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Key takeaways
- US dollar breaking down despite 5% Treasury yields as DOGE replaced by deficits & tax cuts
- Long US$ = summer pain trade but Profits & Policy keep us long weak dollar plays, gold, EM, international
- AI bullish or bearish for bonds?...investors say best to navigate via yield curve steepeners
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Scores on the Doors: gold 27.7%, stocks 6.7%, govt bonds 6.1%, IG 5.8%, HY bonds 5.0%, cash 1.8%, commodities -1.7%, US dollar -8.9%, crypto -10.0%, oil -12.4% YTD.
Zeitgeist I:Â "Trump cuts taxes like a Republican, spends like a Democrat, DOGE was a bust, tariffs are a bust, so only way he gets the deficit down to 3% of GDP is via max pumping GDP and hoping Bessent can sweet talk the vigilantes," bond bear.
Zeitgeist II: "It's like the '80s deregulation boom and the '90s tech boom all at the same time," stock bull.
Zeitgeist III: "If the US is so exceptional, why does it need tariffs?" dollar bear.
Zeitgeist IV: "A year ago with all the student debt forgiveness stuff I was dreaming I might not need to save to put the kids through college, but now with all this AI stuff I'll ​need to work longer and save more to fund my jobless kids after college," NJ dad.
The Price is Right: broker-dealers @ 16-year high vs. homebuilders (Chart 3) as Gen Z/Millennials shun unaffordable housing, choose to save for future/hedge AI via stocks & crypto (U-rate of 20-24 year old graduates 6% past 3 months, up from 4% in Dec'23).
Tale of the Tape:Â US dollar breaking down despite 5% Treasury yields (Chart 4) because US government spending $7 trillion, revenues $5tn, deficit $2tn, national debt $36tn, Big Beautiful Bill set to raise debt by $1.5tn before '28 election, House/Senate to raise debt ceiling $4-5tn with July passage of bill.
The Biggest Picture: "bro billionaire" stock basket +45% since election, Trump "base" Russell 2000 -7%…tariffs, tax cuts, reshoring, deregulation, but no bid for the little guys.
More on page 2…
 Weekly Flows: $94.8bn to cash, $15.8bn to bonds, $5.4bn to equities, $1.9bn to gold, $0.2bn from crypto.
Weekly Flows to Know:
- Cash: biggest inflow since Jan'25 ($94.8bn);
- Crypto: 1st outflow in 7 weeks ($0.2bn);
- IG & HY bonds: strongest 4-week inflow since Oct'24 ($13.7bn this week);
- EM: strongest inflow to EM equities & debt in 8 weeks ($4.8bn);
- Healthcare: biggest outflow since Dec'24 ($1.3bn).
YTD Flows to Know: annualized flows thus far in '25…
- Cash…$972bn inflow (3rd largest inflow year ever - Chart 12);
- Gold…$75bn (record inflow year - Chart 13);
- Crypto…$28bn inflow (2nd biggest year ever - Chart 14);
- Treasuries…$166bn inflow (3rd largest ever - Chart 15);
- IG/HY bonds…$263bn inflow (4th biggest year ever - Chart 16);
- Equities…$515bn inflow (2nd biggest year ever - Chart 17);
- US equities…$328bn inflow (3rd biggest year ever - Chart 18);
- Leveraged ETFs…$21bn inflow…(2nd biggest year ever - Chart 19).
BofA Private Clients: $3.9tn AUM…63.0% stocks, 19.0% bonds, 11.0% cash; equity allocation at 6-month high, bond allocation at 4-month low, cash allocation at 6-month low; in ETFs in past 4 weeks private clients buying utilities, staples, and Japan stocks past 4 weeks, selling dividend, energy, and municipal bonds.
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: up to 4.4 from 4.1 on bullish inflows to HY & EM bonds, bullish breadth of global stock indices, smaller hedge fund longs in 2-year US Treasuries and Japanese yen futures.
 BofA Global Flow Trading Rule: when flows to global equity & high yield bonds exceed 1.0% of AUM in 4 weeks…sell, and when outflows >1.0% of AUM...buy; past 4 weeks inflows to stocks/HY bonds = 0.9% of AUM, close to "sell signal" that would be triggered if global equity funds see inflows >$30bn and HY bonds see inflows >$1.5bn in coming weeks.
BofA Global Breadth Rule: when >88% of MSCI ACWI country stock indices trading above 50-& 200-day moving averages…sell, and when >88% trading below…buy; currently 84% trading >50/200dma…market overbought territory.
On Price I: YTD gold +27%, international stocks +16%, govt bonds +6%, corporate bonds +6%, US stocks +1%, US dollar -9%; Price & Positioning say long US dollar is summer pain trade, but Profits & Policy keep us long weak dollar plays, such as gold, Emerging Markets, international stocks (consensus is long US tech & global banks), better buyer of 5% yields than 6k stocks. Â
On Price II: Swiss bond yields out 5 years are now negative (Chart 5), as SNB expected to counter Swiss franc appreciation and Swiss CPI -0.1% deflation via (31% probability); prospect of NIRP (negative interest rate policy) returning in Europe (31% probability SNB takes policy rates negative June 19th) makes 5% bond yields attractive (UK 10-year gilt yield vs Swiss 10-year govt bond yield at highest since 1991 - Chart 6).
