Global Fund Manager Survey

The Bear Necessities

Authored By
Analyst Name Michael Hartnett
Analyst Email michael.hartnett@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 1508
Analyst Name Elyas Galou
Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Analyst Email elyas.galou@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofASE (France)
Analyst Phone +33 1 8770 0087
Analyst Name Anya Shelekhin
Analyst Email anya.shelekhin@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 3753
Analyst Name Myung-Jee Jung
Analyst Email myung-jee.jung@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 0389
Report Details
15 April 2025 Investment Strategy Global

Global Fund Manager Survey

The Bear Necessities

Authored By
Analyst Name Michael Hartnett
Analyst Email michael.hartnett@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 1508
Analyst Name Elyas Galou
Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Analyst Email elyas.galou@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofASE (France)
Analyst Phone +33 1 8770 0087
Analyst Name Anya Shelekhin
Analyst Email anya.shelekhin@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 3753
Analyst Name Myung-Jee Jung
Analyst Email myung-jee.jung@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 0389
Report Details
15 April 2025 Investment Strategy Global
Glossary
displayAudiocast is false

 

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.

>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.

Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

 

 

Key takeaways
  • 5th most bearish FMS in past 25 years as tariffs drive global growth expectations to 30-year lows
  • Peak "US exceptionalism" say 73%, investors set to cut US stocks at record high, US$ outlook worst since '06
  • Contrarian trade...long US stocks, US$, cyclicals, short gold, bonds, defensives if tariff reversal, resilient macro

BofA Data Analytics


Global Fund Manager Survey

 

Notes to Readers

Source for all tables and charts:
BofA Fund Manager Survey, DataStream

Survey period 4th to 10th Apr 2025

195 panellists with $444bn AUM participated in the April survey. 164 participants with $386bn AUM responded to the Global FMS questions and 106 participants with $204bn AUM responded to the Regional FMS questions.

How to join the FMS panel

Investors/clients are encouraged to sign up to participate in the Survey. This can be done by contacting Michael Hartnett or your BofA sales representative.

Participants in the survey will continue to receive the full set of monthly results but only for the relevant month in which they participate.

OW: overweight; UW: underweight

AA: asset allocation

 

Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA April Global Fund Manager Survey

     Bottom line: 5th most bearish FMS in past 25 years, 4th highest recession expectations of past 20 years, record no. of global investors intending to cut US stocks (Chart 1); FMS max bearish on macro, not quite max bearish on market ("peak fear" norm is ≈6% cash level vs 4.8% today); but our FMS says a. April asset price lows to hold near-term, b. big upside needs big tariff easing, big Fed rate cuts, and/or economic data resilience.

On Macro & Policy: net 82% of respondents say global economy to weaken (30-year high), 42% say recession likely, inflation expectations highest since Jun'21, probability of "hard" landing surges to 49% (vs 37% "soft," 3% "no" landing); 41% of investors predict 3 or more Fed cuts on sharp deterioration of "liquidity conditions."

On Tail Risks & Crowds: #1 crowded trade: "long gold" (49%), not "long Mag 7" for 1st time since Mar'23; #1 tail risk: "trade war = recession"; 73% say "US exceptionalism" has peaked, as FMS outlook for both US$ & US profits rated worst since 2006/07.

On Allocation: record increase in bond allocation, global equity allocation lowest since Jul'23, US stock allocation sees largest 2-month drop ever; investors most UW cyclicals vs defensives since May'20, cut industrials (most UW since Aug'11), tech (most UW since Nov'22), banks, discretionary, add utilities (most OW since Dec'08), pharma & staples.

Contrarian trades: lower tariffs & big Fed cuts…long US stocks, US$, global cyclicals, and short gold, bonds, defensives; but if recession concerns turn into reality…short EU & EM stocks, and bonds (US capital flight + global fiscal panic).

Chart 1: Record number of FMS global investors intending to cut US equities

US equity intentions: want to overweight vs underweight

Chart 1: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Global Fund Manager Survey

Charts of the Month

Chart 2: BofA Global FMS investor sentiment sinks to 5th lowest level on record

Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation

Chart 2: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Our broadest measure of FMS sentiment, based on cash levels, equity allocation, global growth expectations fell to 1.8 in April from 3.8 in March, the lowest level since Oct'23.

