to history, investors are long defensives (utilities, healthcare, and staples) bonds, and UK…

… and are underweight energy, industrials, REITs, and tech..

 

Chart 20: Evolution of Global FMS "biggest tail risk"

History of Global FMS "biggest tail risk" answers

Chart 20: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

  • This chart shows the full history of the biggest "tail risk" for markets from BofA's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey.
  • The dominant concerns of investors since 2011 have been Eurozone debt, Chinese growth, populism, quantitative tightening & trade wars, global coronavirus, inflation, & central bank rate hikes; now recession and geopolitics.
  • US recession the top "tail risk" per 40% of FMS investors; #2 geopolitical conflict (19%), #3 inflation accelerates (18%).

Chart 21: Evolution of Global FMS "most crowded trade"

History of Global FMS "most crowded trade" answers

Chart 21: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

  • This chart shows the full history of the most "crowded trade" according to BofA's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey.
  • The market leadership has been relatively narrow since 2013, shifting from high yielding debt; long US$; long Quality; long Tech; long Emerging Markets; long US Treasuries, long US tech & growth stocks, long Bitcoin, long commodities, long tech, long commodities, long US dollar, and long Magnificent Seven.
  • Long Magnificent 7 is considered the most crowded trade (per 46% of investors) followed by #2 Short China equities (19%), and #3 Long gold (16%).

 

 

BofA Global FMS Rules & Tools

The Global FMS Rules & Tools are designed to help investors determine risk appetite, rotation opportunities, and tactical entry points.

Table 1: BofA Global FMS Cash Rule and Bull & Bear Indicator

Current reading of BofA Global FMS Cash Rule and Bull & Bear Indicator

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Category

Current reading

Current signal

BofA Global FMS Cash Rule

Contrarian

4.2%

Neutral

Buy global equities when cash at or above 5.0%; sell when cash at or below 4.0%

 

 

 

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

Contrarian

5.4

Neutral

Buy global equities when the indicator falls below 2.0; sell when it rises above 8.0

 

 

 

Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Disclaimer: The indicators identified as BofA Global FMS Cash Rule and BofA Bull & Bear Indicator above are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark.

 

For full details please see: Global Investment Strategy: The BofA Global FMS Rules & Tools, 12 November 2020.

 

Investors on the Macro

 

Chart 22: Net % of FMS investors who see a stronger global economy in next 12 months

Net % of FMS investors expecting stronger economy

 

September FMS showed net 42% of investors expecting a weaker economy in the next 12 months.

Sentiment on the economy improved 5ppt MoM.

Chart 22: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 23: How FMS investors would describe the global economy over the next 12 months

FMS expectations for the global economy over the next 12 months?

 

50% of FMS investors said they expect "stagflation" (below-trend growth & above-trend inflation), the lowest since Feb'22.

A rising 34% of investors said they expect "stagnation" (below-trend growth & below-trend inflation), the most since Oct'20.

8% said "goldilocks" (above-trend growth & below-trend inflation) and 6% said "boom" (above-trend growth & above-trend inflation).

 

Chart 23: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 24: Net % of FMS investors that think global CPI (in YoY terms) will be higher

Net % of FMS investors expecting higher inflation

 

Net 67% expect global CPI to be lower in 12 months' time, down 9ppt MoM.

Chart 24: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Investor Risk Appetite

Chart 25: Expectations for investment performance over the next 12 months

Over the next 12 months, net % FMS investors think…

 

September FMS continues to show preference for quality & high grade… net 66% say high quality earnings will outperform low quality earnings stocks, while net 29% say high grade will outperform high yield bonds.

Net 17% say value will beat growth, up 9ppt MoM to highest since Nov'23.

Chart 25: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 26: FMS investor risk-taking falls to 11-month low

What level of risk do you think you're currently taking relative to your benchmark?

Chart 26: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Net 23% of FMS investors said they were taking lower than normal risk levels, up 4ppt MoM to lowest risk tolerance since Oct'23.

 

 

Chart 27: FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator up to 2.8 from 2.7

F MS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator vs S&P 500 YoY %

 

FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator rises to 2.8 from 2.7.

The FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator is intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as a benchmark.

More info and methodology on the FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator can be found in the Nov'22 Global FMS.

Chart 27: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 28: FMS rating of potential risks to Financial Market Stability

Components of the FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator

Chart 28: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

The chart shows the individual z-scores of each response to how FMS investors rated potential risks to financial market stability since '07.

Perception of "protectionist risk" is net 76% above normal (highest since Sep'20) and "business cycle risk" is net 70% above normal (highest since Nov'23).

 

Investors on the US election

Chart 29: 42% see trade as most likely policy area to be impacted by US election

Which of the following policy areas are likely to be impacted the most by the US election?

 

Trade seen as the most likely policy area to be impacted the most by the US election by 42% of FMS investors.

A rising 20% of investors view taxation as the most likely policy area to be impacted, up from 6% in August.

 

Chart 29: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 30: US election "sweep" now seen as negative for stocks

What do you think the impact of a US election "sweep" would be on the S&P 500?

