Technical Advantage

Back to the charts

Authored By
Analyst Name Paul Ciana, CMT
Analyst Email paul.ciana@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Technical Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 743 7014
Report Details
Market Analysis 03 September 2025 Technical Strategy Global FICC and Equity

Technical Advantage

Back to the charts

Authored By
Analyst Name Paul Ciana, CMT
Analyst Email paul.ciana@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Technical Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 743 7014
Report Details
Market Analysis 03 September 2025 Technical Strategy Global FICC and Equity
Glossary
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Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

 

 

Key takeaways
  • Welcome back to headwinds: Seasonals, long-end yields, NFP, Fed liberty, tariff legality, semis blink, EMBI sprd (too) tight?
  • SPX: 6500 target reached. Still say hedge longs 'til Dow Theory & momentum confirm bull mkt. Some risk of SMH top. SML > SPX?
  • DXY still supported, but precious metal charts bullish. US 5s30 broke steeper, Gilt yield starting to. A chart for everyone.

Technical Advantage

 

Abbreviations:
INDU - Dow Jones Industrial Average
SPX - S&P 500
SMH - VanEck Semi-conductor ETF
SML - S&P600 small cap
wk - Week
SMA - Simple Moving Average
bp - basis points
DXY - US dollar index
EM: Emerging Markets
EMFX - Emerging Market Forex
ODF29 - Brazil interbank deposit, 1 day Jan 2029.
RSI - Relative Strength Index
MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence

 

 

Technical Advantage

Equities: Slippery September headwinds started on day 1

S&P500: Summer rally target of 6,500 was reached in August. Oscillator divergence and weak September seasonals still suggest hedging longs into rallies. If headwinds fade, SPX 6,625 possible. INDU: August breakout to new all-time highs is mild evidence of rotation and breadth. Unfortunately, momentum and Dow Transports failed to breakout. SMH: On watch for head and shoulders top. A break below $279 increases downside risks in September, which may be sharp and quick. SML vs SPX: A relative long-term downtrend is testing a support level including a 61.8% retracement and 2003 lows.

Yields: US 5Y & 30Y test key levels, Gilts breaking higher?

US 5Y yield: The August decline broke below tactical yield support, a medium-term yield support line and the 200wk SMA remain at about 3.69-3.65%. US 30Y yield: Stuck in a narrowing range of 4.82-5.01% with a breakout worth chasing coming due in Sept-Oct. US 5s30s: Steeper curves resumed in August and caused long term trend line resistance to break, 131bp & 148bp may be seen in 2025. Gilt 10Y Yield: September began with an upside breakout > 4.80% as upside risks are rising.

FX: Holding a countertrend bullish USD bias in Q3

DXY: A head and shoulders bottom pattern remains as DXY is still above supports at 97.11/97.00. Therefore, our countertrend and contrarian bullish bias in Q3 remains. Euro: A downward sloping channel remains while below 1.1745. GBPUSD: Bearish bias remains since the May-July top suggested downside to 1.3145 (reached), possibly 1.30.

Commodities: The shiny metals are shining

Gold: Tactical breakout favors upside to 3,500 (reached) & $3,618. A weekly close above $3,500 will confirm a medium-term bullish triangle breakout with upside targets of $3,735 and near $4,000. Silver: Initial upside targets of $37.47 and $40-40.80 were reached. A bullish trend bias remains with upside levels to note of $41.40, $43.07, $45.25, $47.40 and possibly a retest of the 2011 highs at $49.80. Platinum: A multi-year base and upside breakouts remain trend bullish, ideally spot remains > $1,260.

EM: EMBI too tight? USDBRL and ODF29 test key supports

EMBI Global Spread is very tight according to chart history. The 250s may be an area to consider hedging macro risks as a five-wave wedge pattern may form. USDBRL keeps testing and holding a big support level at 5.40. While it holds, there is upside risk such as a reversion to the 200d SMA at about 5.70. However, a breakdown can favor a head and shoulders top and decline to 5.07/5.00. ODF29 is testing a yield support area in the 13.25-13.00% area. This is a key retest of the neckline of a head and shoulders base pattern that previously implied medium-term upside.

