Intuitive Machines

An execution story that promises the moon – Initiate at Underperform

Authored By
Analyst Name Ronald J. Epstein
Analyst Email r.epstein@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Research Analyst
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 5695
Analyst Name Mariana Perez Mora
Analyst Email mariana.perezmora@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Research Analyst
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Jordan Lyonnais
Analyst Email jordan.lyonnais@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Research Analyst
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Alexander Preston
Analyst Email alexander.preston@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Research Analyst
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Samantha Stiroh
Analyst Email samantha.stiroh@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Research Analyst
Analyst Region BofAS
Report Details
05 February 2025 Equity United States Aerospace

Intuitive Machines

An execution story that promises the moon – Initiate at Underperform

Authored By
Analyst Name Ronald J. Epstein
Analyst Email r.epstein@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Research Analyst
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 5695
Analyst Name Mariana Perez Mora
Analyst Email mariana.perezmora@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Research Analyst
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Jordan Lyonnais
Analyst Email jordan.lyonnais@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Research Analyst
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Alexander Preston
Analyst Email alexander.preston@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Research Analyst
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Samantha Stiroh
Analyst Email samantha.stiroh@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Research Analyst
Analyst Region BofAS
Report Details
05 February 2025 Equity United States Aerospace
Glossary
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BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

 

 
Initiating Coverage
UNDERPERFORM
Price
21.58
USD
Price Objective
16.00
USD
Upside
-25.9%
Market Cap
2,002
USD(mn)
Average Daily Value
344.66
USD(mn)
all data as of 5 February 2025
Ticker LUNR US
Company Financials
Initiating Coverage
UNDERPERFORM
Price
21.58
USD
Price Objective
16.00
USD
Upside
-25.9%
Market Cap
2,002
USD(mn)
Average Daily Value
344.66
USD(mn)
all data as of 5 February 2025



Key takeaways
  • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is a provider of access, data services, and infrastructure for commercializing the moon
  • We view LUNR's near dependence on NASA funding and uncertain revenue growth as key risks
  • We initiate coverage on LUNR with an Underperform rating and a PO of $16.00

Intuitive Machines

Solid niche, but bounded by execution & narrow opps

We initiate coverage on Intuitive Machines (LUNR) with an Underperform rating and a PO of $16.00. LUNR is a space services and technology provider, with capabilities including orbit and lunar surface access, lunar data services, and specialized space products and infrastructure. However, frothy valuation based on uncertain revenue growth coupled with a small array of customers and missions leads us to see better opportunities to gain exposure to commercial space.

Fortunes tied to challenged NASA milestones

LUNR generates nearly all of its revenue from programs supporting NASA's Artemis lunar exploration mission, which has faced numerous delays and cost overruns. Key LUNR contract wins aim to provide data transmission and connectivity services, surface cargo delivery, and lunar mobility for manned mission and unmanned operations. The company is highly exposed to a set of risks facing the program, from further delays and cost pressures to potential increased focus on Mars exploration to the detriment of Artemis and LUNR. Opportunities exist for LUNR to diversify its contracting base, especially with the new space-focused and commercially oriented Trump administration, but those impacts would not be felt for some time.

Growing backlog and contract wins, but conversion unclear

LUNR's path to converting its expanding backlog to revenue is uncertain given the complexity and discrete milestone nature of its mission set. Historical challenges faced by the company on forward revenue visibility further cloud expectations. Generation of revenues, both directly on contracted missions and from longer-term services contracts, rely on successful delivery of highly complex space infrastructure, and LUNR has already experienced delays and setbacks to its earliest programs, including the qualified success of IM-1 and scheduling pushbacks of subsequent missions.

$16.00 PO gives credit for first mover status

Our $16.00 price objective is based on a 5x EV/sales multiple on FY2026 estimates. A multiple above the high end of competitors (average 2.9x EV/2026E sales) fairly values successful selection on large, long-lived contracts and LUNR's developing ecosystem of unique capabilities in orbital and lunar surface access and space infrastructure.

 

Estimates & Valuation

 

Estimates (Dec) (US$)

2022

2023A

2024E

2025E

2026E

EPS

NA

2.46

(2.23)

(0.13)

0.10

EPS Change (YoY)

NA

NA

NM

94.2%

NM

Consensus EPS (Bloomberg)

 

 

(1.54)

(0.21)

0.23

DPS

NA

0

0

0

0

 

Valuation (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

P/E

NA

8.8x

NM

NM

215.8x

EV / EBITDA*

NA

NM

NM

NM

80.4x

Free Cash Flow Yield*

NA

-3.8%

-2.5%

-1.6%

0.3%

 

iQmethod SM Measures Definitions

Business Performance

Numerator

Denominator

Return On Capital Employed

NOPAT = (EBIT + Interest Income) × (1 − Tax Rate) + Goodwill Amortization

Total Assets − Current Liabilities + ST Debt + Accumulated Goodwill Amortization

Return On Equity

Net Income

Shareholders' Equity

Operating Margin

Operating Profit

Sales

Earnings Growth

Expected 5 Year CAGR From Latest Actual

N/A

Free Cash Flow

Cash Flow From Operations − Total Capex

N/A

Quality of Earnings

Numerator

Denominator

Cash Realization Ratio

Cash Flow From Operations

Net Income

Asset Replacement Ratio

Capex

Depreciation

Tax Rate

Tax Charge

Pre-Tax Income

Net Debt-To-Equity Ratio

Net Debt = Total Debt − Cash & Equivalents

Total Equity

Interest Cover

EBIT

Interest Expense

Valuation Toolkit

Numerator

Denominator

Price / Earnings Ratio

Current Share Price

Diluted Earnings Per Share (Basis As Specified)

Price / Book Value

Current Share Price

Shareholders' Equity / Current Basic Shares

Dividend Yield

Annualised Declared Cash Dividend

Current Share Price

Free Cash Flow Yield

Cash Flow From Operations − Total Capex

Market Cap = Current Share Price × Current Basic Shares

Enterprise Value / Sales

EV = Current Share Price × Current Shares + Minority Equity + Net Debt + Other LT Liabilities

Sales

EV / EBITDA

Enterprise Value

Basic EBIT + Depreciation + Amortization

iQmethod SMis the set of BofA Global Research standard measures that serve to maintain global consistency under three broad headings: Business Performance, Quality of Earnings, and validations. The key features of iQmethod are: A consistently structured, detailed, and transparent methodology. Guidelines to maximize the effectiveness of the comparative valuation process, and to identify some common pitfalls.

iQdatabase ® is our real-time global research database that is sourced directly from our equity analysts' earnings models and includes forecasted as well as historical data for income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements for companies covered by BofA Global Research.

iQprofile SM, iQmethod SM are service marks of Bank of America Corporation. iQdatabase ® is a registered service mark of Bank of America Corporation.

 
Intuitive Machines

Investment Thesis

 We initiate coverage on Intuitive Machines (LUNR) with an Underperform rating and a PO of $16.00. LUNR is a space services and technology provider, with capabilities including orbit and lunar surface access, lunar data services, and specialized space products and infrastructure. The company's primary products and services include dedicated lunar surface landing spacecraft, rideshare access for government and commercial payloads, and data transmission services between the Earth and moon. However, frothy valuation based on uncertain revenue growth coupled with a small array of customers and missions leads us to see better opportunities to gain exposure to commercial space.

Our $16.00 price objective is derived from a 5x EV/sales multiple on 2026 estimates. This valuation puts LUNR at the top end of space systems peers, which we see as fair given the company's relatively strong position on large, long-lived contracts.