On Payrolls: May payrolls <75k = bond bullish, >175k bond bearish; note service sector ISM (activity index @ lowest level since May'20) correlated with payrolls (service sector = 72% of payrolls - Chart 10), suggests payroll trend is weakening.
On Profits: BofA Global EPS Model forecasts modest deceleration in consensus forward EPS from 7% YoY in May to 3% in Sept, driven by Asian export growth drop from 11% to 7%, global manufacturing PMIs trending ~50 range, easy-but-steady China financial conditions, lagged impact of US yield curve inversion (Chart 8); in US ISM business surveys remain highly correlated with profits and payrolls, inventory/sales ratios lead ISMs by 3 months, and currently predict in coming months manufacturing ISM up to 50-51 from 48.5, service sector ISM stays below 50; readings neither recessionary, but also inconsistent with EPS acceleration required to significantly extend big SPX jump from 5K to 6k (Chart 9), improve narrow breadth (SGX growth vs SGV value highest since Nov'21).
On Policy:  Trump pivot from small back to big government, from tariffs to tax cuts = US macro positive; but we say 2025 policy shifts more bullish for Rest-of-World…1. 15 global central bank rate cuts in May (most since Dec'24 - Chart 11), and EM central banks driving monetary easing YTD (10 cuts last month, 29 YTD), 2. Trump geopolitical success via unheralded "Riyadh Accord" (Saudi/OPEC+ higher oil production in exchange for no Russia sanctions, military support for Middle East) caps oil prices, puts downward pressure on US gas prices (Chart 7), but really positive for Europe, Japan, China, India oil importers, 3.  US deficits will remain large but see new fiscal excess in Europe/Asia.
Summer Policy Dates: June 15th to July 4th likely sees tariff war shifting to peace, peak global defense spend expectations, US tax cuts cemented…
- June 15th: G7 Summit (Canada)…expect trade deals announced in advance;
- June 19th: SNB meeting…21% probability Swiss reintroduce Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP);
- June 24th: NATO summit (Netherlands)…32 members commit to spend 3.5% of GDP of defense, 5% of GDP on national security by 2032;
- July 4th: Trump potentially signs "The One Big Beautiful Bill Act" into law (target date for GOP lawmakers);
- July 6th: BRICS summit (Brazil)…no official confirmation of Xi/Putin attendance;
- July 8th: Trump 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs with 57 countries ends (US tariff rate would jump from 10% to 20%), likely ends without a bang;
- July (late): mooted China-EU summit (Beijing);
- Sep 3rd: Putin to visit China for 80th anniversary of end of World War II;
- Sep 17th: FOMC…98% probability of rate cut.
AI & Bonds: "Is AI bullish or bearish for US Treasuries?" = big existential question; AI = bullish bonds if U-rate rises allowing productivity (trend = 1.5%) up, unit labor costs down (trend), and inflation falls; AI = bearish if AI causes equity bubble (= higher yields), higher oil prices given energy needs, forces governments to combat AI unemployment via higher deficits/Fed to support deficits via QE/YCC (US dollar -ve); Â most bond investors believe best to navigate via yield curve steepeners.
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Asset Class Flows (Table 1)
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BofA private client flows & allocations
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The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns
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BofA Rules & Tools
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BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B)
Our BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is at 4.4 signal is Neutral.
Disclaimer: The indicators identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator, MVP Model, BofA Global Breadth Rule, BofA EM Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global FMS Macro Indicator, BofA Global FMS Cash Rule, Global Wave, Sell-Side Indicator, and Global Financial Stress Indicator are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark.
The analysis of the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator in this report is back-tested and does not represent the actual performance of any account or fund. Back-tested performance depicts the hypothetical back-tested performance of a particular strategy over the time period indicated. In future periods, market and economic conditions will differ and the same strategy will not necessarily produce the same results. No representation is being made that any actual portfolio is likely to have achieved returns similar to those shown herein. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between back-tested returns and the actual results realized in the actual management of a portfolio. Back-tested performance results are created by applying an investment strategy or methodology to historical data and attempts to give an indication as to how a strategy might have performed during a certain period in the past if the product had been in existence during such time. Back-tested results have inherent limitations including the fact that they are calculated with the full benefit of hindsight, which allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted to maximize the returns. Further, the results shown do not reflect actual trading or the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on a portfolio manager's decision-making under actual circumstances.  Back-tested returns do not reflect advisory fees, trading costs, or other fees or expenses.
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2025 Cross-Asset Winners & Losers
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Acronyms
FMS - Fund Manager Survey
GWIM - Global Wealth and Investment Management
MA - Moving average
MMF - Money Market Fund
FCI - Financial conditions index
AUM - Assets Under Management
U-rate - unemployment rate
RoW - Rest of World
CRFB - Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
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