The current level of sentiment is the 5th lowest on record (behind 2001, 2009, 2019 and 2022).

Note April Global FMS data causes BofA Bull & Bear Indicator to drop from 4.8 to 4.5.

 

Chart 3: FMS cash surges to 4.8%...biggest 2-month jump since Apr'20

BofA Global FMS average cash level (%)

Chart 3: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

BofA FMS cash level rose to 4.8%, up 125bps since Feb'25…the largest 2-month increase since Apr'20.

Note FMS cash levels averaged 6.2% in the 9 prior highs since 1999 (May'00, Feb'01, Oct'01, Mar'03, Dec'08, Jun'12, Oct'16, Apr'20, and Oct'22).

 

Chart 4: 49% say "hard landing," 37% "soft landing," 3% "no landing"

What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months?

Chart 4: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

"Hard landing" expectations jumped in April to 49% (up from 11% in March).

Meanwhile, expectations for "soft landing" fell to 37% (from 64%) and "no landing" to 3% (from 19%).

 

 

Chart 5: Global growth expectations slump to record 30-year low

Net % expecting stronger global economy and S&P 500 (YoY %)

Chart 5: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Expectations for the global economy fell to a record low in April, dropping to net 82% expecting weaker global growth (down from 44% in March).

 

Chart 6: Recession expectations rise to 4th highest level in past 20 years

Net % expecting higher global CPI & net % expecting higher short-term rates

Chart 6: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Net 42% of investors expect a global recession, the most since Jun'23 and the 4th highest level in the past 20 years.

Big flip from last month's net 52% saying a recession was unlikely.

 

Chart 7: Inflation expectations highest since Jun'21

Net % expecting higher global CPI & net % expecting higher short-term rates

Chart 7: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

On inflation expectations…net 57% of FMS investors expect higher global CPI in 12 months' time, the highest level since Jun'21.

Expectations for higher inflation surged 50ppt vs March, the biggest MoM increase since Mar'22.

 

Chart 8: Investors say US profit outlook most unfavorable since Nov'07

Net % say US profit outlook is favorable

Chart 8: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Investors have turned negative on US profit outlook…net 28% say that the outlook for US profits is unfavorable, the most since Nov'07.

 

Chart 9: Expectations for US dollar depreciation highest since May'06

Net % expect US dollar to appreciate

Chart 9: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Net 61% expect the US dollar to depreciate over the next 12 months, the most since May'06.

 

 

Chart 10: Fed rate cut expectations

How will the Fed change the federal funds rate in 2025?

Chart 10: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

On Fed rate cut expectations…

  1. 34% of investors expect 2 cuts,
  2. 25% say 3 cuts,
  3. 16% say 4 cuts or more,
  4. 13% say 1 cut,
  5. 9% say no change.

 

Chart 11: Investor perception of liquidity drops to 2-year low

Net % rate liquidity conditions as positive

Chart 11: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Investors' rating of liquidity conditions fell to the lowest since Mar'23…just net 4% say liquidity conditions are good.

 

 

Chart 12: Investor risk appetite also falls to 2-year low

Net % taking higher than normal risk levels

Chart 12: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Asked about current risk appetite…net 46% of investors said they are taking lower than normal levels of risk, the lowest since May'23.

 

Chart 13: "US exceptionalism" theme has peaked

Do you think the theme of US exceptionalism has peaked?

Chart 13: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

The theme of "US exceptionalism" has peaked, according to 73% of investors.

 

Chart 14: 63% of FMS investors say US tax cuts will not boost US growth in H2'25

Do you believe US tax cuts will boost US growth in H2'25?

Chart 14: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Turning to policy…63% of investors do not believe US tax cuts will boost US growth in the 2nd half of the year.

 

Chart 15: 63% of FMS investors expect China stimulus to boost growth in H2'25

Do you believe China economic stimulus will accelerate Chinese growth in H2'25?

Chart 15: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

On the other hand, 63% do expect economic stimulus in China will accelerate Chinese growth in H2'25.

 

 

Chart 16: Trade war triggering a global recession seen as the biggest 'tail risk'

What do you consider the biggest 'tail risk'?