Exhibit 1: A 5x 2026E EV/Sales multiple places LUNR above its peer group average

LUNR valuation framework at $16.00

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

 

 

 

LUNR EV/Sales Valuation ($, mn)

2026e

 

Sales

444

 

EV/Sales

5.0x

 

EV

$ 2,221

 

Debt

-

 

Cash

454

 

Minority interest

(1)

 

Preferred

(6)

 

Leases

(39)

 

Market Cap

$ 2,629

 

Shares

169

 

PO

$ 16.00

Source: BofA Global Research

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Investment Positives

(+) Land-and-expand strategy driving growth through expansion of services

We see LUNR as a leader in providing diversified, vertically integrated space systems capabilities across the commercial space economy. LUNR's model has seen it expand from an initial primary focus on developing lunar landing craft to providing interconnected operations, engineering, and communications services. Lunar Data Services is establishing a terrestrial and orbital communications capability key to support future lunar missions and providing networking needed to commercialize lunar space. Orbital Services programs are developing technologies for maintaining and extending the life of space assets, allowing for longer duration missions and on-orbit capabilities. Space Products & Infrastructure's in-house offerings in propulsion, navigation, communications, and specialized engineering products allow for ease of ramping spacecraft development.

Exhibit 2: LUNR has diversified beyond lunar access to provide various space services

US Government obligations by product code, 2020 - 2024 YTD ($, mn)

Exhibit 2: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, DACIS

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

IM-1 mission completion paves way for further opportunities

We view the company's successful IM-1 mission in early 2024 as a key derisking event for LUNR's lunar surface access business, expanding their mission opportunity set. IM-1 was supported by funding through NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, aiming to utilize private companies to deploy key payloads to the lunar surface. In February 2024, LUNR's Odysseus lander became the first US spacecraft to land on the moon since Apollo 17, although an instrument error contributed to the craft coming to rest sideways on the surface. The mission demonstrated key milestones for future lunar and deep-space missions. IM-1 performed the first-ever deep space ignition of the company's proprietary liquid methane/liquid oxygen (methalox) engine and became the first commercial lander to transmit scientific data from the moon's surface. LUNR has scheduled three additional landing missions, IM-2 in January 2025, IM-3 in 2026, and IM-4 in 2027, with each planned to deliver key technology demonstrations to support lunar commercialization. IM-3 will be particularly important to unlocking NSNS revenue, as the first of the company's five planned lunar communications satellites will be launched alongside the lander. Following delivery of the first satellite, LUNR will achieve operational service of NSNS and begin collecting recurring revenue from communications services. See Near Space Network Services (NSNS)

(+) Space agencies to rely more on commercial procurement

We see commercial partners gaining share and prioritization of space missions, a trend which could benefit LUNR. NASA's approach to its lunar Communications, Positioning, Navigation & Tracking (CPNT) architecture (including the NSNS awards won by LUNR thus far) was designed for commercial partners to take the lead on delivering hardware and continuous services as a means of accelerating delivery timelines and ensuring interoperability and network redundancy. Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) has provided additional opportunities for LUNR's landers to support NASA Artemis landing missions, and the Lunar Terrain Vehicle would see a further interconnection between NASA missions and commercial services. As the US Space Force (USSF) matures, we expect to see additional demand for commercial procurement to benefit industry first-movers with proven capabilities like LUNR.

Exhibit 3: NASA's CPNT architecture envisions multiple commercial operators providing capabilities

CPNT architecture schematic

Exhibit 3: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: NASA

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

(+) Strong positioning on long-duration contracts

LUNR has successfully embedded itself within lengthy NASA programs, offering the potential for durable revenues if missions are successfully executed. The NSNS award contains an initial five-year commitment with an available five-year option beyond that, while the Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) award would see LUNR provide lunar surface services for a 15-year duration. LUNR has also seen success in awards for its own lunar lander programs, with the IM-2, IM-3, and IM-4 missions already awarded and on-manifest through the CLPS program, with the latter mission currently scheduled for launch in 2027.

LUNR's growing base of active awards has driven significant growth in the company's backlog in recent quarters. LUNR backlog has increased by nearly $50mn in 2024 and more than doubled since Q1 2023, driven by additions of the IM-3 and IM-4 missions, task orders for LTV and NSNS, and other task orders. While backlog is an imperfect proxy for future revenue growth, a larger and more diverse backlog of program revenues should provide visibility for long term revenue and a leading indication of funded growth.

Exhibit 4: LUNR has more than doubled its backlog since Q1 2023

LUNR historical quarterly backlog ($, mn)

Exhibit 4: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, company filings

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

Investment Negatives

(-) Concentrated dependence on small number of customers

We see dependence on a select group of funding resources as a source of risk for LUNR. LUNR has historically relied on government funding for its operations, with the vast majority coming from NASA commitments. With the exception of the Joint Emergent Tech Supplying On-Orbit Nuclear Power (JETSON) program funded by the US Air Force, all significant awards to date have been provided through NASA. Transport of commercial payloads to the lunar surface remains a small portion of future revenues, while the largest revenue opportunities in LUNR's backlog - Near Space Network Services, Lunar Terrain Vehicle - serve to support NASA's Artemis mission and broader lunar exploration program.

Exhibit 5: LUNR has derived 98% of funding from NASA since 2020

Government contracting by agency, FY2020-FY2024

Exhibit 5: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, DACIS

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Reliance on at-risk NASA budget

Historical vulnerability of NASA's budget increases the risk to LUNR given its near-complete exposure to NASA programs for funding to date. Multiple key LUNR programs, including Near Space Network Services (NSNS) and Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) are contracted in support of NASA's Artemis program. The Trump administration's focus on cost-cutting and government efficiency, combined with the influence of Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could result in a shift away from NASA towards commercial programs. With Artemis years behind schedule, we see risks to the program's continued support, potentially upending LUNR's more significant contracts.

Exhibit 6: NASA's budget has been more volatile and cut-prone than other agencies

NASA historical budget ($, bn)

Exhibit 6: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, DACIS

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

(-) Low historical visibility to revenues

Lack of long-term visibility to future program completions has contributed to significant revisions in LUNR's revenue projections, well beyond peers. While growth has been strong in recent quarters - Y/Y revenue growth averaged 264% in the first three quarters of 2024 - program delays have resulted in significant adjustments to expectations compared to before LUNR's de-SPAC. At its December 2022 Investor Day, shortly before its public listing, the company's outlook was for 2023 revenue of $300mn increasing to $750mn in 2024. LUNR is now on pace to generate roughly $240mn in revenues in 2024, following negative growth in 2023. The complexity of LUNR's missions, their interconnectedness with NASA programs and launch providers, and current reliance on discrete milestone awards mean the company has relatively little control or forward visibility of revenue generation.

Exhibit 7: LUNR revenue revisions have outpaced most Space de-SPAC peers

FY2024 revenue estimates by company (indexed to January 2023 expectation = 100)

Exhibit 7: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, company filings, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

(-) Dependent on execution of high-risk missions

LUNR's business model relies on completion of a discrete set of highly complex, challenging missions, the failure of which could materially impact financial performance. While the company's IM-1 landing was labeled a success by both LUNR and NASA, it should be noted that an instrument failure resulted in the craft landing on its side, causing failure to properly deploy rideshare payloads and operate at full effectiveness during its mission life. LUNR plans to generate significant revenues from successful landings of future similar missions, including deployments of rideshare payloads in space and on the lunar surface, as well as forming the base of its NSNS constellation via rideshares on such missions. These missions involve manufacture and operation of expensive space vehicles and integration with costly, technically complex payloads that require precise mission parameters to successfully complete their objectives.