Seasonality: Slippery September for equities and EMFX

See: Seasonality Advantage: Slippery September for equities & EMFX, 21 August 2025.

 

Technical Advantage

Equity Technical Advantage

 Equities: Slippery September headwinds started on day 1

  • S&P500: Summer rally target of 6,500 was reached in August. Oscillator divergence and weak September seasonals still suggest hedging longs into rallies. If headwinds fade, SPX 6,625 possible.
  • INDU: August breakout to new all-time highs is mild evidence of positive rotation and breadth. But momentum and Dow Transports failed to breakout to confirm it.
  • SMH: On watch for head and shoulders top. A break below $279 would increase downside risks in September.
  • SML vs SPX: A relative downtrend testing a long-term support level including a 61.8% retracement and 2003 lows.

 SPX

 Slippery September seasonals and oscillator divergences have favored hedges

YTD high 6,508. Summer rally target of 6,500 was reached. We see bearish divergences from RSI and MACD heading into a seasonally weak September. This has supported our late summer bias to hedge longs as bulls play defense into new highs. Additional SPX headwinds include the possibility of a head and shoulders top on SMH and lack of Dow Theory confirmation. We do not see an SPX top pattern yet so we cannot rule out the full head and shoulders target of 6,625 being reached at some point. Given how September began, we'd like to see a bullish signal in the daily chart to signal upside.

Chart 1: S&P 500 - Our summer rally target of 6500 was reached. Oscillator divergence and weak seasonals suggest hedging longs into rallies.

Chart includes candles, 50d SMA, 200d SMA, 200wk SMA, RSI and MACD

<_bbchartsh_MTYxQUIwRTAzNEY0NEY2M0>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Dow Jones Industrial Average

August breakout to new all-time highs may signal rotation

Chart 2: The Dow Jones industrial Average broke out to new all-time highs in August. This can be considered a positive sign for sector rotation and breadth, however the momentum of the move as measured by RSI did not move above 70 to confirm it.

Candle chart, 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_RDAxODAyRUNEN0Q2NEI5Qk>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

Dow Theory

INDU breakout lacks confirmation without transports breaking out

Chart 3: While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU in top panel) broke out to new all-time highs in late August, the Transportation average has not broken above anything relevant to confirm the breakout.

Candle chart, 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_MzM5N0ZCQkRFRjYwNDE3Qk>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)

On watch for a small head and shoulders top pattern as a September headwind

  Chart 4:  The SMH has been trading sideways in July-August and the bearish gap down to start September further formed the right shoulder of a possible head and shoulders top pattern. Such a top is complimented by the bearishly diverging RSI and MACD oscillators as well as a TD Sequential sell signal near the high (red 13). If SMH breaks below the neckline at $279 then the top will be confirmed and downside to 265 / 252 would be possible.

Candle chart, 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_M0Q3NDlBRkUyRTFFNDQ0Qk>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

S&P Small-cap 600 vs S&P 500

A relative downtrend testing a long term support level

Chart 5: The ratio of the SML vs SPX has declined to the test support at the 2003 low and completed a 61.8% retracement of the 1999-2018 uptrend. While this technically remains a downtrend, this is an interesting juncture of levels with positive MACD divergence to see if the ratio can form a bottom.

Candle chart, 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_MEMxQzBBMkM5QzNENDYxRE>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Rates Technical Advantage

 Yields: US 5Y & 30Y test key levels, Gilts breaking higher?

  • US 5Y yield: The August decline broke tactical yield support, but medium-term yield support from a trend line and the 200wk SMA remains at about 3.69-3.65%.
  • US 30Y yield: Stuck in a narrowing range of 4.82-5.01% with a breakout worth chasing and coming due in September-October.
  • US 5s30s: Steeper curves resumed in August and caused long term trend line resistance that began in 2011 to break. 131bp & 148bp may be seen in 2025.
  • Gilt 10Y Yield: September began with an upside breakout above 4.80% and if the week can sustain it, then upside risks for Gilt yield may be ahead.

US 5Y Yield

Yield tests 200wk SMA and trend line at 3.69-3.65% à Break or hold?

