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Key takeaways
- Welcome back to headwinds: Seasonals, long-end yields, NFP, Fed liberty, tariff legality, semis blink, EMBI sprd (too) tight?
- SPX: 6500 target reached. Still say hedge longs 'til Dow Theory & momentum confirm bull mkt. Some risk of SMH top. SML > SPX?
- DXY still supported, but precious metal charts bullish. US 5s30 broke steeper, Gilt yield starting to. A chart for everyone.
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Abbreviations:
INDU - Dow Jones Industrial Average
SPX - S&P 500
SMH - VanEck Semi-conductor ETF
SML - S&P600 small cap
wk - Week
SMA - Simple Moving Average
bp - basis points
DXY - US dollar index
EM: Emerging Markets
EMFX - Emerging Market Forex
ODF29 - Brazil interbank deposit, 1 day Jan 2029.
RSI - Relative Strength Index
MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence
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Equities: Slippery September headwinds started on day 1
S&P500: Summer rally target of 6,500 was reached in August. Oscillator divergence and weak September seasonals still suggest hedging longs into rallies. If headwinds fade, SPX 6,625 possible. INDU: August breakout to new all-time highs is mild evidence of rotation and breadth. Unfortunately, momentum and Dow Transports failed to breakout. SMH: On watch for head and shoulders top. A break below $279 increases downside risks in September, which may be sharp and quick. SML vs SPX: A relative long-term downtrend is testing a support level including a 61.8% retracement and 2003 lows.
Yields: US 5Y & 30Y test key levels, Gilts breaking higher?
US 5Y yield: The August decline broke below tactical yield support, a medium-term yield support line and the 200wk SMA remain at about 3.69-3.65%. US 30Y yield: Stuck in a narrowing range of 4.82-5.01% with a breakout worth chasing coming due in Sept-Oct. US 5s30s: Steeper curves resumed in August and caused long term trend line resistance to break, 131bp & 148bp may be seen in 2025. Gilt 10Y Yield: September began with an upside breakout > 4.80% as upside risks are rising.
FX: Holding a countertrend bullish USD bias in Q3
DXY: A head and shoulders bottom pattern remains as DXY is still above supports at 97.11/97.00. Therefore, our countertrend and contrarian bullish bias in Q3 remains. Euro: A downward sloping channel remains while below 1.1745. GBPUSD: Bearish bias remains since the May-July top suggested downside to 1.3145 (reached), possibly 1.30.
Commodities: The shiny metals are shining
Gold: Tactical breakout favors upside to 3,500 (reached) & $3,618. A weekly close above $3,500 will confirm a medium-term bullish triangle breakout with upside targets of $3,735 and near $4,000. Silver: Initial upside targets of $37.47 and $40-40.80 were reached. A bullish trend bias remains with upside levels to note of $41.40, $43.07, $45.25, $47.40 and possibly a retest of the 2011 highs at $49.80. Platinum: A multi-year base and upside breakouts remain trend bullish, ideally spot remains > $1,260.
EM: EMBI too tight? USDBRL and ODF29 test key supports
EMBI Global Spread is very tight according to chart history. The 250s may be an area to consider hedging macro risks as a five-wave wedge pattern may form. USDBRL keeps testing and holding a big support level at 5.40. While it holds, there is upside risk such as a reversion to the 200d SMA at about 5.70. However, a breakdown can favor a head and shoulders top and decline to 5.07/5.00. ODF29 is testing a yield support area in the 13.25-13.00% area. This is a key retest of the neckline of a head and shoulders base pattern that previously implied medium-term upside.
Seasonality: Slippery September for equities and EMFX
See: Seasonality Advantage: Slippery September for equities & EMFX, 21 August 2025.
Equity Technical Advantage
 Equities: Slippery September headwinds started on day 1
- S&P500: Summer rally target of 6,500 was reached in August. Oscillator divergence and weak September seasonals still suggest hedging longs into rallies. If headwinds fade, SPX 6,625 possible.
- INDU: August breakout to new all-time highs is mild evidence of positive rotation and breadth. But momentum and Dow Transports failed to breakout to confirm it.