(-) Risk from shift of focus away from moon exploration to Mars

A potential prioritization of Mars exploration over current planned moon missions could jeopardize LUNR's existing contract awards, which are oriented toward the lunar Artemis program. Both President Trump and key advisor Elon Musk have called attention to Mars exploration as key priorities since the 2024 election. In his inaugural address, Trump made mention of a manned mission to Mars as a key goal of his administration, omitting mention of ongoing lunar activities. In a post on X, Elon Musk more explicitly stated "[W]e're going straight to Mars. The Moon is a distraction." While LUNR's technology and capabilities are largely applicable to Mars missions, a change in mission priority could upend existing contracts and disrupt the company's operations.

 

Intuitive Machines Overview

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is a space services and technology provider, with capabilities including orbit and lunar surface access, lunar data services, and specialized space products and infrastructure.

Exhibit 8: >70% of LUNR revenues come from fixed price contracts

FY2023 Revenue Split - Contracts

Exhibit 8: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: Company filings

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

Exhibit 9: Almost 90% of LUNR's FY2023 contract awards came from NASA

FY2023 Contract Award Split by Agency

Exhibit 9: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, DACIS

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

Core offerings

LUNR offers a variety of space infrastructure services across the low Earth orbit and lunar space value chains. Although LUNR reports financial data as one reportable segment, the company organizes its business into four business units: Lunar Access Services, Orbital Services, Lunar Data Services, and Space Products and Infrastructure. In combination, these offerings allow LUNR to offer an end-to-end solution for lunar exploration.

Lunar Access Services

LUNR provides payload access to the lunar surface for customers through rideshares, while also directly accessing the lunar surface with its lander spacecraft.

Nova-C lunar lander

In February 2024, LUNR completed its IM-1 landing mission, with its Nova-C lander touching down near the moon's South Pole. LUNR became the first commercial company to land on the moon, and the mission was the US's first to the lunar surface in decades.

Exhibit 10: LUNR's IM-1 mission was the first US lunar landing since Apollo 17

Nova-C lander rendering

Exhibit 10: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: Intuitive Machines

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

The small-class lander was initially designed for, and funded with support from, NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, originated in 2018. Nova-C is designed to deliver multiple science payloads to the moon, either landed or in orbit. The design used for IM-1 has a payload capacity of 130 kg and multiple mounting locations; an extended version of Nova-C can support up to 250 kg of payload.

Nova-D heavy lunar lander

LUNR is developing a larger lander for surface cargo applications and other infrastructure assets. Nova-D is designed to carry approximately 500-2500kg to the lunar surface, in comparison to Nova-C's 130kg capacity. Nova-D is key to LUNR's Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) proposal, aiming to deliver a pickup truck-sized lunar rover in support of NASA's Artemis mission. LUNR and NASA plan to complete a preliminary design review of the Nova-D lander for the LTV program in March 2025. In January 2025, LUNR won a one-year, $2.5mn Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnership (NEXTSTEP) NASA contract to study lunar logistics handling and surface cargo and mobility capabilities. LUNR will use the funding to develop the payload transportation technologies used by the Nova-D lander.

Surface Mobility

LUNR has developed Micro Nova Hopper (or µNova Hopper), a small-scale drone system designed to be deployed alongside Nova-C beginning with the 2025 IM-2 mission, at the direction of NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Tipping Point contract. Micro Nova is designed to carry up to 1 kg of payload up to 25 km from the main lander, allowing for expanded access to science missions including in permanently shaded areas of lunar craters, a key focus of lunar surface research.

Exhibit 11: Micro Nova Hopper is planned for deployment on the IM-2 mission in 2025

Micro Nova Hopper rendering

Exhibit 11: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: Intuitive Machines

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Rideshare Lunar Access

Alongside payload delivery to the lunar surface, LUNR offers capacity for rideshare payloads to be deployed in cislunar space. Currently, LUNR purchases an entire SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket to support its Nova-C launches, meaning LUNR can accommodate up to 1,000 kg of other payloads to lunar capture aboard the Falcon 9's second stage. Once separated, Nova-C can deploy an additional 390-1,375 kg (depending on desired altitude) in lunar orbit.

Orbital Services

Orbital Services provides on-orbit services for government and commercial customers. Services include repair, refueling, and orbit adjustment for existing satellites. The segment is aimed primarily at supporting satellites and future stations in Earth and lunar orbit. Most significantly, LUNR (through its 90/10 joint venture with KBR, Space Network Solutions) was awarded the Omnibus Multidisciplinary Engineering Services III (OMES III) contract from NASA in 2023 to demonstrate servicing and life extension capabilities for a NASA surveying satellite. LUNR also works with the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) on its Joint Energy Technology Supplying On-orbit Nuclear Power (JETSON) program to develop low-power nuclear capabilities for reliable energy capabilities.

Lunar Data Services

LUNR maintains a network of assets providing continuous data connectivity with the moon, including ground stations, mission control, and a planned constellation of relay satellites in lunar orbit. Data transmission capabilities are key to supporting orbital and surface lunar activities and expanding potential commercialization of the moon.

Lunar Data Network (LDN)

LUNR aims to deploy a constellation of satellites in lunar orbit to provide continuous data relay services between the surface and cislunar space. These satellites will provide communications, navigation, and data transfer support to future lunar missions, including LUNR's landings and NASA's Artemis lunar program. Demand for LUNR's data network from US agencies like NASA and the US Space Force has increased given China's competing aspirations to develop its own lunar satellite network in support of continued unmanned and manned missions to the moon, including a planned permanent human habitat. LUNR's data relay is supported by NASA's Near Space Network Services (NSNS) contract, funding a base value of $150mn for LUNR to deliver five communications satellites to lunar orbit for use by Artemis missions.

Space Products and Infrastructure

Space Products and Infrastructure provides space products including propulsion systems, navigation systems, lunar mobility, and power infrastructure to customers. Capabilities within additive manufacturing and composites allow LUNR to produce reliable prototypes, development and flight parts, and spares, with plans to leverage the segment to expand into prime positions on NASA and other customer payload contracts.

Key Contracts

Exhibit 12: LUNR is active on a diverse array of programs but works nearly exclusively with NASA

Key active LUNR programs

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

LTVS

OMES III

CLPS 3

NSNS

JETSON

HHPC

 

Lunar Terrain

Omnibus Multidiscipline Engineering Svcs

Commercial Lunar

Near Space Network Services

Joint Emergent Tech Supplying

Human Health and Performance Contract

Vehicle Services

Payload Services

On-Orbit Nuclear Power

Customer

NASA

NASA

NASA

NASA

USAF

NASA

Start Date

3/28/2024

7/1/2023

11/29/2018

10/1/2024

9/29/2023

11/1/2015

End Date

3/27/2039

6/30/2028

11/28/2028

9/30/2034

3/29/2028

10/31/2025

Ceiling

$4,786mn

$719mn

$2,600mn

$4,820mn

$26mn

$1,901mn

Contract Position

Prime / Teaming

Joint Venture / Team

Prime / Teaming

Prime

Prime

Joint Venture / Team

Awarded to Date

$148mn

$163mn

$344mn

$9mn

$10mn

$ -

Source: BofA Global Research, DACIS

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 Near Space Network Services (NSNS)

September 2024 award: Near Space Relay

In September 2024, NASA awarded LUNR a Near Space Network contract for communication and navigation services between the Earth and moon. LUNR was awarded under the Space Relay subcategory, for data services linking assets in geostationary Earth orbit to the moon. The firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) award has a base value of $150mn and timeline of five years, with an additional five-year option available.

