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Key takeaways
- History says stock will see big double-digit returns in '25, and bonds to set direction of risk assets...
- ...lower yields = big stock gains (see 1997/98), higher yields = big reversal (see 1929/30, 1937/38, 1956/57)
- We say stocks & credit peak early '25; yield curve "bear steepening" to signal allocation shift to commodities.
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Scores on the Doors: crypto 75.6%, gold 29.1%, stocks 18.7%, HY bonds 7.6%, US$ 5.7%, cash 4.8%, commodities 4.3%, IG bonds 1.8%, oil -2.2%, govt bonds -3.4% YTD.
Tale of the Tape: NDX vs. SPX price relative holding above secular high in 2000 (Chart 3), keeping investors comfortably long US tech stocks & US dollar; watch NDX/SPX, as crack below 2000 high catalyst for rotation from "US exceptionalism" trades.
Living History I: SPX on course for +20% in 2 consecutive years…happened just 4 times past 150 years (1927/28, 1935/36, 1954/55, 1995/96 - Table 2); history lessons from returns in following 2 years…1. SPX in '25 will likely have another big double-digit move; 2. falling bond yields = secret sauce for SPX to avoid huge reversals seen in 1929/30, 1937/38, 1956/57, catalyze further big equity gains, as occurred in 1997/98.
 Living History II: US Treasuries on course for 3rd loss in 4 years in 2024…1st time since 1955-58 (Table 1); note Treasury returns were again negative in 1959 as US economy boomed/budget deficit rose, i.e. bond returns can fall in 4 out of 5 years.
The Biggest Picture: BofA Investment Clock says equity-bullish "recovery" phase of lower rates and higher EPS (2024) to be followed by commodity-bullish "boom" phase of higher EPS and higher rates; "bear steepening" of yield curve in '25 signals transition as bonds price-in "inflation boom" and price-out rate "cuts," signals bond yield levels that cap risk assets in early '25 (real rates >2.5%, long rates >5%, short rates >4.5%).
More on page 2…
 2024 Flows:  record inflows to US stocks ($448bn annualized - Chart 10), IG bonds ($425bn - Chart 9), EM stocks ($165bn), HY bonds ($54bn), crypto ($38bn - Chart 11), massive $1.1tn inflow to money market funds; in contrast, big outflows in '24 from US value ($46bn) & Europe stock funds ($58bn), unloved contrarian plays heading into '25.
 Weekly Flows: $14.4bn to equities, $9.1bn to bonds, $0.9bn to crypto, $0.6bn from gold, $1.3bn from cash.
Weekly Flows to Know:
-  Treasuries: $2.9bn outflow…past 2 weeks biggest outflow ($6.4bn - Chart 12) since Dec'23;
- EM debt: $3.0bn outflow…biggest weekly outflow since Mar'23 (Chart 13);
- Financials: $1.1bn inflow…past 4 weeks biggest inflow ($6.0bn - Chart 14) since Feb'22;
- Tech: $5.4bn inflow…biggest in 6 weeks;
- Healthcare: $1.1bn outflow…biggest since Dec'23 (Chart 15).
 BofA Private Clients: $3.8tn AUM…62.8% stocks, 19.2% bonds, 11.1% cash; small weekly inflow to stocks, as private clients selling bonds in past 4 weeks at fastest pace since Mar'20 Covid shock (Chart 16); in ETFs BofA GWIM buying MLP, munis, industrials, and selling utilities, energy, EM debt past 4 weeks.
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: falls to 5.4 from 5.9 driven by higher Nov FMS cash levels, EM debt outflows, and poor global stock index breadth (23 out of 45 global equity indices trading below 50 & 200dma); investors are bullish on America, but are not bullish on the World.