Chart 6: US 5Y yield declined in August breaking below a short-term trend line (dashed green) and declined to test another line and 200wk SMA at about 3.69-3.65%. A break below this should usher in a decline to 3.38% / 3.16%, or wave (C) down in yield. However a reversal higher from here could lead to 4.05% / 4.35% and within the longer-term triangle pattern (black converging lines).

Candle chart, 50-wk SMA, 200-wk SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_N0FGMTJCQjAxRkRENDA3Qj>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

US 30Y Yield

Still coiling tight between 4.80-5.01%, chase the breakout

Chart 7: US 30Y yield continues to trade in a narrowing range currently at 4.80-5.01%. Our bias is to chase a breakout in September-October for a new trend to follow. If higher then to 5.40% / 5.65% and if lower then to 4.40 / 4.25%.

Candle chart, 50-wk SMA, 100-wk SMA, 200-wk SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_RTRGNjA2NEU1NUUwNEVDOE>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

US 5s30s

5s30s breaks above trend line resistance to signal further steepening this fall

Chart 8: US 5s30s steepened above trend line resistance. This signals a resumption of wave III steeper to 131bps and possibly 148bps.

Candle chart, 50-wk SMA, 100-wk SMA, 200-wk SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_NzEzMTBEOTBCM0RBNEQ0Nj>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

UK 10Y Gilt Yield

Gilt yield started the week above triangle line, a weekly close > 4.80% breaks it

Chart 9: UK 10Y Gilt Yield has been consolidating into a narrowing range. The market began September breaking higher above the top triangle line to imply upside risks are increasing. A weekly close above 4.80% would help favor that and upside to 5.15% / 5.27% while above 4.65%.

Candle chart, 50-wk SMA, 100-wk SMA, 200-wk SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_MDU4OTc3MkU0OTZGNENDOE>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

FX Technical Advantage

 FX: Holding a countertrend bullish USD bias in Q3

  • DXY: A head and shoulders bottom pattern remains as DXY is still above supports at 97.11/97.00. Therefore, our countertrend and contrarian bullish bias in Q3 remains.
  • Euro: A downward sloping channel remains while below 1.1745.
  • GBPUSD: Bearish bias remains since the May-July top suggested downside to 1.3145 (reached) and possibly 1.30.

DXY

Head and shoulders base remains while above 97.11/97.00

Chart 10: The US dollar index (DXY) has maintained a head and shoulders bottom pattern complimented by a TD Sequential "13" buy signal at the lows, diverging oscillators, and a breakout higher in RSI. Upside risks remains while the DXY is above the right shoulder slows of 97.11 / 97.00.

Candle chart, 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_MjY3RDhDMjIzQTdDNDNCQU>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

EURUSD

Bearish channel remains while closing below 1.1745, range / upside if broken.

Chart 11: Since reaching 1.1829 on July 1, euro has made a series of lower highs and lower lows and looks at risk of another leg lower while the downward channel remains. Tactically bearish while closes are below 1.1745 and if above then a range may persist and upside risk increases to 1.1881 and 1.1980.

Candle chart, 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_Q0I1QTg4RjREODYwNDc1NU>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

GBPUSD

Head and shoulders top narrowly remains

Chart 12: GBPUSD formed a head and shoulders top in May-July suggesting downside to 1.3145 (reached) and 1.30 while closing below the right shoulder high of 1.3589. This setup remains and the start of September is starting a move lower.

Candle chart, 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_NkZFNDlERjI2NzY2NDE4M0>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Commodity Technical Advantage

 Commodities: The shiny metals are shining

  • Gold: Tactical breakout favors upside to 3,500 (reached) / $3,618. A weekly close above $3,500 will confirm a medium-term bullish triangle breakout with upside targets of $3,735 and near $4,000.
  • Silver: Initial upside targets of $37.47 and $40-40.80 were reached. A bullish trend bias remains with upside levels to note of $41.40, $43.07, $45.25, $47.40 and possibly a retest of the 2011 highs at $49.80.
  • Platinum: Big base and upside breakouts are bullish, ideally spot remains > $1,260

Gold

Bullish triangle breakout implies uptrend. A weekly close > $3,500 = Bullish.