LUNR will provide five satellites to lunar orbit to establish a communications constellation, and then provide communications and navigation services for future lunar missions with those assets. NSNS is intended to support NASA's Artemis program, aiming to return US astronauts to the moon. The first of the satellites is planned to ride alongside LUNR's IM-3 landing mission in 2026. Delivery of this satellite will unlock initial operational service of the network, enabling LUNR to begin collecting recurring "pay-by-the-minute" revenues for data transmission service, including support of Artemis missions. Satellites two and three are expected aboard IM-4 in 2027, with two final satellites to be delivered on a future mission.

December 2024 award: Direct to Earth

In December 2024, LUNR received two additional task orders under the Direct to Earth Geostationary to Cislunar and xCislunar subcategories, providing data services between geostationary Earth orbit to cislunar space, and for deep space missions and specialized orbits, respectively. It is important to note these task orders, under the Direct to Earth category of NSNS, are focused on ground-based communications and navigation services and do not entail additional satellite deployments.

Exhibit 13: Direct to Earth services do not involve a new constellation like Near Space Relay services

Planned Near Space Network coverage regions

Exhibit 13: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: NASA

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

The total value of the NSNS contract is up to $4.82bn. As of December 2024, four companies including LUNR have received contracts and task orders for NSNS, meaning LUNR is not expected to receive the entirety of the contract value. The program allows for continuous on-ramps throughout its life, so other new entrants may be selected to provide services in the future. To date, LUNR has received obligations of $9.0mn through the contract vehicle.

Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV)

In April 2024, LUNR, Lunar Outpost, and Venturi Astrolab were each awarded positions to compete for NASA's Lunar Terrain rover program, designed to deliver a human-rated lunar surface rover. Under the Phase 1 award, each team is tasked with completing feasibility studies and preliminary designs for the project. Phase 1 is expected to last one year, at which point Phase 2 is expected to downselect to one team to provide the system. LUNR, as prime contractor for its Reusable Autonomous Crewed Exploration Rover (RACER) proposal, will lead systems integration, various subsystem designs, and operations and testing. LUNR partnered with AVL, Boeing, Michelin, and Northrop Grumman on the proposal. Phase 1 of LTV amounts to a $30mn, one year task order for each team. The ultimate program is expected to last 15 years, including services and support for the vehicle once it arrives on the moon. The LTV contract has a maximum award value of $4.6bn.

Exhibit 14: LUNR teamed with AVL, Boeing, Michelin, and Northrop Grumman on the LTV program

LUNR LTV design rendering

Exhibit 14: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: Intuitive Machines

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) 3

NASA's CLPS program, starting in late 2018, aims to provide delivery services for science and technology payloads by private companies to the lunar surface in support of the larger Artemis lunar program. Main contractors (to supply landers) include LUNR, Astrobotic Technologies (private), Firefly Aerospace (private), and Draper Laboratories (private). NASA has awarded four landing missions to LUNR, with the most recent (IM-4) awarded in August 2024 and scheduled for 2027 launch. CLPS has a maximum value of $2.6bn, of which $344mn has been obligated to LUNR through FY24.

Omnibus Multidiscipline Engineering Services (OMES) III

Space Network Solutions, a 90/10 joint venture between LUNR and KBR, was awarded a 5-year, $719mn cost-plus-fixed-fee ID/IQ contract in August 2023 for engineering services in support of the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and NASA Exploration and In-space Services (NExIS) programs. Work under the OMES-III contract will include instrument systems engineering, design and analysis services, and testing and fabrication to support JPSS, a key weather monitoring constellation. A portion of the program, On-orbit Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing (OSAM)-1 was cancelled by NASA in September 2024 following cost overruns.

Joint Emergent Tech Supplying On-orbit Nuclear Power (JETSON)

Awarded in September 2023, JETSON aims to develop nuclear-based space power capabilities for long term mission power consumption needs. LUNR was awarded a $26mn firm fixed price contract by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) under the Low Power application, developing reliable, compact radioisotope power sources for use in on-orbit mobility, thermal systems, and payload operation for small-scale satellites. The program aims to support NASA's Gateway, a planned manned outpost in lunar orbit. Access to nuclear power sources is critical, as solar panels will not provide power when positioned in the moon's shadow and batteries add significant mass to orbiting spacecraft.

 

Balance sheet and capital access

 As an early-stage company, managing cash burn and maintaining access to capital markets are critical factors for the company's growth trajectory.

Capital raising transactions

The company completed its de-SPAC reverse merger with Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. (IPAX) in February 2023. Although the pre-close investment trust totaled around $330mn in commitments, around 83% of investors redeemed their shares prior to close. LUNR received gross proceeds of $34.1mn from the transaction at close. Termination of a related forward purchase agreement with two investors resulted in an additional $12.7mn raised by LUNR in February 2023. Between 1Q2023 and 2Q2024, LUNR raised a further $67.5mn from exercise of issued warrants.

The company completed two large capital raise transactions in 2024. In March 2024, LUNR launched an at-the-market (ATM) offering of up to $100mn of common stock. LUNR completed the offering in 3Q2024. In December 2024, LUNR completed a $110mn primary add-on issuance of shares, from which it received net proceeds of approximately $104mn.

Balance sheet dynamics

As of 3Q2024, LUNR reported cash and equivalents of $89.6mn and no debt. Last twelve month free cash flow was $(85.4)mn. As of the end of 3Q2024, management noted the company had enough cash runway to last at least another 12 months. We see LUNR becoming cash flow positive in 2026, coincident with when we expect LUNR to begin generating positive operating margins.

Exhibit 15: We expect LUNR to reach positive free cash flow starting in 2026

BofAe LUNR annual free cash flow ($, mn)

Exhibit 15: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, company filings

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 Price performance and comp table

Despite a long period of underperformance in the months after completion of its de-SPAC transaction, LUNR has outperformed the market since it began trading. Following an over 8x increase in the days following its de-SPAC, the stock underperformed significantly, closing at a low of $2.11 on 1/4/2024. Around a month later, the company completed its IM-1 landing, leading to a brief resurgence over its initial trading price. Performance remained weak until LUNR was announced as a winner of the NSNS contract in mid-September 2024. This announcement, subsequent awards, and positive sentiment in commercial space post-election have resulted in a 299.6% increase in LUNR's stock price since September 17, 2024 (compared to 7.2% for the S&P 500).

The 2024 US election results catalyzed a period of strong outperformance for commercial space stocks including LUNR. LUNR finished up 6.7% the day following the election (compared to S&P 500 up 2.5%) and has increased 178.8% since the election vs. S&P 500 up 4.4%. Trump and Elon Musk are seen as strong supporters of the US commercial space industry. During his first term, Trump both established the Artemis program as a policy directive and worked to establish the US Space Force as the newest military branch. In his second inaugural address, Trump mentioned a continued focus on expanding American capabilities in space, including a goal of landing astronauts on Mars.