 

Asked about the impact of a "sweep" i.e. same party winning White House and Congress… 43% viewed the outcome as negative for the S&P 500 (flips from last month when 33% viewed a "sweep" as positive for stocks).

Chart 30: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

Investors on EPS & Leverage

Chart 31: Net % of FMS investors that think global corporate profit growth will improve

Net % of FMS investors saying global profits will improve

 

Net 21% of FMS investors expect global profits to deteriorate in the next 12 months, down 8ppt MoM.

FMS investors have predicted worsening profits for two months in a row.

Chart 31: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 32: Net % of FMS investors that think corporate balance sheets are overleveraged

Net % of FMS investors saying companies are overleveraged

 

Net 6% of FMS investors say companies are overleveraged, down 3ppt MoM.

Chart 32: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 33: Prioritization of companies returning cash to shareholders at 11-year high

What would you most like to see companies do with their cash flow at the current time?

 

Asked what companies should do with cash flow…3 1% of Sep'24 FMS investors said return cash to shareholders (via share buybacks/dividends/cash- or debt-financed M&A), up from 28% last month. This is the highest level since Jul'13.

28% said to increase capex (from 24% in August), while 33% said to improve balance sheets (from 40%).

Chart 33: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

FMS Asset Allocation

Chart 34: Net % AA Say they are overweight Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight equities

 

FMS equity allocation in September was net 11% overweight, unchanged from last month.

Equity allocation in the past two months has been the lowest since Jan'24.

Current allocation is 0.5 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 34: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 35: Net % AA Say they are overweight Bonds

Net% of FMS investors overweight bonds

 

FMS bond allocation is net 11% overweight, up 3ppt MoM.

FMS investors are the most overweight bonds since Dec'23.

Current allocation is 2.3 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 35: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 36: Net % AA Say they are overweight Cash

Net% of FMS investors overweight cash

 

FMS cash allocation is net 11% overweight, up 5ppt MoM.

Current allocation is 0.7 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 36: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 37: Net % AA Say they are overweight Real Estate

Net% of FMS investors overweight Real Estate

 

FMS real estate allocation jumped 11ppt MoM to net 17% underweight (5-month high).

Current allocation is 1.2 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 37: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 38: Net % AA Say they are overweight Commodities

Net% of FMS investors overweight commodities

 

FMS commodities allocation fell 4ppt MoM to net 11% underweight.

Allocation to commodities is the lowest since Jun'17, after collapsing 24ppt in 4 months.

Current allocation is 0.8 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 38: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 39: Gold Valuation and Gold Price ($/oz)

Net% of FMS investors saying gold overvalued

 

Net 25% of FMS investors say gold is overvalued, a 12ppt MoM jump to the highest level since Apr'24.

Chart 39: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

Currencies extremes

Chart 40: USD Valuation and Trade weighted index

Net% of FMS investors saying USD overvalued

 

Net 47% of FMS investors say US$ is overvalued, down 5ppt MoM.

Current valuations are 1.2 stdev above the long-term average.

 

Chart 40: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 41: EUR valuation and Trade weighted index

Net% of FMS investors saying EUR overvalued

 

Net 7% of FMS investors say EUR is undervalued, up 2ppt MoM.

Current valuations are 0.6 stdev below the long-term average.

 

Chart 41: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 42: GBP valuation and Trade weighted index

Net % of FMS investors saying GBP overvalued

 

Net 13% of FMS investors think GBP is undervalued (up 8ppt MoM), most since Dec'23.

Current valuations are 0.7 stdev below the long-term average.

 

Chart 42: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Investor Regional Equity Allocation

Chart 43: Net % AA Say they are overweight US Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight US equities

 

Allocation to US equities fell 3ppt MoM to net 8% overweight (3-month low).

Current allocation is 0.5 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 43: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 44: Net % AA Say they are overweight Eurozone Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight EU equities

 

Allocation to Eurozone equities jumped 12ppt MoM to net 8% overweight.

Current allocation is 0.3 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 44: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 45: Net % AA Say they are overweight GEM Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight EM equities

 

Allocation to EM equities is net 1% overweight, down 2ppt MoM.

Current allocation is 0.8 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 45: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 46: Net % AA Say they are overweight Japanese Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight Japanese equities

 

Allocation to Japanese equities increased 8ppt MoM to net 1% underweight.

Current allocation is 0.2 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 46: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 47: Net % AA Say they are overweight UK Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight UK equities

 

Allocation to UK equities jumped 10ppt MoM to net 2% overweight.

FMS investors are overweight UK equities for the first time since Jul'21.

Current allocation is 1.4 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 47: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

Investor Sector Allocation

Chart 48: Global Sector Sentiment

Net % overweight (% saying overweight - % saying underweight)

 

September saw FMS investors increasing allocation to utilities, financials, and staples vs reducing allocation to tech, resources, and industrials.

FMS investors are the most (net) overweight healthcare, banks, and utilities, and the most (net) underweight materials, energy, and discretionary.