Gold prices broke out of its narrowing range which implied upside to $3,500 (reached) and $3,618 (see daily chart in Technical Advantage: Hole-ding patterns 20 August 2025). Medium-term our wave count suggests this was wave 4 of (3) higher thus greater upside is possible such as $3,735 and near $4,000.

Chart 13: Gold: Tactical breakout favors upside to 3,500 (reached) / $3,618. However a weekly close above $3,500 will confirm a medium-term bullish triangle breakout with upside targets of $3,735 and near $4,000.

Candle chart, 50-wk SMA, 200-wk SMA, RSI, MACD, Net non-commercial positions / open interest

<_bbchartsh_RTk3MUY5MkQwRDBBNDVFMz>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Silver

Initial targets reached, remain trend following bullish

Ending the week of June 6, 2025 we discussed our bull case for silver prices. We discussed initial upside targets of $37.47 and $40-40.80 and a big picture that was much more optimistic (Report reference: Technical Advantage: We're working on it 06 June 2025). Silver prices rallied into the end of August reaching these targets. The ten year long cup and handle base has implied silver prices can go significantly higher. A test of the all-time highs at $49.80 is within scope as positioning and momentum is not yet stretched.

Chart 14: Silver weekly - Initial upside targets $37.47 and $40-40.80 reached. Trend following bullish bias remains with upside levels to note of $43.07, $45.25, $47.40 and possibly a retest of the 2011 highs at $49.80.

Candle chart, 50-wk SMA, 200-wk SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_NjJDNjEzNDlEMTYxNEQxNT>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Platinum

Big base and upside breakouts are bullish, ideally spot remains > $1,260

The rally in platinum prices previously reached our target in the $1300s (Report reference: Technical Advantage: We're working on it 06 June 2025). The bigger picture still implies upside to, for example, $1,550, $1,621 and $1,740. Ideally price remains above the last low of $1,260 and we begin to see evidence of CTAs adding.

Chart 15: Spot platinum prices showing a long-term bottom, upside breakouts, strong momentum and room for positioning to get long

Candle chart, 50-wk SMA, 200-wk SMA, Net non-commercial positions / open interest, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_RkJFNTkyQ0IwNjMwNDRFME>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Emerging Market Technical Advantage

 EM: EMBI too tight? USDBRL and ODF29 test key supports

  • EMBI Global Spread is very tight according to its chart history. The 250s may be an area to consider hedging macro risks as a five-wave wedge pattern has formed.
  • USDBRL keeps testing and holding a big support level at 5.40. While it holds, there is upside risk such as a reversion to the 200d SMA at about 5.70. However, a breakdown can favor a head and shoulders top and decline to 5.07/5.00.
  • ODF29 is testing a yield support area in the 13.25-13.00% area. This is a key retest of the neckline of a head and shoulders base pattern that previously implied medium-term upside.

EMBI Global Spread

The 250s looks too tight and an area to consider hedging Sept-Oct risks

Chart 16: The J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Spread has tightened to its tightest levels since 2013-2010 by briefly entering the 250s. To us this looks like an area to consider hedging macro risks. It looks like a dive wave wedge pattern has formed which tends to precede upside.

Candle chart, 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_QTg0RkUwNzVBNDczNDAzME>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

USDBRL

Strong trend line support at 5.40 remains after multiple tests

Chart 17: USDBRL is testing trend line support at about 5.40. We're watching to see if a base pattern forms to resume the uptrend over the last couple of years initially to 5.70, or if price decisively moves below this level to favor a head and shoulders top. After two attempts to break lower failed, we're becoming concerned about a mean reversion to the 200d SMA. US labor market data this Friday may be the deciding factor.

Candle chart, 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_RkNENEFGQkY1QzYxNDVDQU>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

ODF29

A long-term base implies medium-term upside risks

ODF29, a measure of Brazilian interest rates, previously formed a multi-year head and shoulders bottom pattern. Often after a breakout the neckline area is retested. That appears to be happening now with yield support in the 13.00-13.25% area currently holding. This is an interesting level to consider positioning for a medium-term move higher to levels such as 15.50% / 16.30% / 17.00% provided it remains above 12.15%.