- SMH: On watch for head and shoulders top. A break below $279 would increase downside risks in September.
- SML vs SPX: A relative downtrend testing a long-term support level including a 61.8% retracement and 2003 lows.
 SPX
 Slippery September seasonals and oscillator divergences have favored hedges
YTD high 6,508. Summer rally target of 6,500 was reached. We see bearish divergences from RSI and MACD heading into a seasonally weak September. This has supported our late summer bias to hedge longs as bulls play defense into new highs. Additional SPX headwinds include the possibility of a head and shoulders top on SMH and lack of Dow Theory confirmation. We do not see an SPX top pattern yet so we cannot rule out the full head and shoulders target of 6,625 being reached at some point. Given how September began, we'd like to see a bullish signal in the daily chart to signal upside.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
August breakout to new all-time highs may signal rotation
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Dow Theory
INDU breakout lacks confirmation without transports breaking out
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VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)
On watch for a small head and shoulders top pattern as a September headwind
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S&P Small-cap 600 vs S&P 500
A relative downtrend testing a long term support level
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Rates Technical Advantage
 Yields: US 5Y & 30Y test key levels, Gilts breaking higher?
- US 5Y yield: The August decline broke tactical yield support, but medium-term yield support from a trend line and the 200wk SMA remains at about 3.69-3.65%.
- US 30Y yield: Stuck in a narrowing range of 4.82-5.01% with a breakout worth chasing and coming due in September-October.
- US 5s30s: Steeper curves resumed in August and caused long term trend line resistance that began in 2011 to break. 131bp & 148bp may be seen in 2025.
- Gilt 10Y Yield: September began with an upside breakout above 4.80% and if the week can sustain it, then upside risks for Gilt yield may be ahead.
US 5Y Yield
Yield tests 200wk SMA and trend line at 3.69-3.65% Ã Break or hold?
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US 30Y Yield
Still coiling tight between 4.80-5.01%, chase the breakout
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US 5s30s
5s30s breaks above trend line resistance to signal further steepening this fall
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UK 10Y Gilt Yield
Gilt yield started the week above triangle line, a weekly close > 4.80% breaks it
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FX Technical Advantage
 FX: Holding a countertrend bullish USD bias in Q3
- DXY: A head and shoulders bottom pattern remains as DXY is still above supports at 97.11/97.00. Therefore, our countertrend and contrarian bullish bias in Q3 remains.
- Euro: A downward sloping channel remains while below 1.1745.
- GBPUSD: Bearish bias remains since the May-July top suggested downside to 1.3145 (reached) and possibly 1.30.
DXY
Head and shoulders base remains while above 97.11/97.00
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EURUSD
Bearish channel remains while closing below 1.1745, range / upside if broken.
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GBPUSD
Head and shoulders top narrowly remains
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Commodity Technical Advantage
 Commodities: The shiny metals are shining
- Gold: Tactical breakout favors upside to 3,500 (reached) / $3,618. A weekly close above $3,500 will confirm a medium-term bullish triangle breakout with upside targets of $3,735 and near $4,000.
- Silver: Initial upside targets of $37.47 and $40-40.80 were reached. A bullish trend bias remains with upside levels to note of $41.40, $43.07, $45.25, $47.40 and possibly a retest of the 2011 highs at $49.80.
- Platinum: Big base and upside breakouts are bullish, ideally spot remains > $1,260
Gold
Bullish triangle breakout implies uptrend. A weekly close > $3,500 = Bullish.
Gold prices broke out of its narrowing range which implied upside to $3,500 (reached) and $3,618 (see daily chart in Technical Advantage: Hole-ding patterns 20 August 2025). Medium-term our wave count suggests this was wave 4 of (3) higher thus greater upside is possible such as $3,735 and near $4,000.
Silver
Initial targets reached, remain trend following bullish
Ending the week of June 6, 2025 we discussed our bull case for silver prices. We discussed initial upside targets of $37.47 and $40-40.80 and a big picture that was much more optimistic (Report reference: Technical Advantage: We're working on it 06 June 2025). Silver prices rallied into the end of August reaching these targets. The ten year long cup and handle base has implied silver prices can go significantly higher. A test of the all-time highs at $49.80 is within scope as positioning and momentum is not yet stretched.