Exhibit 17: LUNR has outperformed the market since its de-SPAC

LUNR indexed price return vs. the S&P 500 (note: LUNR indexed peak in Feb. 2023 was 817)

Exhibit 17: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Exhibit 18: LUNR trades at a significant premium to its peer group, but forward topline growth is also above its peers

LUNR peer group key valuation and financial metrics

  

Rev Growth

EV/Sales (x)

EV/Rev/Growth

Company

CY2023A

CY2024E

CY2025E

CY2026E

CY2027E

CY2023A

CY2024E

CY2025E

CY2026E

CY2027E

CY2023A

CY2024E

CY2025E

CY2026E

CY2027E

Intuitive Machines

-17%

209%

61%

36%

-22%

44.0x

14.2x

8.9x

6.5x

8.4x

-2.7x

0.1x

0.1x

0.2x

-0.4x

Space Names

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spire Global Inc

32%

14%

14%

22%

68%

5.2x

4.5x

4.0x

3.3x

1.9x

0.2x

0.3x

0.3x

0.1x

0.0x

Ltd

26%

30%

31%

20%

0%

3.9x

3.0x

2.3x

1.9x

1.9x

0.1x

0.1x

0.1x

0.1x

-6.6x

Redwire Corp

52%

29%

34%

35%

 

8.1x

6.3x

4.7x

3.5x

 

0.2x

0.2x

0.1x

0.1x

0.0x

Average

36%

24%

26%

26%

34%

5.7x

4.6x

3.6x

2.9x

1.9x

0.2x

0.2x

0.2x

0.1x

-2.2x

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

Corporate Details

  • Headquartered in Houston, TX
  • Intuitive Machines became publicly listed via a reverse merger with Inflection Point Acquisition Corporation (ticker: IPAX), a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). The deal was announced September 16, 2022.
  • Intuitive Machines became publicly traded on the Nasdaq on February 14, 2023, under the ticker "LUNR".

Management Team

Kam Ghaffarian - Co-Founder & Chairman

Kam Ghaffarian is Co-Founder and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Intuitive Machines. Ghaffarian has co-founded several other companies, including IBX, Axiom Space, X-energy, and Quantum Space.

Dr. Ghaffarian started his entrepreneurial career in 1994 by founding Stinger Ghaffarian Technologies, Inc., a government services company focusing on IT, engineering, and science applications. Dr. Ghaffarian has also held numerous technical and management positions at Lockheed Martin, Ford Aerospace, and Loral.

Steve Altemus - Co-Founder, President & Chief Executive Officer

Steve Altemus is Co-Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Intuitive Machines. Before founding Intuitive Machines in December 2012, he served as the Deputy Director of NASA's Johnson Space Center.

He joined NASA's Kennedy Space Center and the Space Shuttle Program in 1989, where he held progressively more responsible positions working in Space Shuttle operations, launch, and landing activities. He served as the Columbia Reconstruction Director after the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia on February 1, 2003. In January 2005, he joined Johnson Space Center, serving as the Deputy Director of Engineering, and was subsequently selected as Director in July 2006.

Dr. Timothy Crain - Co-Founder, Senior Vice President & Chief Growth Officer

Dr. Timothy Crain is Co-Founder, Senior Vice President, and Chief Growth Officer of Intuitive Machines. He began his professional career in 2000 at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, TX, where he was a lead engineer in the Engineering Directorate's Aeroscience and Flight Mechanics Division. During his tenure at JSC, he worked on the navigation design for Mars Science Lander and was the Orbit Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) System Manager for the Orion spacecraft.

Annachiara Jones - General Counsel & Corporate Secretary

Anna Jones is General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of Intuitive Machines. Before joining Intuitive Machines, Anna was Vice President of Securities and Corporate Counsel at Paysafe Limited. Previously, Anna served as Assistant General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at Marathon Oil Corporation. Anna has also held legal positions at ConocoPhillips, Spectra Energy Corp, and Hyatt Hotels Corporation. Anna began her legal career as a corporate associate at Latham & Watkins LLP.

Ben Bussey - Chief Scientist

Ben Bussey is Chief Scientist of Intuitive Machines. Dr. Bussey recently completed a 5-year assignment at NASA HQ which included being the Acting Deputy Associate Administrator of Exploration in NASA's Science Mission Directorate. Before that he was the Chief Exploration Scientist in NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. Prior to his positions at NASA headquarters, he was Principal Investigator of NASA VORTICES SSERVI and NASA Lunar Science Institute research teams that considered the exploration and scientific potential of the lunar poles. He was the Principal Investigator of the Mini-RF radar instrument on NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, and Deputy Principal Investigator of the Mini-RF radar instrument on India's Chandrayaan-1 mission.

Bob Pavelko - Executive Director, Defense Programs

Bob Pavelko is Executive Director of Defense Programs at Intuitive Machines. Bob is a retired US Air Force Colonel who served over 28 years and held numerous assignments throughout the National Security Space enterprise in executive leadership, space operations, program management, policy, and legislative liaison duties. He commanded multiple operational units and was dynamically engaged throughout the entire program life cycle of a broad spectrum of DoD weapon systems and technologies in satellite command and control; space launch and range; communications; space control; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, involving Interagency and International coordination.

Jack Fischer - Senior Vice President of Production & Operations

Jack Fischer is Senior Vice President of Production and Operations at Intuitive Machines. Jack is a senior space ops leader, combat fighter pilot, astronaut, and flight test expert with 27 years of experience, with flight experience including 3,000 hours in over 40 aircraft and 136 days in space with two spacewalks.

Jade Marcantel - Chief Human Capital Officer

Jade Marcantel is Chief Human Capital Officer of Intuitive Machines. Before joining Intuitive Machines, Jade served in multiple positions at KBR, Inc., including corporate Director of Talent Development and Chief of Staff for their Defense and Intel Business Unit. Prior to KBR, she held leadership positions in Human Resources and Information Technology for an oilfield services firm.

Peter McGrath - Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer

Peter McGrath is Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Intuitive Machines. Prior to joining Intuitive Machines in August 2020, Mr. McGrath worked at Boeing in the Global Sales and Marketing organization. Peter began his 31-year career at Boeing as a Structural Analyst on the International Space Station.

Stephen Zhang - Senior Director of Investor Relations

Stephen Zhang is Senior Director of Investor Relations at Intuitive Machines. Before joining Intuitive Machines, Stephen was the Vice President of Investor Relations at Virgin Orbit where he established an investor relations program for the newly public company. Prior to Virgin Orbit, he was the Director of Investor Relations at Raytheon Technologies.

Steve Labbe - Vice President of Engineering

Steve Labbe is Vice President of Engineering at Intuitive Machines. He leads the design, development, testing, and engineering of the Nova-C lunar lander and systems. Steve spent 37 years in NASA's Human Space Flight programs, including work on the Space Shuttle, X-38, International Space Station, Commercial Cargo & Crew, Constellation, Orion, and Gateway programs.

Steve Vontur - Chief Accounting Officer & Controller

Steve Vontur is Chief Accounting Officer and Controller of Intuitive Machines. Prior to joining Intuitive Machines, he worked at several private companies in various capacities, providing public company readiness and other accounting services from September 2020 to June 2022. Steven spent the majority of his career at KBR, Inc. Steven began his career in public accounting from 1993 to 2004, primarily in the audit practice of Ernst & Young LLP.

Tom Niemeyer - Vice President of Federal Services

Tom Niemeyer is Vice President of Federal Services at Intuitive Machines. He is responsible for monetizing and expanding Intuitive Machines' commercial and Government sales of services and products complementary to development and operations of cis-lunar landers, satellites, machines, and infrastructure and supporting the planning and execution of the launch site checkout, processing, and support at the Kennedy Space Center.