SPX 6666…US equity bull began March 2009 at 666…would almost be a surprise for melt-up not to continue coming weeks/months given: 1. Trump admin sees rising stocks/crypto as tool to boost "animal spirits" & few believe Trump will allow bear market; 2. "boomy" global macro data coming in short-term as companies front-run tariffs (Port of Long Beach imports at record high), hoard labor ahead of immigration controls (unemployment claims tumbling), 3. bond yields remain in Goldilocks range as bear catalysts of rising 3% inflation, $36tn debt, 7% of GDP deficit, offset by bull catalysts of central bank rate cuts in 2025 (BofA forecasting 124 cuts - Chart 5), peak geopolitical risk, optimism Trump knows political malpractice to allow 2nd wave of higher inflation in '25. Â
2024 in 4 Trades:
- ABP "Anything but Populism"…80% of world market cap, 60% of world GDP, 40% of global population went to the polls in '24; in anticipation policy makers eased fiscal, monetary, energy policies to maintain full employment and in hopes of maintaining political status quo; the "ABP" easing sent Bitcoin & gold prices to all-time highs, but failed politically as electorates angered by inflation & inequality punished incumbents (80% of incumbent parties lost), and voted for populists, culminating with big Trump victory in US election; we say expectation that Trump 2.0 = US inflationary boom means bid for crypto & gold to continue;
- ABB "Anything but Bonds"…inflation fell and central banks cut rates 153 times; shift from "easy fiscal-tight money" in '23 to "easy fiscal-easy money" in '24 caused asset prices to soar and the US economic growth to accelerate…there was no global recession, "soft landing" became the '24 macro narrative; bond yields were range-bound as lower inflation & rate cuts were offset by ongoing rise in US government debt ($36tn, rising $1tn in 100 days in '24) & deficits (7% of GDP), and investors had no excuse to abandon their 2020s "Anything but Bonds" stance, and rotate away from risk assets (stocks & credit); we are buyers of Treasuries above 5%...triggers asset losses/growth slowdown;
- AI "Artificial Intelligence": can't buy bonds, can't buy "leverage" (e.g. small cap, China, regional banks), can't buy "duration" (e.g. biotech); '24 liquidity poured into high quality assets e.g. IG bonds and global companies with strong monopolistic market positions, particularly those in US driving/benefiting from AI "arms race," conviction secular growth theme; S&P 500 trailing P/E now 26.5x (4th highest in past 125 years - Chart 6), US stocks at 75-year highs vs. rest-of-world, record US index concentration (top 10 stocks = 37% of market cap - Chart 7), market cap of the "Magnificent 7" stocks up $4tn in 2024 (Chart 8); US is secular AI winner, but we say "US exceptionalism" theme cyclically peaks, allocation to International troughs in Q1, as US financial conditions tighten, and Asia & Europe ease.
- ABC "Anywhere but China": investors in '24 remained resolutely negative on China, and reduced portfolio sensitivity to a China economy plagued by real estate deflation, weak consumption, and geopolitics; asset deflation drove China stocks to 51-year lows vs US, and China bonds to all-time highs vs Treasuries; but the ABC trade reversed in H2'24 as China policymakers began surprise aggressive easing… China stocks rallied big, big regional equity beneficiaries of "ABC" (Japan, Mexico, India) notably peaked in H2'24, and China real estate & macro data improved; we say China outperforms '25…China unloved but notable China tech (26% YTD) pacing US tech gains (34% YTD) in '24, after big underperformance since 2022.
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Asset Class Flows (Table 3)
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BofA private client flows & allocations
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The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns
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BofA Rules & Tools
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BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B)
Our BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is at 5.4 signal is Neutral.
Disclaimer: The indicators identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator, MVP Model, BofA Global Breadth Rule, BofA EM Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global FMS Macro Indicator, BofA Global FMS Cash Rule, Global Wave, Sell-Side Indicator, and Global Financial Stress Indicator are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark.
The analysis of the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator in this report is back-tested and does not represent the actual performance of any account or fund. Back-tested performance depicts the hypothetical back-tested performance of a particular strategy over the time period indicated. In future periods, market and economic conditions will differ and the same strategy will not necessarily produce the same results. No representation is being made that any actual portfolio is likely to have achieved returns similar to those shown herein. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between back-tested returns and the actual results realized in the actual management of a portfolio. Back-tested performance results are created by applying an investment strategy or methodology to historical data and attempts to give an indication as to how a strategy might have performed during a certain period in the past if the product had been in existence during such time. Back-tested results have inherent limitations including the fact that they are calculated with the full benefit of hindsight, which allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted to maximize the returns. Further, the results shown do not reflect actual trading or the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on a portfolio manager's decision-making under actual circumstances.  Back-tested returns do not reflect advisory fees, trading costs, or other fees or expenses.
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2024 Cross-Asset Winners & Losers
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Acronyms
FMS - Fund Manager Survey
ECI: Employment cost index
GWIM - Global Wealth and Investment Management
MMF - Money Market Fund
YCC - Yield Curve Control
QE - Quantitative Easing
QT - Quantitative Tightening
S&L - Savings & Loan
FCI - Financial conditions index
AUM - Assets Under Management
U-rate - unemployment rate
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