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Platinum
Big base and upside breakouts are bullish, ideally spot remains > $1,260
The rally in platinum prices previously reached our target in the $1300s (Report reference: Technical Advantage: We're working on it 06 June 2025). The bigger picture still implies upside to, for example, $1,550, $1,621 and $1,740. Ideally price remains above the last low of $1,260 and we begin to see evidence of CTAs adding.
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Emerging Market Technical Advantage
 EM: EMBI too tight? USDBRL and ODF29 test key supports
- EMBI Global Spread is very tight according to its chart history. The 250s may be an area to consider hedging macro risks as a five-wave wedge pattern has formed.
- USDBRL keeps testing and holding a big support level at 5.40. While it holds, there is upside risk such as a reversion to the 200d SMA at about 5.70. However, a breakdown can favor a head and shoulders top and decline to 5.07/5.00.
- ODF29 is testing a yield support area in the 13.25-13.00% area. This is a key retest of the neckline of a head and shoulders base pattern that previously implied medium-term upside.
EMBI Global Spread
The 250s looks too tight and an area to consider hedging Sept-Oct risks
USDBRL
Strong trend line support at 5.40 remains after multiple tests
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ODF29
A long-term base implies medium-term upside risks
ODF29, a measure of Brazilian interest rates, previously formed a multi-year head and shoulders bottom pattern. Often after a breakout the neckline area is retested. That appears to be happening now with yield support in the 13.00-13.25% area currently holding. This is an interesting level to consider positioning for a medium-term move higher to levels such as 15.50% / 16.30% / 17.00% provided it remains above 12.15%.
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Macro Technical Advantage
 US Unemployment rate rangebound from 4.0-4.2%
The US U-rate on August 1 was 4.2% and was very closing to rounding up to 4.3%. The one-year revised range is 4.0-4.2%. Having turned up from a base in late 2023, the rise remains the slowest and smallest in chart history. On Friday, we'll find out if the rate breaks out higher from the range to favor curve steepening and higher precious metals.
Seasonality Advantage
 Seasonality: Slippery September for equities and EMFX
- Ten equity indices w/neg avg Sept returns, declines backloaded, DAX led. Brightside: SPX new Aug high reduced September drawdown risk.
- BBDXY up 65% of time by 0.58% with help from USDMXN up 74% of time in week 3-4 by 1.10%. USD supported vs JPY, BRL, COP, ZAR.Â
- BCOM Energy up 63% of time by 1.63%. Oil and gold strength backloaded, too. Rates spotty, maybe a modest month-end UST bid.
For more on macro market seasonality, please see: Seasonality Advantage: Slippery September for equities and EMFX 21 August 2025 |
SPX in September
Since 1928 in September, SPX average trend has been down (Exhibit 1). Median trend was more durable but moved lower into month end as the latter half of September has been weaker than the first half (Exhibit 2). A new all-time high in August does not bode well for September. But on the bright-side, drawdown risk decreased from as much as -29.94% to -8.54%. And in Y1 of the USPC after a new all-time high in August, down to -4.89%.
DXY in September
Since 2000, the average trend was close to neutral in September while over last ten years it rallied in the latter half of the month (Exhibit 3). The median trends tended to move sideways ending higher (Exhibit 4).
US10Y yield in September
Since 1963, the average and median trend in US 10Y yield in September was flat while over last 10 years both tended to be up by about 13-14 bps. (Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6).
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Gold in September
Since 1974, average and median trends were up in September (Exhibit 7, Exhibit 8). However, over the last ten years the average and median trend was slightly down.
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Chart Alpha
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Potential Risk at Expiry & Options Limited Duration Risk
Unlike owning or shorting a stock, employing any listed options strategy is by definition governed by a finite duration. The most severe risks associated with general options trading are total loss of capital invested and delivery/assignment risk... all of which can occur in a short period.
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