Chart 18: ODF29 weekly chart depicts a large head and shoulders base and yield is retesting the neckline as support in the 13.00-13.25% area. This is an interesting level to debate paying provided it remains above 12.15% for a move higher to 15.50% / 16.30% / 17.00%.

Candle chart, 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, 200-day SMA, RSI, MACD

<_bbchartsh_REE5M0VCMkFDQzE2NDdDNj>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

Macro Technical Advantage

 US Unemployment rate rangebound from 4.0-4.2%

The US U-rate on August 1 was 4.2% and was very closing to rounding up to 4.3%. The one-year revised range is 4.0-4.2%. Having turned up from a base in late 2023, the rise remains the slowest and smallest in chart history. On Friday, we'll find out if the rate breaks out higher from the range to favor curve steepening and higher precious metals.

Exhibit 1: US Unemployment rate - long term history with tops and bottoms

The gradual rise in the USUR this cycle has been the slowest we've seen after a bottom formed.

Exhibit 1: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

<_bbchartsh_M0ZGMjE4Q0I0NTRENDNBOD>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

Exhibit 1: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Exhibit 2: US Unemployment rate - one year range is 4.0-4.2% (revised)

The uptrend of 2H23-2024 has been moving sideways between 4.0-4.2%.

<_bbchartsh_REUwQTM0MjU5QjYwNDY2RU>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Seasonality Advantage

 Seasonality: Slippery September for equities and EMFX

  • Ten equity indices w/neg avg Sept returns, declines backloaded, DAX led. Brightside: SPX new Aug high reduced September drawdown risk.
  • BBDXY up 65% of time by 0.58% with help from USDMXN up 74% of time in week 3-4 by 1.10%. USD supported vs JPY, BRL, COP, ZAR. 
  • BCOM Energy up 63% of time by 1.63%. Oil and gold strength backloaded, too. Rates spotty, maybe a modest month-end UST bid.

For more on macro market seasonality, please see: Seasonality Advantage: Slippery September for equities and EMFX 21 August 2025

SPX in September

Since 1928 in September, SPX average trend has been down (Exhibit 1). Median trend was more durable but moved lower into month end as the latter half of September has been weaker than the first half (Exhibit 2). A new all-time high in August does not bode well for September. But on the bright-side, drawdown risk decreased from as much as -29.94% to -8.54%. And in Y1 of the USPC after a new all-time high in August, down to -4.89%.

  Exhibit 1:  SPX average trend in September has been down

Average trend from Aug 31 to Sep 30 since 1928 and 2015

Exhibit 1: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

Note: We calculate up ratios from the start of the period to the end of each day ahead. SPX Index up ratio data (1928 to 2024)

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

  Exhibit 2:  SPX median trend in Sept initially up but ends near flat.

Median trend from Aug 31 to Sep 30 since 1928 and 2015

Exhibit 2: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

Note: We calculate up ratios from the start of the period to the end of each day ahead. SPX Index up ratio data (1928 to 2024)

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

  Exhibit 4:  A new all-time high for S&P 500 in August does not bode well for September, but on the bright side drawdown risk decreased to a Min of -8.54%.

We compare the average trend in September to the average trend in year 1 of the USPC to average trends after a new all-time high in August to year 1 of the USPC + new all-time high in August.

 

 All periods

Presidential cycle year 1

After a new all-time high in August

Presidential cycle year 1 and new all-time high in August

Average

-1.17%

-1.62%

-0.81%

-0.38%

Median

-0.49%

-0.72%

-0.65%

-0.83%

% time up

44.33%

41.67%

39.13%

37.50%

Min

-29.94%

-14.21%

-8.54%

-4.89%

Max

14.40%

5.32%

5.32%

5.32%

# Observations

97

24

23

8

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

DXY in September

Since 2000, the average trend was close to neutral in September while over last ten years it rallied in the latter half of the month (Exhibit 3). The median trends tended to move sideways ending higher (Exhibit 4).

  Exhibit 3:  DXY average trend in September is flat to up.