Trent Martin - Senior Vice President of Space Systems

Trent Martin is Senior Vice President of Space Systems at Intuitive Machines. He manages the Lunar Access program and leads teams in building, flying, and operating lunar landers, hoppers, and surface assets. Tom was the Johnson Space Center Associate Director of Engineering for Advanced Development and managed many new technologies and R&D projects required to take humans back to the Moon and onto Mars.

Wogbe Ofori - Partnerships and Open Innovation Strategist

Wogbe Ofori is Partnerships and Open Innovation Strategist at Intuitive Machines. He founded WRX Companies, a strategic advisory firm providing insights and guidance to innovative industrial companies and hardtech startups.

Board of Directors

  • Kam Ghaffarian, Co-Founder & Chairman of Intuitive Machines
  • Steve Altemus, Co-Founder, President & Chief Executive Officer of Intuitive Machines
  • Michael Blitzer, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Inflection Point Acquisition Corp., Founder & Co-Chief Investment Officer, Kingstown Capital Management
  • Lt. Gen. (Ret.) William J. Liquori, former US Space Force Chief Strategy and Resourcing Officer
  • Robert L. Masson, Chief Financial Officer of Latham Group
  • Nicole Seligman, former President of Sony Entertainment and Sony Corporation

 

 

Company Description

Investment Rationale


 

iQmethod SM - Bus Performance*

 

 

 

 

 

(US$ Millions)

2022

2023A

2024E

2025E

2026E

Return on Capital Employed

NA

NA

-24.6%

-1.9%

2.5%

Return on Equity

NA

NM

NM

NM

NM

Operating Margin

NA

18.9%

-80.4%

-2.8%

3.7%

Free Cash Flow

NA

(75)

(51)

(32)

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

iQmethod SM - Quality of Earnings*

 

 

 

 

 

(US$ Millions)

2022

2023A

2024E

2025E

2026E

Cash Realization Ratio

NA

-0.7x

NM

NM

1.2x

Asset Replacement Ratio

NA

21.7x

3.6x

2.8x

2.9x

Tax Rate

NA

NM

0%

NM

NM

Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio

NA

NM

-225.4%

-123.4%

-115.4%

Interest Cover

NA

NM

NA

NA

NA

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income Statement Data (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

(US$ Millions)

2022

2023A

2024E

2025E

2026E

Sales

NA

80

235

329

444

% Change

NA

NA

195.5%

40.0%

35.0%

Gross Profit

NA

80

235

329

444

% Change

NA

NA

195.5%

40.0%

35.0%

EBITDA

NA

(50)

(41)

3

31

% Change

NA

NA

17.4%

NM

NM

Net Interest & Other Income

NA

71

(138)

0

0

Net Income (Adjusted)

NA

63

(142)

(14)

11

% Change

NA

NA

NM

90.2%

NM

 

 

 

 

 

 

Free Cash Flow Data (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

(US$ Millions)

2022

2023A

2024E

2025E

2026E

Net Income from Cont Operations (GAAP)

NA

(27)

(236)

(5)

22

Depreciation & Amortization

NA

1

2

2

2

Change in Working Capital

NA

6

(10)

(29)

(18)

Deferred Taxation Charge

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Other Adjustments, Net

NA

(26)

199

6

7

Capital Expenditure

NA

(30)

(7)

(6)

(7)

Free Cash Flow

NA

-75

-51

-32

6

% Change

NA

NA

32.4%

37.9%

NM

Share / Issue Repurchase

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Cost of Dividends Paid

NA

0

0

0

0

Change in Debt

NA

(12)

(8)

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Balance Sheet Data (Dec)

 

 

 

 

 

(US$ Millions)

2022

2023A

2024E

2025E

2026E

Cash & Equivalents

NA

5

202

422

428

Trade Receivables

NA

17

0

0

0

Other Current Assets

NA

10

0

0

0

Property, Plant & Equipment

NA

18

18

22

26

Other Non-Current Assets

NA

36

99

128

146

Total Assets

NA

86

319

572

601

Short-Term Debt

NA

54

0

0

0

Other Current Liabilities

NA

30

0

0

0

Long-Term Debt

NA

31

0

0

0

Other Non-Current Liabilities

NA

25

229

229

229

Total Liabilities

NA

139

229

229

229

Total Equity

NA

(53)

89

342

371

Total Equity & Liabilities

NA

86

319

572

601

* Click for full definitions of iQmethodâ„  measures.

 

 

Intuitive Machines (LUNR)

Our $16.00 price objective is derived from a 5x EV/sales multiple on 2026 estimates. This valuation puts LUNR at the top end of space systems peers, which we see as fair given the company's relatively strong position on large, long-lived contracts.

Downside risks to our PO are production delays, setbacks to the economic recovery, and execution challenges. Upside risks to our PO are better-than-expected cost cutting and margin expansion, market share gains, higher utilization levels, and better-than-expected commercialization.

 

 

 

US - Aerospace and Defense Coverage Cluster

Investment rating

Company

BofA Ticker

Bloomberg symbol

Analyst

BUY

 

AerCap Holdings N.V.

AER

AER US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Air Lease Corporation

AL

AL US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Axon Enterprise Inc

AXON

AXON US

Jordan Lyonnais

 

Bombardier

BDRBF

BDRBF US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Bombardier Inc.

YBBD B

BBD/B CN

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Booz Allen Hamilton

BAH

BAH US

Mariana Perez Mora

 

BWX Technologies, Inc.

BWXT

BWXT US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

CACI International

CACI

CACI US

Mariana Perez Mora

 

Cadre Holdings Inc

CDRE

CDRE US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Crane Co.

CR

CR US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Embraer

ERJ

ERJ US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

GE Aerospace

GE

GE US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

General Dynamics

GD

GD US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

HEICO Corporation

HEI

HEI US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Howmet Aerospace Inc.

HWM

HWM US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

KBR

KBR

KBR US

Mariana Perez Mora

 

L3Harris

LHX

LHX US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Leidos Holdings

LDOS

LDOS US

Mariana Perez Mora

 

Lockheed Martin

LMT

LMT US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Northrop Grumman

NOC

NOC US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

OSI Systems

OSIS

OSIS US

Mariana Perez Mora

 

Palantir Technologies

PLTR

PLTR US

Mariana Perez Mora

 

Parsons Corporation

PSN

PSN US

Mariana Perez Mora

 

Rocket Lab

RKLB

RKLB US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

RTX Corp

RTX

RTX US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Teledyne Technologies Inc

TDY

TDY US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

TransDigm Group Inc.

TDG

TDG US

Ronald J. Epstein

NEUTRAL

 

Boeing

BA

BA US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Leonardo DRS, Inc.

DRS

DRS US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

RBC Bearings Inc

RBC

RBC US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

StandardAero

SARO

SARO US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Textron

TXT

TXT US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

V2X

VVX

VVX US

Mariana Perez Mora

UNDERPERFORM

 

Albany International

AIN

AIN US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

CAE Inc.

YCAE

CAE CN

Ronald J. Epstein

 

CAE Inc.

CAE

CAE US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Garmin

GRMN

GRMN US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Hexcel Corporation

HXL

HXL US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Huntington Ingalls Industries

HII

HII US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Intuitive Machines

LUNR

LUNR US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

Mercury Systems

MRCY

MRCY US

Ronald J. Epstein

 

 

 

I, Ronald J. Epstein, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report.