Chart 16: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Trade war triggering a global recession is viewed as the biggest 'tail risk' according to 80% of investors, the largest concentration for a 'tail risk' in 15-year history.

 

 

Chart 17: "Long gold" the most crowded trade

What do you think is currently the most crowded trade?

Chart 17: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

On crowded trades…"long gold" (49%) ends a 24-month streak for "long Magnificent 7" (24%…1st time not the most crowded trade since Mar'23).

 

 

Chart 18: 42% say gold best performing asset in 2025

Which of the following do you expect to be the best performing asset class in 2025?

Chart 18: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Gold also expected to be the best performing asset in 2025 per 42% of investors (up from 23% in March).

'Global equities' falls to 4th place at just 11% (down from 1st place in March at 39%).

 

 

Chart 19: FMS equity allocation lowest since Jul'23

Net % overweight global equities

Chart 19: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Investors' allocation to global equities fell to net 17% underweight in April, the most underweight since Jul'23.

Allocation to equities has fallen 52ppts since Feb'25, the biggest 2-month drop since Apr'20.

 

Chart 20: Record 2-month rotation out of US stocks

Net % overweight US equities

Chart 20: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Allocation to US equities dropped to net 36% underweight, the most underweight since May'23.

Since Feb'25 allocation to US equities has dropped 53ppt, a record 2-month decline.

 

Chart 21: Tech allocation pulls back to lowest since Nov'22

Net % overweight technology

Chart 21: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Allocation to tech pulled back in April to net 17% underweight, the lowest allocation since Nov'22 and more than 2stdev below the average of the past 23 years.

 

Chart 22: Utilities allocation rises to highest since GFC

Net % overweight utilities

Chart 22: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Allocation to utilities rose net 10% overweight, the highest allocation since Dec'08.

 

Chart 23: April rotation into bonds, cash & defensives and out of industrials, stocks & Eurozone

Monthly change in FMS investor positioning

Chart 23: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

This chart shows April's monthly changes in FMS investor allocation.

Investors increased allocation to bonds, cash, and defensives (utilities, healthcare & staples)…

…and reduced allocation to industrials, stocks, and Eurozone.

 

 

Chart 24: FMS net OW healthcare, cash, Eurozone & UW

FMS absolute positioning (net % overweight)

Chart 24: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

This chart shows absolute FMS investor positioning (net % overweight).

In April, investors are most overweight healthcare, cash, and Eurozone stocks vs most underweight US stocks, energy, and consumer discretionary.

 

 

Chart 25: Relative to history FMS OW utilities, bonds, staples vs UW tech, energy, industrials

FMS positioning vs history (z-score)

Chart 25: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

This chart shows FMS investor positioning relative to the average long-term positioning (past ~20 years).

Relative to history, investors are overweight utilities, bonds, staples & UK stocks…

…and are underweight tech, energy, industrials & US stocks.

 

 

Chart 26: Evolution of Global FMS "biggest tail risk"

History of Global FMS "biggest tail risk" answers

Chart 26: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

  • This chart shows the full history of the biggest "tail risk" for markets from BofA's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey.
  • The dominant concerns of investors since 2011 have been Eurozone debt, Chinese growth, populism, quantitative tightening & trade wars, global coronavirus, inflation, & central bank rate hikes; now geopolitics, trade war 2.0 and recession.
  • The top "tail risk" is "trade war triggers global recession" at 80%.

Chart 27: Evolution of Global FMS "most crowded trade"

History of Global FMS "most crowded trade" answers

Chart 27: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

  • This chart shows the full history of the most "crowded trade" according to BofA's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey.
  • The market leadership has been relatively narrow since 2013, shifting from high yielding debt; long US$; long Quality; long Tech; long Emerging Markets; long US Treasuries, long US tech & growth stocks, long Bitcoin, long commodities, long tech, long commodities, long US dollar, and long Magnificent Seven.
  • Long Gold is considered the most crowded trade (per 49% of investors) followed by #2 long Magnificent 7 (24%), and #3 long EU stocks (10%).

 

 

BofA Global FMS Rules & Tools

The Global FMS Rules & Tools are designed to help investors determine risk appetite, rotation opportunities, and tactical entry points.