Average trend from Aug 31 to Sep 30 since 2000 and 2015

Exhibit 3: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

Note: We calculate up ratios from the start of the period to the end of each day ahead.

DXY Index up ratio data (2000 to 2024)

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

  Exhibit 4:  DXY median trend in September is sideways to up.

Median three-month trend from Aug 31 to Sep 30 since 2000 and 2015

Exhibit 4: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

Note: We calculate up ratios from the start of the period to the end of each day ahead.

DXY Index up ratio data (2000 to 2024)

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

US10Y yield in September

Since 1963, the average and median trend in US 10Y yield in September was flat while over last 10 years both tended to be up by about 13-14 bps. (Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6).

  Exhibit 5:  US 10Y Yield average trend flat in September but rose over the last ten years.

Average trend from Aug 31 to Sep 30 since 1963 and 2015

Exhibit 5: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

Note: We calculate up ratios from the start of the period to the end of each day ahead.

USGG10YR Index up ratio data (1963 to 2024)

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

  Exhibit 6:  10Y Yield median trend flat in September but it rose over the last ten years.

Average trend from Aug 31 to Sep 30 since 1963 and 2015

Exhibit 6: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

Note: We calculate up ratios from the start of the period to the end of each day ahead.

USGG10YR Index up ratio data (1963 to 2024)

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Gold in September

Since 1974, average and median trends were up in September (Exhibit 7, Exhibit 8). However, over the last ten years the average and median trend was slightly down.

  Exhibit 7:  Gold long term average trend up in September, but ten year average trend flat to down.

Average three-month trend from Aug 31 to Sep 30 since 1974 and 2015

Exhibit 7: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

Note: We calculate up ratios from the start of the period to the end of each day ahead.

XAU Curncy up ratio data (1974 to 2024)

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

  Exhibit 8:  Gold median trend up in September, but ten year median trend flat.

Median three-month trend from Aug 31 to Sep 30 since 1974 and 2015

Exhibit 8: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

Note: We calculate up ratios from the start of the period to the end of each day ahead.

XAU Curncy up ratio data (1974 to 2024)

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Chart Alpha

Exhibit 9: Open trades

Open technical trades and cross strategy alpha trades including technicals

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 Report

  Trade

Entry / revise date

Entry Level

Spot target 1

Spot target 2

Spot target 3

Spot stop

Rationale / time horizon

Risks

FX Alpha

Buy USDJPY 3m call spread

7/14/2025

0.6426% USD (strikes
150/155, forwards ref

145.86, vol refs 9.94 and

9.75)

150

152

155

-

Bullish triangle breakout, bullish cloud cross, bullish USD technical bias in Q3

Renewed USD weakness on US data
surprise or disorderly US policy.

LATAM Viewpoint

Buy USD/MXN

7/10/2025

18.52

19

19.35

19.9

18.00

Five wave wedge bottom pattern, strong support in the 18.18-18.50 area, bullish technical signals

Hawkish monetary policy stance, and
a global risk-on environment that

weakens the US dollar.

 Note: Bid/offer spreads accounted for in initiation and closing levels. Does not reflect tax withholdings or any investment advisory fees. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. A complete performance record is available on request. Inception date - 10/16/2015. As of 2024, trade entry levels are typically based on the chart time stamp. For additional discussion on baseline views, valuation and risks to open trades, please see reports.

    Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

Exhibit 10: Closed trades

Approximately two years of closed technical and/or collaborative cross strategy trades in the alpha, technical advantage and year ahead reports

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

              Report

Trade description

Entry date

Entry level

Spot target 1

Spot target 2

Spot target 3

Stop

Revise / close date

Level closed

Equity Technical Advantage

Buy XLE put $75 strike expiring July 18th 2025

5/2/2025

$1.95 spot ref $82.05, IVM 32.40

80

77.5

75

88

8/2/2025

0

FX Alpha

Buy USDJPY

6/20/2025

144.25

148

150

152

142

7/15/2025

148.88

Rates Technical Advantage

Sell US 2Y Breakeven Inflation Swap (USSWIT2)