 

 

 Important Disclosures

 

Equity Investment Rating Distribution: Aerospace/Defense Electronics Group (as of 31 Dec 2024)

Coverage Universe

Count

Percent

Inv. Banking Relationships R1

Count

Percent

Buy

36

69.23%

Buy

29

80.56%

Hold

8

15.38%

Hold

4

50.00%

Sell

8

15.38%

Sell

7

87.50%

 

Equity Investment Rating Distribution: Global Group (as of 31 Dec 2024)

Coverage Universe

Count

Percent

Inv. Banking Relationships R1

Count

Percent

Buy

1869

54.39%

Buy

1108

59.28%

Hold

766

22.29%

Hold

463

60.44%

Sell

801

23.31%

Sell

370

46.19%

 R1 Issuers that were investment banking clients of BofA Securities or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months. For purposes of this Investment Rating Distribution, the coverage universe includes only stocks. A stock rated Neutral is included as a Hold, and a stock rated Underperform is included as a Sell.

 

FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicators of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst's assessment of both a stock's absolute total return potential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat or increase in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. An investment rating of 6 (No Rating) indicates that a stock is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. Analysts assign investment ratings considering, among other things, the 0-12 month total return expectation for a stock and the firm's guidelines for ratings dispersions (shown in the table below). The current price objective for a stock should be referenced to better understand the total return expectation at any given time. The price objective reflects the analyst's view of the potential price appreciation (depreciation).

Investment rating

Total return expectation (within 12-month period of date of initial rating)

Ratings dispersion guidelines for coverage clusterR2

Buy

≥ 10%

≤ 70%

Neutral

≥ 0%

≤ 30%

Underperform

N/A

≥ 20%

 R2Ratings dispersions may vary from time to time where BofA Global Research believes it better reflects the investment prospects of stocks in a Coverage Cluster.

INCOME RATINGS, indicators of potential cash dividends, are: 7 - same/higher (dividend considered to be secure), 8 - same/lower (dividend not considered to be secure) and 9 - pays no cash dividend. Coverage Cluster is comprised of stocks covered by a single analyst or two or more analysts sharing a common industry, sector, region or other classification(s). A stock's coverage cluster is included in the most recent BofA Global Research report referencing the stock. 

 

BofAS or one of its affiliates acts as a market maker for the equity securities recommended in the report: Intuitive.

BofAS or an affiliate was a manager of a public offering of securities of this issuer within the last 12 months: Intuitive Machines.

The issuer is or was, within the last 12 months, an investment banking client of BofAS and/or one or more of its affiliates: Intuitive Machines.

BofAS or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months: Intuitive Machines.

BofAS or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer or an affiliate of the issuer within the next three months: Intuitive Machines.

BofAS or one of its affiliates is willing to sell to, or buy from, clients the common equity of the issuer on a principal basis: Intuitive.

BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s) responsible for this report) receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of Bank of America Corporation, including profits derived from investment banking. The analyst(s) responsible for this report may also receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of the Bank's sales and trading businesses relating to the class of securities or financial instruments for which such analyst is responsible.

 

Other Important Disclosures

From time to time research analysts conduct site visits of covered issuers. BofA Global Research policies prohibit research analysts from accepting payment or reimbursement for travel expenses from the issuer for such visits.

Prices are indicative and for information purposes only. Except as otherwise stated in the report, for any recommendation in relation to an equity security, the price referenced is the publicly traded price of the security as of close of business on the day prior to the date of the report or, if the report is published during intraday trading, the price referenced is indicative of the traded price as of the date and time of the report and in relation to a debt security (including equity preferred and CDS), prices are indicative as of the date and time of the report and are from various sources including BofA Securities trading desks.

The date and time of completion of the production of any recommendation in this report shall be the date and time of dissemination of this report as recorded in the report timestamp.

 

Recipients who are not institutional investors or market professionals should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor before considering information in this report in connection with any investment decision, or for a necessary explanation of its contents.

Officers of BofAS or one or more of its affiliates (other than research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or in related investments.

Refer to BofA Global Research policies relating to conflicts of interest.

"BofA Securities" includes BofA Securities, Inc. ("BofAS") and its affiliates. Investors should contact their BofA Securities representative or Merrill Global Wealth Management financial advisor if they have questions concerning this report or concerning the appropriateness of any investment idea described herein for such investor. "BofA Securities" is a global brand for BofA Global Research.

Information relating to Non-US affiliates of BofA Securities and Distribution of Affiliate Research Reports:


​​BofAS and/or Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated ("MLPF&S") may in the future distribute, information of the following non-US affiliates in the US (short name: legal name, regulator): Merrill Lynch (South Africa): Merrill Lynch South Africa (Pty) Ltd., regulated by The Financial Service Board; MLI (UK): Merrill Lynch International, regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA); BofASE (France): BofA Securities Europe SA is authorized by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR) and regulated by the ACPR and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). BofA Securities Europe SA ("BofASE") with registered address at 51, rue La Boétie, 75008 Paris is registered under no 842 602 690 RCS Paris. In accordance with the provisions of French Code Monétaire et Financier (Monetary and Financial Code), BofASE is an établissement de crédit et d'investissement (credit and investment institution) that is authorised and supervised by the European Central Bank and the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR) and regulated by the ACPR and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers. BofASE's share capital can be found at www.bofaml.com/BofASEdisclaimer; BofA Europe (Milan): Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company, Milan Branch, regulated by the Bank of Italy, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI); BofA Europe (Frankfurt): Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company, Frankfurt Branch regulated by BaFin, the ECB and the CBI; BofA Europe (Madrid): Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company, Sucursal en España, regulated by the Bank of Spain, the ECB and the CBI; Merrill Lynch (Australia): Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited, regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission; Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong): Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited, regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFC); Merrill Lynch (Singapore): Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS); Merrill Lynch (Canada): Merrill Lynch Canada Inc, regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization; Merrill Lynch (Mexico): Merrill Lynch Mexico, SA de CV, Casa de Bolsa, regulated by the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores; BofAS Japan: BofA Securities Japan Co., Ltd., regulated by the Financial Services Agency; Merrill Lynch (Seoul): Merrill Lynch International, LLC Seoul Branch, regulated by the Financial Supervisory Service; Merrill Lynch (Taiwan): Merrill Lynch Securities (Taiwan) Ltd., regulated by the Securities and Futures Bureau; BofAS India: BofA Securities India Limited, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI); Merrill Lynch (Israel): Merrill Lynch Israel Limited, regulated by Israel Securities Authority; Merrill Lynch (DIFC): Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Merrill Lynch S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários, regulated by Comissão de Valores Mobiliários; Merrill Lynch KSA Company: Merrill Lynch Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Company, regulated by the Capital Market Authority.​

This information: has been approved for publication and is distributed in the United Kingdom (UK) to professional clients and eligible counterparties (as each is defined in the rules of the FCA and the PRA) by MLI (UK), which is authorized by the PRA and regulated by the FCA and the PRA - details about the extent of our regulation by the FCA and PRA are available from us on request; has been approved for publication and is distributed in the European Economic Area (EEA) by BofASE (France), which is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the ACPR and the AMF; has been considered and distributed in Japan by BofAS Japan, a registered securities dealer under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act in Japan, or its permitted affiliates; is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) which is regulated by HKSFC; is issued and distributed in Taiwan by Merrill Lynch (Taiwan); is issued and distributed in India by BofAS India; and is issued and distributed in Singapore to institutional investors and/or accredited investors (each as defined under the Financial Advisers Regulations) by Merrill Lynch (Singapore) (Company Registration No 198602883D). Merrill Lynch (Singapore) is regulated by MAS. Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited (ABN 65 006 276 795), AFS License 235132 (MLEA) distributes this information in Australia only to 'Wholesale' clients as defined by s.761G of the Corporations Act 2001. With the exception of Bank of America N.A., Australia Branch, neither MLEA nor any of its affiliates involved in preparing this information is an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution under the Banking Act 1959 nor regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. No approval is required for publication or distribution of this information in Brazil and its local distribution is by Merrill Lynch (Brazil) in accordance with applicable regulations. Merrill Lynch (DIFC) is authorized and regulated by the DFSA. Information prepared and issued by Merrill Lynch (DIFC) is done so in accordance with the requirements of the DFSA conduct of business rules. BofA Europe (Frankfurt) distributes this information in Germany and is regulated by BaFin, the ECB and the CBI. BofA Securities entities, including BofA Europe and BofASE (France), may outsource/delegate the marketing and/or provision of certain research services or aspects of research services to other branches or members of the BofA Securities group. You may be contacted by a different BofA Securities entity acting for and on behalf of your service provider where permitted by applicable law. This does not change your service provider. Please refer to the Electronic Communications Disclaimers for further information.