Table 1: BofA Global FMS Cash Rule and Bull & Bear Indicator

Current reading of BofA Global FMS Cash Rule and Bull & Bear Indicator

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Category

Current reading

Current signal

BofA Global FMS Cash Rule

Contrarian

4.8%

Neutral

Buy global equities when cash at or above 5.0%; sell when cash at or below 4.0%

 

 

 

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

Contrarian

4.5

Neutral

Buy global equities when the indicator falls below 2.0; sell when it rises above 8.0

 

 

 

Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Disclaimer: The indicators identified as BofA Global FMS Cash Rule and BofA Bull & Bear Indicator above are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark.

 

For full details please see: Global Investment Strategy: The BofA Global FMS Rules & Tools, 12 November 2020.

 

Investors on the Macro

 

Chart 28: Net % of FMS investors who see a stronger global economy in next 12 months

Net % of FMS investors expecting stronger economy

 

On the macro…

April FMS showed net 82% of investors expecting a weaker economy in the next 12 month…most on record.

Global growth expectations have collapsed 80ppt in the past 2 months.

Chart 28: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 29: How FMS investors would describe the global economy over the next 12 months

FMS expectations for the global economy over the next 12 months?

 

90% of FMS investors say they expect "stagflation" (below-trend growth & above-trend inflation)…highest since Nov'22.

5% of investors say "stagnation" (below-trend growth & below-trend inflation), while just 1% said "boom" (above-trend growth & above-trend inflation), and 0% said "goldilocks" (above-trend growth & below-trend inflation).

 

Chart 29: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 30: Net % of FMS investors that think global CPI (in YoY terms) will be higher

Net % of FMS investors expecting higher inflation

 

Net 57% expect global CPI to be higher in 12 months' time…highest inflation expectations since Jun'21.

Inflation expectations surged 50ppt MoM…biggest monthly increase since Mar'22.

Chart 30: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Investor Risk Appetite

Chart 31: Expectations for investment performance over the next 12 months

Over the next 12 months, net % FMS investors think…

 

Per April FMS …

Net 80% say high-quality will outperform low-quality earnings…highest since Oct'22.

Net 65% say high dividend yield will outperform low dividend yield stocks…most since Apr'22.

Net 43% expect large cap to beat small cap…most since May'23.

Chart 31: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 32: FMS investors taking higher than normal risk levels

What level of risk do you think you're currently taking relative to your benchmark?

Chart 32: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Net 46% of FMS investors are taking lower than normal risk levels…lowest risk tolerance since May'23.

 

Chart 33: FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator rises to 5.1

FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator vs S&P 500 YoY %

 

FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator rises to 5.1 from 1.6.

The FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator is intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as a benchmark.

More info and methodology on the FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator can be found in the Nov'22 Global FMS.

Chart 33: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 34: FMS rating of potential risks to Financial Market Stability

Components of the FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator

Chart 34: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

The chart shows the individual z-scores of each response to how FMS investors rated potential risks to financial market stability since '07.

6 out of 7 underlying risk components rosed in April…

Counterparty risk rose to net 28% above normal, the highest since Jun'23.

Business cycle risk rose to net 74% above normal, the highest since Jul'23.

 

 

 

Investors on EPS & Leverage

Chart 35: Net % of FMS investors that think global corporate profit growth will improve

Net % of FMS investors saying global profits will improve

 

On corporates and profits…

Net 80% of FMS investors expect global profits to deteriorate in the next 12 months.

Global profit expectations have collapsed 91ppt in the past 2 months, to the lowest level since Oct'22.

Chart 35: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 36: Net % of FMS investors that think corporate balance sheets are overleveraged

Net% of FMS investors saying companies are overleveraged

 

Net 12% of FMS investors say companies are overleveraged (up 6ppt MoM).

Chart 36: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 37: What would you most like to see companies do with cash flow?

What FMS investors would most like to see companies do with cash flow

 

Asked what companies should do with cash flow…43% said to improve balance sheets…highest since Jan'24.

24% said return cash to shareholders while 23% said increase capital spending.

Chart 37: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

FMS Asset Allocation

Chart 38: Net % AA Say they are overweight Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight equities

 

On asset allocation…

FMS equity allocation dropped to net 17% underweight…most underweight since Jul'23.