4/14/2025

2.78%

2.70%

2.60%

2.50%

3.02%

6/12/2025

2.70%

EM Alpha

Long BRL/COP

11/21/2024

751.00

825

861

898

700

4/23/2025

755

FX Alpha

Buy EURUSD

4/10/2025

1.1031

1.115

1.12766

1.1495

1.0750

4/21/2025

1.1495

 FX Alpha

Buy USDCHF 3mth 0.92/0.9450 call spread

1/14/2024

0.6466% USD

0.924

0.945

-

-

4/13/2025

0

Chart Alpha

Close US 5s30s Steepener

4/3/2025

70

60 (reached)

85 (reached)

100

55 (raised)

4/9/2025

88

FX Alpha

Buy 6m EUR/USD 1.08/1.13 1x2 ratio c/s

3/5/2025

1.01% EUR (spot ref 1.0696)

1.085

1.1

1.12

-

4/8/2025

1.15% EUR

Technical Advantage

US 5s30s Steepener (Raise stop again)

3/27/2025

62

60 (reached)

85

100

55

4/3/2025

70

Chart Alpha

US 5s30s Steepener (Raise stop again)

3/6/2025

52

60 (reached)

85

100

45

3/27/2025

62

Rates Technical Advantage

US 5s30s Steepener (Raise stop again)

1/21/2025

45

60

85

100

30

3/6/2025

52

FX Technical Advantage

Buy GBPUSD 3m call spread 1x1.5 1.26/1.2850

2/5/2025

0.4135% GBP (Spot ref: 1.2480, vol ref: 7.80%/7.50%).

1.26

1.275

1.28

-

2/21/2025

0.6030% (Spot ref: 1.2660, vol ref: 7.1% / 6.72%).

Global Macro Year Ahead

Short EURJPY via long 6m ERKO EURJPY put, ATMF strike: 158.75, down/out European barrier: 150

11/24/2024

0.7425% EUR, spot ref: 160.65. expiry May 23 2025.

158.75

150

 

-

2/7/2025

0.99% EUR with spot ref: 157.51

Global Macro Year Ahead

US 5s30s Steepener (Raise stop)

11/24/2024

30

60

85

100

30

1/21/2025

45

EM Alpha

Long BRL / MXN

9/24/2024

3.51

3.67

3.8

3.95

3.4

11/14/2024

3.55

Chart Alpha

Buy USZ4

10/31/2024

117-29

120

120-25

-

116-20

11/1/2024

116-20

FX Technical Advantage

Short gold vs silver

9/26/2024

83.50

80

78.5

75

87.5

10/29/2024

80.52

FX Technical Advantage

Short USDKRW

9/26/2024

1335

1300

1270

1225

1355

10/14/2024

1355

FX Technical Advantage

Short GBPUSD

10/2/2024

1.362

1.31

-

-

1.34

10/4/2024

1.308

FX Technical Advantage

Short GBPUSD (lower stop)

9/26/2024

1.3407

1.3250 (reached)

1.31

-

1.3525 to 1.3400

10/2/2024

1.326

FX Technical Advantage

Short NZDUSD

8/22/2024

0.6140

0.6092

0.605

0.5975

0.623

8/23/2024

0.6230

FX Alpha

Buy EURSEK 3m 11.40/11.60 CS

6/7/2024

0.62% EUR, vol ref 5.7%; exp 9 Sep 2024, spot ref 11.3891

45544

11.4

11.6

-

7/12/2024

0.87% EUR

FX Alpha

Buy a 25D 3m GBP/USD call

3/8/2024

spot ref: 1.28. Cost = 0.51% GBP

1.3

1.314

-

-

6/8/2024

0

EM Alpha

Short USDZAR

11/15/2023

18.15

17.6

17.25

-

18.55

5/13/2024

18.06 (Spot 18.36 less 1.6% carry)

Rates Alpha

Buy 10y bunds vs USTs

2/13/2024

182bps

200bps (reached)

225bps

-

Raise to 188

5/9/2024

200bps

FX Alpha

Buy 3m EUR/JPY put spread

1/26/2024

0.6663% EUR (strikes 158.00, 155.00, spot ref 160.31, vol refs 8.709, 8.965

158

155

-

-

4/25/2024

0

Technical Advantage

Buy BRL/CLP (raise stop to 192)

