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Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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Key takeaways
- Nervous bulls... 9/10 expect steeper yield curve, 8/10 forecast "soft landing", 7/10 are long "high quality" stocks
- Big Sept rotation to bond sensitives (16-year high utilities OW) from cyclicals (commodity allocation @ 7-year low)
- Tactical positioning in Sept FMS says the bigger the Fed cut, the better for cyclicals
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Notes to Readers
Source for all tables and charts:
BofA Fund Manager Survey, DataStream
Survey period 6th to 12th Sept 2024
243 panellists with $666bn AUM participated in the September survey. 206 participants with $593bn AUM responded to the Global FMS questions and 138 participants with $284bn AUM responded to the Regional FMS questions.
How to join the FMS panel
Investors/clients are encouraged to sign up to participate in the Survey. This can be done by contacting Michael Hartnett or your BofA sales representative.
Participants in the survey will continue to receive the full set of monthly results but only for the relevant month in which they participate.
OW: overweight; UW: underweight
AA: asset allocation
BofA September Global Fund Manager Survey
    Bottom Line: global sentiment improves for 1st time since June on "Fed cuts = soft landing" optimism… cash level dips to 4.2%, BofA Bull & Bear Indicator dips to 5.4; but investors best described as "nervous bulls"… Sept FMS shows big rotation to bond sensitives (e.g. utilities OW highest since 2008) from cyclicals (e.g. commodity allocation @ 7-year low)… tactically Sept FMS says the bigger the Fed cut, the better for cyclicals.
FMS Big Convictions: 9/10 investors positioned for steeper yield curve, 8/10 investors forecast "soft landing", 7/10 investors say high quality to outperform low quality stocks.
FMS on Macro: global growth expectations low but bounce to -42%; "soft landing" forecast by 79% of investors (11% say hard landing, 7% say no landing), and 2/3 say recession "unlikely" despite 3-year low in China growth optimism; note investor desire for corporations to use cash to boost shareholder payouts @ 11-year high.
FMS on Policy & Risk: 6/10 say monetary policy "too restrictive" (16-year high), and record 90% see steeper yield curve; FMS risk appetite at 11-month low; most crowded trade "long Magnificent 7" say 46%, but "short China stocks" & "long gold" on rise.
FMS on AA: equity OW unchanged (net 11%) but commodity allocation slumps to lowest since Jun'17 (Chart 1); FMS most OW utilities since Dec'08, most OW banks since Feb'23, most OW staples since Sep'23, smallest OW tech since Apr'23, most UW energy since Dec'20, most UW materials since Jun'20… big shifts from global cyclicals to bond sensitives… note investors expecting value to outperform growth at 10-month high.
FMS Contrarian Trades: FMS positions say long commodities, China, resources, tech, REITs, discretionary, and short bonds, utilities, staples, healthcare best contrarian plays.
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Charts of the Month
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- This chart shows the full history of the biggest "tail risk" for markets from BofA's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey.
- The dominant concerns of investors since 2011 have been Eurozone debt, Chinese growth, populism, quantitative tightening & trade wars, global coronavirus, inflation, & central bank rate hikes; now recession and geopolitics.
- US recession the top "tail risk" per 40% of FMS investors; #2 geopolitical conflict (19%), #3 inflation accelerates (18%).
- This chart shows the full history of the most "crowded trade" according to BofA's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey.
- The market leadership has been relatively narrow since 2013, shifting from high yielding debt; long US$; long Quality; long Tech; long Emerging Markets; long US Treasuries, long US tech & growth stocks, long Bitcoin, long commodities, long tech, long commodities, long US dollar, and long Magnificent Seven.
- Long Magnificent 7 is considered the most crowded trade (per 46% of investors) followed by #2 Short China equities (19%), and #3 Long gold (16%).
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BofA Global FMS Rules & Tools
The Global FMS Rules & Tools are designed to help investors determine risk appetite, rotation opportunities, and tactical entry points.
Disclaimer: The indicators identified as BofA Global FMS Cash Rule and BofA Bull & Bear Indicator above are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark.
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For full details please see: Global Investment Strategy: The BofA Global FMS Rules & Tools, 12 November 2020.
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Investors on the Macro
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Investors on the US election
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Investors on EPS & Leverage
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Currencies extremes
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