In the past two months, global equity allocation has collapsed 52ppt (most since Apr'20).

Current allocation is 1.6 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 38: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 39: Net % AA Say they are overweight Bonds

Net% of FMS investors overweight bonds

 

FMS bond allocation is net 17% overweight…up from net 13% underweight a month ago.

FMS investors are most overweight bonds since Dec'23.

Current allocation is 2.5 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 39: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 40: Net % AA Say they are overweight Cash

Net% of FMS investors overweight cash

 

FMS cash allocation jumped 15ppt MoM to net 25% overweight.

Cash allocation is highest since Oct'23.

Current allocation is 0.2 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 40: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 41: Net % AA Say they are overweight Real Estate

Net% of FMS investors overweight Real Estate

 

FMS real estate allocation is net 11% underweight (vs. net 7% underweight a month ago).

Current allocation is 0.6 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 41: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 42: Net % AA Say they are overweight Commodities

Net% of FMS investors overweight commodities

 

FMS commodities allocation is net 8% underweight (-7ppt MoM).

Current allocation is 0.6 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 42: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 43: Gold Valuation and Gold Price ($/oz)

Net% of FMS investors saying gold overvalued

 

Net 34% of FMS investors say gold is overvalued (5-month high).

Chart 43: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

Currencies extremes

Chart 44: USD Valuation and Trade weighted index

Net% of FMS investors saying USD overvalued

 

On currencies…

Net 69% of FMS investors say US$ is overvalued…up 10ppt MoM to highest since Dec'22.

Current valuation is 1.8 stdev above the long-term average.

 

Chart 44: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 45: EUR valuation and Trade weighted index

Net% of FMS investors saying EUR overvalued

 

Net 39% of FMS investors say EUR is undervalued…most since Oct'22.

Current valuation is 1.6 stdev below the long-term average.

 

Chart 45: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 46: GBP valuation and Trade weighted index

Net % of FMS investors saying GBP overvalued

 

Net 8% of FMS investors think GBP is undervalued (vs. 4% a month ago).

Current valuation is 0.5 stdev below the long-term average.

 

Chart 46: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Investor Regional Equity Allocation

Chart 47: Net % AA Say they are overweight US Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight US equities

 

On regional equity allocation…

FMS investors are net 36% underweight US equities…most underweight since May'23.

In just 2 months, US equity allocation has been slashed by a record 53ppt.

Current allocation is 1.8 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 47: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 48: Net % AA Say they are overweight Eurozone Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight EU equities

 

Allocation to Eurozone equities dropped 16ppt MoM to net 22% overweight.

Current allocation is 0.3 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 48: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 49: Net % AA Say they are overweight EM Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight EM equities

 

FMS investors are net 16% overweight EM stocks…-4ppt MoM (smallest monthly decline of any region).

Current allocation is 0.1 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 49: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 50: Net % AA Say they are overweight Japanese Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight Japanese equities

 

FMS investors are net 7% underweight Japanese equities (vs net 1% a month ago).

Current allocation is 0.5 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 50: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 51: Net % AA Say they are overweight UK Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight UK equities

 

FMS investors are net 3% underweight (flipping from net 4% overweight).

Current allocation is 1.0 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 51: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

Investor Sector Allocation

Chart 52: Global Sector Sentiment

Net % overweight (% saying overweight - % saying underweight)

 

April saw FMS investors increasing allocation to utilities, healthcare, and staples, and reducing allocation to industrials, banks, and consumer discretionary.

FMS investors are the most (net) overweight healthcare, banks, and insurance, and the most (net) underweight energy, consumer discretionary, and materials.

Chart 52: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 53: Global Banks

Net % of FMS investors overweight banks

 

FMS investors are net 17% overweight banks (-14ppt MoM drop to 6-month low).

Current reading is 0.9 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 53: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 54: Global Technology

Net % of FMS investors overweight technology

 

FMS investors are net 17% underweight technology…lowest allocation since Nov'22.

Current reading is 2.2 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 54: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 55: Global Utilities

Net % of FMS investors overweight utilities

 

FMS investors are net 10% overweight utilities, up 10ppt to highest allocation since Dec'08.

Current reading is 2.8 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 55: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 56: Global Consumer Staples

Net % of FMS investors overweight consumer staples

 

FMS investors are net 12% overweight staples…most overweight since Sep'23.