2/28/2024

190.75

200 (reached)

215

-

-

3/13/2024

192

Technical Advantage

Buy BRL/CLP (raise stop to 192)

2/2/2024

190.75

200 (reached)

215

-

190

2/28/2024

196.65

Technical Advantage

Buy USDSEK

2/2/2024

10.49

-

10.65

10.9

-

2/27/2024

10.30

Global Macro Year Ahead

US 5s30s steepener

1/23/2024

15

35

55

80

15

2/2/2024

24.00

Global Macro Year Ahead

US 5s30s steepener, raise stop to 15

11/19/2023

15

35 (reached)

55

80

0

1/23/2024

32.00

2024 FICC Technical Advantage

Buy USDKRW +1m NDF

12/1/2023

1293

1315

1327

1340

1270

1/3/2024

1308

2024 FICC Technical Advantage

Short MXN/CLP

12/1/2023

49.85

48.25

47.5

46.1

52.2

12/22/2023

52.20

Global Macro Year Ahead

Short GBPAUD via 3m 1.90-1.86 GBP/AUD put spread

11/19/2023

s/r 1.9192

1.86

1.84

-

-

1/3/2024

1.2315% GBP (s/r 1.8762, vol ref 7.354 / 6.921)

Global Macro Year Ahead

Sell EUR/NOK via 6m risk reversal

11/19/2023

s/r 11.8623 vol refs: 8.929 and 9.108).

11.35

11.22

11.1

-

1/3/2024

Received 0.7307% EUR

EM Alpha

Buy EURZAR

10/2/2023

20.15

20.75

-

-

19.6

11/1/2023

19.60

FX Alpha

Buy CADMXN

10/23/2023

13.3338

14

-

-

13

10/31/2023

13.00

FX Alpha

Buy EURSEK 3m zero-cost collar spot ref 11.5456

10/13/2023

3m 11.8380 call for 0.5676% EUR, vol 7.394%; sell 3m 11.3143, vol 6.701%, zero-cost

11.838

-

-

-

10/30/2023

1.12%

FX Alpha

Buy GBPAUD 6m put seagull

9/8/2023

0.3827% GBP (long 6m put spread, 1.94 / 1.90

1.94

1.9

-

2.05

9/22/2023

1.2341% GBP

FX Technical Advantage

Short USDCAD

8/29/2023

1.3570

1.3497

1.346

1.335

1.3725

9/13/2023

1.3550

                   Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Options Risk Statement

Potential Risk at Expiry & Options Limited Duration Risk

Unlike owning or shorting a stock, employing any listed options strategy is by definition governed by a finite duration. The most severe risks associated with general options trading are total loss of capital invested and delivery/assignment risk... all of which can occur in a short period.

Investor suitability

The use of standardized options and other related derivatives instruments are considered unsuitable for many investors. Investors considering such strategies are encouraged to become familiar with the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" (an OCC authored white paper on options risks). U.S. investors should consult with a FINRA Registered Options Principal.

For detailed information regarding risks involved with investing in listed options: http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp

 

 

I, Paul Ciana, CMT, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report.

 

 

 Important Disclosures

 

FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicators of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst's assessment of both a stock's absolute total return potential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat or increase in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. An investment rating of 6 (No Rating) indicates that a stock is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. Analysts assign investment ratings considering, among other things, the 0-12 month total return expectation for a stock and the firm's guidelines for ratings dispersions (shown in the table below). The current price objective for a stock should be referenced to better understand the total return expectation at any given time. The price objective reflects the analyst's view of the potential price appreciation (depreciation).

Investment rating

Total return expectation (within 12-month period of date of initial rating)

Ratings dispersion guidelines for coverage clusterR1

Buy

≥ 10%

≤ 70%

Neutral

≥ 0%

≤ 30%

Underperform

N/A

≥ 20%

 R1Ratings dispersions may vary from time to time where BofA Global Research believes it better reflects the investment prospects of stocks in a Coverage Cluster.

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