Chart 48: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 49: Global Banks

Net % of FMS investors overweight banks

 

Allocation to banks rose 11ppt MoM to net 12% overweight.

Current reading is 0.7 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 49: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 50: Global Technology

Net % of FMS investors overweight technology

 

Allocation to technology fell 10ppt MoM to net 3% overweight, the lowest allocation since Apr'23.

Current reading is 1.1 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 50: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 51: Global Utilities

Net % of FMS investors overweight utilities

 

Allocation to utilities jumped 17ppt MoM to net 8% overweight.

This is the highest allocation to utilities since Dec'08.

Current reading is 2.8 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 51: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 52: Global Consumer Staples

Net % of FMS investors overweight consumer staples

 

Allocation to staples rose 7ppt MoM to net 7% overweight.

Current reading is 0.7 st dev above its long-term average.

 

Chart 52: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 53: Global Industrials

Net % of FMS investors overweight industrials

 

Allocation to industrials fell 9ppt MoM to net 8% underweight (lowest since Oct'22).

Current reading is 1.2 stdev below its long-term average.

 

Chart 53: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Chart 54: Global Healthcare

Net% of FMS investors overweight healthcare

 

Allocation to healthcare increased 4ppt MoM to net 34% overweight.

FMS investors have been overweight healthcare since Jan'18.

Current reading is 1.1 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 54: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 55: Global Materials

Net% of FMS investors overweight materials

 

Allocation to materials fell 5ppt MoM to net 17% underweight.

Current reading is 1.0 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 55: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 56: Global Energy

Net% of FMS investors overweight energy

 

Allocation to energy fell 10ppt MoM to net 17% underweight.

Current reading is 1.4 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 56: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 Global survey demographics data

Table 2: Position / Institution / Approach to Global Equity Strategy

Position / Institution / Approach to Global Equity Strategy

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Sep-24

Aug-24

Jul-24

Structure of the panel - by position

Chief Investment Officer

36

32

38

Asset Allocator / Strategist / Economist

64

58

65

Portfolio Manager

93

88

94

Other

13

11

12

 

 

 

Structure of the Panel - by expertise

Global Specialists Only

105

98

108

Regional Specialists With a Global View

101

91

101

Total # of Respondents to Global Questions

206

189

209

 

 

 

 Which of the Following Best Describes the Type of Money You are Running?

 

 

 

Institutional funds (e.g. pension funds / insurance companies)

58

57

62

Hedge funds / proprietary trading desks

26

21

26

Mutual funds / unit trusts / investment trusts

91

78

91

None of the above

31

33

30

 

 

 

 What Do You Estimate to be the Total Current Value of Assets Under Your Direct Control?

 

 

 

Up to $250mn

32

34

36

Around $500mn

25

24

26

Around $1bn

27

27

30

Around $2.5bn

31

24

29

Around $5bn

21

14

14

Around $7.5bn

7

8

6

Around $10bn or more

31

27

32

No funds under my direct control

32

31

36

Total (USD bn)

593

508

560

 

 

 

 What best describes your investment time horizon at this moment?

 

 

 

3 months or less

66

65

63

6 months

52

49

63

9 months

16

14

13

12 months or more

69

58

67

Weighted average

7.3

7.0

7.2

Don't know

3

3

3

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 Important Disclosures

 

FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicators of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst's assessment of both a stock's absolute total return potential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat or increase in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. An investment rating of 6 (No Rating) indicates that a stock is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. Analysts assign investment ratings considering, among other things, the 0-12 month total return expectation for a stock and the firm's guidelines for ratings dispersions (shown in the table below). The current price objective for a stock should be referenced to better understand the total return expectation at any given time. The price objective reflects the analyst's view of the potential price appreciation (depreciation).

Investment rating

Total return expectation (within 12-month period of date of initial rating)

Ratings dispersion guidelines for coverage clusterR1

Buy

≥ 10%

≤ 70%

Neutral

≥ 0%

≤ 30%

Underperform

N/A

≥ 20%

 R1Ratings dispersions may vary from time to time where BofA Global Research believes it better reflects the investment prospects of stocks in a Coverage Cluster.

INCOME RATINGS, indicators of potential cash dividends, are: 7 - same/higher (dividend considered to be secure), 8 - same/lower (dividend not considered to be secure) and 9 - pays no cash dividend. Coverage Cluster is comprised of stocks covered by a single analyst or two or more analysts sharing a common industry, sector, region or other classification(s). A stock's coverage cluster is included in the most recent BofA Global Research report referencing the stock. 

 

Due to the nature of strategic analysis, the issuers or securities recommended or discussed in this report are not continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers and/or securities.

BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s) responsible for this report) receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of Bank of America Corporation, including profits derived from investment banking. The analyst(s) responsible for this report may also receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of the Bank's sales and trading businesses relating to the class of securities or financial instruments for which such analyst is responsible.

 

Other Important Disclosures

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The date and time of completion of the production of any recommendation in this report shall be the date and time of dissemination of this report as recorded in the report timestamp.

 

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