Current reading is 1.1 stdev above its long-term average.

 

Chart 56: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 57: Global Industrials

Net % of FMS investors overweight industrials

 

FMS investors are net 16% underweight industrials, -24ppt to lowest allocation since Aug'11.

Current reading is 1.8 stdev below its long-term average.

 

Chart 57: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Chart 58: Global Healthcare

Net% of FMS investors overweight healthcare

 

FMS investors are net 26% overweight healthcare (up 6ppt MoM to 7-month high).

Allocation to healthcare has been consistently overweight since Jan'18.

Current reading is 0.4 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 58: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 59: Global Materials

Net% of FMS investors overweight materials

 

FMS investors are net 18% underweight materials (-10ppt MoM to 5-month low).

Current reading is 1.1 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 59: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 60: Global Energy

Net% of FMS investors overweight energy

 

FMS investors are net 28% underweight energy…lowest since Oct'20.

Current reading is 2.0 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 60: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 Global survey demographics data

Table 2: Position / Institution / Approach to Global Equity Strategy

Position / Institution / Approach to Global Equity Strategy

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Apr-25

Mar-25

Feb-25

Structure of the panel - by position

Chief Investment Officer

30

31

31

Asset Allocator / Strategist / Economist

56

55

62

Portfolio Manager

72

79

69

Other

6

6

6

 

 

 

Structure of the Panel - by expertise

Global Specialists Only

89

98

95

Regional Specialists with a Global View

75

73

73

Total # of Respondents to Global Questions

164

171

168

 

 

 

 Which of the Following Best Describes the Type of Money You are Running?

 

 

 

Institutional funds (e.g. pension funds / insurance companies)

51

56

48

Hedge funds / proprietary trading desks

18

18

21

Mutual funds / unit trusts / investment trusts

71

71

76

None of the above

24

26

23

 

 

 

 What Do You Estimate to be the Total Current Value of Assets Under Your Direct Control?

 

 

 

Up to $250mn

25

32

29

Around $500mn

18

19

20

Around $1bn

31

28

34

Around $2.5bn

18

21

16

Around $5bn

15

11

12

Around $7.5bn

8

7

8

Around $10bn or more

16

22

19

No funds under my direct control

33

31

30

Total (USD bn)

386

426

401

 

 

 

 What best describes your investment time horizon at this moment?

 

 

 

3 months or less

74

56

57

6 months

24

41

44

9 months

11

16

15

12 months or more

52

55

50

Weighted average

6.8

7.3

7.0

Don't know

3

3

2

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 Important Disclosures

 

FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicators of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst's assessment of both a stock's absolute total return potential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat or increase in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. An investment rating of 6 (No Rating) indicates that a stock is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. Analysts assign investment ratings considering, among other things, the 0-12 month total return expectation for a stock and the firm's guidelines for ratings dispersions (shown in the table below). The current price objective for a stock should be referenced to better understand the total return expectation at any given time. The price objective reflects the analyst's view of the potential price appreciation (depreciation).

Investment rating

Total return expectation (within 12-month period of date of initial rating)

Ratings dispersion guidelines for coverage clusterR1

Buy

≥ 10%

≤ 70%

Neutral

≥ 0%

≤ 30%

Underperform

N/A

≥ 20%

 R1Ratings dispersions may vary from time to time where BofA Global Research believes it better reflects the investment prospects of stocks in a Coverage Cluster.

INCOME RATINGS, indicators of potential cash dividends, are: 7 - same/higher (dividend considered to be secure), 8 - same/lower (dividend not considered to be secure) and 9 - pays no cash dividend. Coverage Cluster is comprised of stocks covered by a single analyst or two or more analysts sharing a common industry, sector, region or other classification(s). A stock's coverage cluster is included in the most recent BofA Global Research report referencing the stock. 

 

Due to the nature of strategic analysis, the issuers or securities recommended or discussed in this report are not continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers and/or securities.

BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s) responsible for this report) receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of Bank of America Corporation, including profits derived from investment banking. The analyst(s) responsible for this report may also receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of the Bank's sales and trading businesses relating to the class of securities or financial instruments for which such analyst is responsible.

 

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