​This information has been prepared and issued by BofAS and/or one or more of its non-US affiliates. The author(s) of this information may not be licensed to carry on regulated activities in your jurisdiction and, if not licensed, do not hold themselves out as being able to do so. BofAS and/or MLPF&S is the distributor of this information in the US and accepts full responsibility for information distributed to BofAS and/or MLPF&S clients in the US by its non-US affiliates. Any US person receiving this information and wishing to effect any transaction in any security discussed herein should do so through BofAS and/or MLPF&S and not such foreign affiliates. Hong Kong recipients of this information should contact Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited in respect of any matters relating to dealing in securities or provision of specific advice on securities or any other matters arising from, or in connection with, this information. Singapore recipients of this information should contact Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this information. For clients that are not accredited investors, expert investors or institutional investors Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd accepts full responsibility for the contents of this information distributed to such clients in Singapore.

General Investment Related Disclosures:

Taiwan Readers: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to transact in any securities or other financial instrument. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or any other person without the express written consent of BofA Securities.

This document provides general information only, and has been prepared for, and is intended for general distribution to, BofA Securities clients. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of, and is not directed to, any specific person(s). This document and its content do not constitute, and should not be considered to constitute, investment advice for purposes of ERISA, the US tax code, the Investment Advisers Act or otherwise. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this document.

Securities and other financial instruments referred to herein, or recommended, offered or sold by BofA Securities, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution (including, Bank of America, N.A.). Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. Digital assets are extremely speculative, volatile and are largely unregulated. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change.

This report may contain a short-term trading idea or recommendation, which highlights a specific near-term catalyst or event impacting the issuer or the market that is anticipated to have a short-term price impact on the equity securities of the issuer. Short-term trading ideas and recommendations are different from and do not affect a stock's fundamental equity rating, which reflects both a longer term total return expectation and attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster. Short-term trading ideas and recommendations may be more or less positive than a stock's fundamental equity rating.

BofA Securities is aware that the implementation of the ideas expressed in this report may depend upon an investor's ability to "short" securities or other financial instruments and that such action may be limited by regulations prohibiting or restricting "shortselling" in many jurisdictions. Investors are urged to seek advice regarding the applicability of such regulations prior to executing any short idea contained in this report.

Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned herein. Investors in such securities and instruments, including ADRs, effectively assume currency risk.

BofAS or one of its affiliates is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may have been recommended in this report. BofAS or one of its affiliates may, at any time, hold a trading position (long or short) in the securities and financial instruments discussed in this report.

BofA Securities, through business units other than BofA Global Research, may have issued and may in the future issue trading ideas or recommendations that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. Such ideas or recommendations may reflect different time frames, assumptions, views and analytical methods of the persons who prepared them, and BofA Securities is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this information.

In the event that the recipient received this information pursuant to a contract between the recipient and BofAS for the provision of research services for a separate fee, and in connection therewith BofAS may be deemed to be acting as an investment adviser, such status relates, if at all, solely to the person with whom BofAS has contracted directly and does not extend beyond the delivery of this report (unless otherwise agreed specifically in writing by BofAS). If such recipient uses the services of BofAS in connection with the sale or purchase of a security referred to herein, BofAS may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person. BofAS is and continues to act solely as a broker-dealer in connection with the execution of any transactions, including transactions in any securities referred to herein.

Copyright and General Information:

​Copyright 2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. iQdatabase® is a registered service mark of Bank of America Corporation. This information is prepared for the use of BofA Securities clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of BofA Securities. This document and its content is provided solely for informational purposes and cannot be used for training or developing artificial intelligence (AI) models or as an input in any AI application (collectively, an AI tool). Any attempt to utilize this document or any of its content in connection with an AI tool without explicit written permission from BofA Global Research is strictly prohibited. BofA Global Research information is distributed simultaneously to internal and client websites and other portals by BofA Securities and is not publicly-available material. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained herein (including any investment recommendations, estimates or price targets) without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of BofA Securities.

Materials prepared by BofA Global Research personnel are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BofA Securities, including investment banking personnel. BofA Securities has established information barriers between BofA Global Research and certain business groups. As a result, BofA Securities does not disclose certain client relationships with, or compensation received from, such issuers. To the extent this material discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this material. BofA Global Research personnel's knowledge of legal proceedings in which any BofA Securities entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving issuers mentioned in this material is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BofA Securities in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings.

This information has been prepared independently of any issuer of securities mentioned herein and not in connection with any proposed offering of securities or as agent of any issuer of any securities. None of BofAS any of its affiliates or their research analysts has any authority whatsoever to make any representation or warranty on behalf of the issuer(s). BofA Global Research policy prohibits research personnel from disclosing a recommendation, investment rating, or investment thesis for review by an issuer prior to the publication of a research report containing such rating, recommendation or investment thesis.

Any information relating to sustainability in this material is limited as discussed herein and is not intended to provide a comprehensive view on any sustainability claim with respect to any issuer or security.

Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional.

The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to BofA Securities and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and we do not guarantee its accuracy. This information may contain links to third-party websites. BofA Securities is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this information and is not incorporated by reference. The inclusion of a link does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with BofA Securities. Access to any third-party website is at your own risk, and you should always review the terms and privacy policies at third-party websites before submitting any personal information to them. BofA Securities is not responsible for such terms and privacy policies and expressly disclaims any liability for them.

All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. BofA Securities is under no obligation to update this information and BofA Securities ability to publish information on the subject issuer(s) in the future is subject to applicable quiet periods. You should therefore assume that BofA Securities will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained herein.

Subject to the quiet period applicable under laws of the various jurisdictions in which we distribute research reports and other legal and BofA Securities policy-related restrictions on the publication of research reports, fundamental equity reports are produced on a regular basis as necessary to keep the investment recommendation current.

Certain outstanding reports or investment opinions relating to securities, financial instruments and/or issuers may no longer be current. Always refer to the most recent research report relating to an issuer prior to making an investment decision.

In some cases, an issuer may be classified as Restricted or may be Under Review or Extended Review. In each case, investors should consider any investment opinion relating to such issuer (or its security and/or financial instruments) to be suspended or withdrawn and should not rely on the analyses and investment opinion(s) pertaining to such issuer (or its securities and/or financial instruments) nor should the analyses or opinion(s) be considered a solicitation of any kind. Sales persons and financial advisors affiliated with BofAS or any of its affiliates may not solicit purchases of securities or financial instruments that are Restricted or Under Review and may only solicit securities under Extended Review in accordance with firm policies.

Neither BofA Securities nor any officer or employee of BofA Securities accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

 

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