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Key takeaways
- Wall St (painfully) has now stopped BoJ hikes...Wall St's next goal appears to be bossing the Fed into big rate cuts
- Real rates for small businesses too high...big cuts needed to avert hard landing
- Buy assets strangled by 5% yields that breathe more easily with yields 3-4%
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Scores on the Doors: crypto 17.2%, gold 16.9%, stocks 8.9%, oil 6.3%, HY bonds 4.7%, commodities 3.3%, cash 3.2%, IG bonds 1.9%, US$ 1.9%, govt bonds -0.8% YTD.
Ze itgeist: "The Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate going forward", BoJ July 31st; "The Bank will not raise its policy rates when markets unstable", BoJ Aug 7th; painfully (biggest FX carry-trade loss since Mar'20 - Chart 3) Wall St has now stopped BoJ hiking; Wall St's Aug/Sept goal now appears to be bossing the Fed into big rate cuts.
The Biggest Picture: lowest interest rate  small businesses can borrow at is prime, and in real terms US prime rate is 6.5%, highest this century (Chart 2); higher-for-longer real rates slowly and decisively hurting US consumer & labor market (Chart 4); global rate cuts no longer question of "if" or "when", simply question of "will cuts work"; we say big cuts needed to work…note China 30-year bond yield at new all-time low (Chart 5).
The Price is Right: technical levels that would flip Wall St narrative from soft to hard landing have not been broken…4% on 30-year Treasury, 400bps on HY CDX, 5050 on S&P500…good news; important now for stock leaders SOX (4600) & big tech XLK (200) to hold 200dma levels…if levels break, traders then target 2021 highs (i.e. 10% lower).
More on page 2…
  Weekly Flows: $80.8bn to cash, $10.0bn to bonds, $9.7bn to stocks, $0.1bn from crypto, $0.5bn from gold.
Flows to Know:
- HY bonds: largest outflow since Oct'23 ($2.7bn - Chart 7);
- Bank loans: largest outflow since Mar'20 ($2.6bn - Chart 8);
- TIPS: largest inflow since Apr'22 ($0.5bn);
- Japan stocks: 3rd largest inflow YTD ($4.0bn)…investors bought dip;
- Europe stocks: largest outflow since Sep'23 ($2.4bn);
- Financials: biggest outflow since Nov'23 ($1.1bn);
- Tech: 6th week of inflows ($3.3bn).
The Flow to Know: flows around systemic market blowups in past 25 years illustrated in Table 1, and no surprise no strong pattern in run-up to big unanticipated events; pattern of flows after such events is consistent…redemptions for 6-12 weeks.
BofA Private Clients: $3.6tn AUM…61.3% stocks, 20.5% bonds, 11.3% cash; we see absolutely no sign of retail capitulation in past week…BofA private clients sold T-bills & bought stocks; in ETFs private clients in past 4 weeks buying utilities, tech, munis, and selling staples, TIPS, materials.
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: drops to 6.3 from 6.6 on HY bond outflows, credit technicals, worsening stock index breadth; note hedge funds cut Japan yen shorts at fastest pace since Covid, while BofA Global Flow Trading Rule 'sell' signal ends (Table 4).
On Sentiment: investor feedback is "frazzled" but consensus base case of "Fed cuts = >75% probability of soft landing = stocks>bonds, cyclicals>defensives, large tech>small cap, US>RoW" has not been ended by recent BoJ/US payroll/AI shakeout.
On Policy & Profits:  soft landing contingent on signs that lower interest rates in H2 boost animal spirits & spending…price action in biotech (longest duration equity) no bueno and no lift yet to US retail stocks (consumer discretionary at 12-year relative lows); key signals to watch H2…a. housing (mortgage purchase apps close to lowest levels since 1995, refi lowest since 2000)…so many millennial parents waiting years to buy house…if they not buying now indicates big worries re labor market); b. small business sentiment that has been depressed by high funding costs (and tax/regulation)… should next NFIB survey (Tuesday) show lift in business confidence index from 92 to >98 (50-year average) would be big optimistic signal.
On Opportunity: we remain in "sell the 1st cut" camp; leadership of AI (see AI & fave AI-derivative plays - Chart 6) set to wallow in H2 until EPS gains more visible; we see relative opportunities in assets that were strangled by 5% yields and can breathe more easily with yields 3-4%...government bonds (obvs), REITs, small cap, some of the distressed EM's like Brazil (weak dollar plays), big opportunities in housing opportunities in UK, Canada, Australia, NZ, Sweden, all floating mortgage rate markets where transmission mechanism from rates to animal spirits much quicker than in US; and finally no doubt that best opportunity to buy on a "hard landing" negative payroll print in coming months will likely be global retail stocks which (just like REITs a few months back) have discounted recession.
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Asset Class Flows (Table 2)
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BofA private client flows & allocations
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The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns
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BofA Rules & Tools
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BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B)
Our BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is at 6.3 signal is Neutral.
Disclaimer: The indicators identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator, MVP Model, BofA Global Breadth Rule, BofA EM Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global FMS Macro Indicator, BofA Global FMS Cash Rule, Global Wave, Sell-Side Indicator, and Global Financial Stress Indicator are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark.
The analysis of the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator in this report is back-tested and does not represent the actual performance of any account or fund. Back-tested performance depicts the hypothetical back-tested performance of a particular strategy over the time period indicated. In future periods, market and economic conditions will differ and the same strategy will not necessarily produce the same results. No representation is being made that any actual portfolio is likely to have achieved returns similar to those shown herein. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between back-tested returns and the actual results realized in the actual management of a portfolio. Back-tested performance results are created by applying an investment strategy or methodology to historical data and attempts to give an indication as to how a strategy might have performed during a certain period in the past if the product had been in existence during such time. Back-tested results have inherent limitations including the fact that they are calculated with the full benefit of hindsight, which allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted to maximize the returns. Further, the results shown do not reflect actual trading or the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on a portfolio manager's decision-making under actual circumstances.  Back-tested returns do not reflect advisory fees, trading costs, or other fees or expenses.
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2024 Cross-Asset Winners & Losers
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Acronyms
FMS - Fund Manager Survey
ECI: Employment cost index
GWIM - Global Wealth and Investment Management
MMF - Money Market Fund
YCC - Yield Curve Control
QE - Quantitative Easing
QT - Quantitative Tightening
S&L - Savings & Loan
FCI - Financial conditions index
AUM - Assets Under Management
U-rate - unemployment rate
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