Global Fund Manager Survey

The Buck Stops Here

Authored By
Analyst Name Michael Hartnett
Analyst Email michael.hartnett@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 1508
Analyst Name Elyas Galou
Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Analyst Email elyas.galou@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofASE (France)
Analyst Phone +33 1 8770 0087
Analyst Name Anya Shelekhin
Analyst Email anya.shelekhin@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 3753
Analyst Name Myung-Jee Jung
Analyst Email myung-jee.jung@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 0389
Report Details
17 June 2025 Investment Strategy Global

Global Fund Manager Survey

The Buck Stops Here

Authored By
Analyst Name Michael Hartnett
Analyst Email michael.hartnett@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 1508
Analyst Name Elyas Galou
Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.
Analyst Email elyas.galou@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofASE (France)
Analyst Phone +33 1 8770 0087
Analyst Name Anya Shelekhin
Analyst Email anya.shelekhin@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 3753
Analyst Name Myung-Jee Jung
Analyst Email myung-jee.jung@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 0389
Report Details
17 June 2025 Investment Strategy Global
Glossary
displayAudiocast is false

 

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.

>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.

Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

 

 

Key takeaways
  • Investor sentiment back to pre-Liberation Day "Goldilocks bull" levels, but not worryingly bullish
  • Investors most UW US dollar in 20 years...rotation to EM, energy, banks, industrials from defensives
  • FMS contrarian trades: long US$, short gold; long US, short EU stocks; long consumer, short banks

BofA Data Analytics


Global Fund Manager Survey

 

Notes to Readers

Source for all tables and charts:
BofA Fund Manager Survey, DataStream

Survey period 6th to 12th June 2025

222 panellists with $587bn AUM participated in the June survey. 190 participants with $523bn AUM responded to the Global FMS questions and 110 participants with $229bn AUM responded to the Regional FMS questions.

How to join the FMS panel

Investors/clients are encouraged to sign up to participate in the Survey. This can be done by contacting Michael Hartnett or your BofA sales representative.

Participants in the survey will continue to receive the full set of monthly results but only for the relevant month in which they participate.

OW: overweight; UW: underweight

AA: asset allocation

 

Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA June Global Fund Manager Survey

     The Bottom Line: investor sentiment recovers to pre-Liberation Day "Goldilocks bull" levels as trade war & recession fears abate; cash level drops to 4.2% (was 4.8% in April) but not worrying low; BofA Bull & Bear Indicator up to 5.4; most extreme view…investor UW in US$ largest in 20 years (Chart 1)…biggest summer pain trade is long the buck.

On Macro & Micro: global growth expectations improve but still weak (net -46%); big reversal in recession odds (net 42% "likely" in April to 36% "unlikely" in June); 66% expect soft landing (8-month high - 16% = no landing, 13% = hard landing); One Big Beautiful Bill to increase US growth say 33% vs 81% to increase US deficit; investors say corporate balance sheets in best health since Dec'15, and most since Jul'13 want companies to return cash to shareholders.

On Returns, Risks, Crowds: best performing asset next 5 years…54% say international stocks, 23% US stocks, 13% gold, 5% bonds; expectation of higher bond yields most since Aug'22; most crowded trades…long gold (41%), long Magnificent 7 (23%), short US$ (20%); #1 tail risk still trade war recession, but down from 80% in April to 47%.

On AA: stocks up, bonds down, commodities highest since May'24; stock rotation to EM (most OW since Aug'23), energy, banks, industrials, out of staples, utilities, healthcare.

Contrarian Trades: 3 most contrarian trades based on FMS sentiment are long US dollar, short gold; long US, short EU stocks; long consumer, short banks.

Chart 1: FMS most underweight the US dollar in 20 years

Net % FMS say they are overweight the US dollar

Chart 1: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Global Fund Manager Survey

Charts of the Month

Chart 2: BofA Global FMS investor sentiment improves to 3-month high

Percentile rank of FMS growth expectations, cash level, and equity allocation

Chart 2: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

The June Global FMS took place between June 6th and 12th, after the latest US-China trade developments but before the surge in geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

Our broadest measure of FMS sentiment, based on cash levels, equity allocation, global growth expectations improved to 3.3 from a low of 2.5 in May, the biggest gain of 2025.

June Global FMS data causes BofA Bull & Bear Indicator to rise to 5.4 (3-month high).

 

Chart 3: FMS cash drops to 3-month low

BofA Global FMS average cash level (%)

Chart 3: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

BofA FMS average cash level declined to 4.2% in June from 4.5% in April.

BofA FMS average cash level is down 0.5ppt in the past 2 months, the largest 2-month decline since Dec'23.

 

Chart 4: Huge reversal in FMS recession expectations in past 2 months

Net % say global recession is likely

Chart 4: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

FMS recession expectations have collapsed in the past 2 months, falling from net 42% of FMS participants saying a global recession was likely in the following 12 months in April, to net 36% now saying it is "unlikely".

 

 

Chart 5: Global growth expectations recover narrowing gap with global stock valuations

Net % expecting stronger global economy and MSCI ACWI (YoY %)

Chart 5: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Expectations for the global economy improved to net 46% expecting a weaker economy (vs record net 82% expecting a weaker economy in April…biggest 2-month improvement since the 2024 US election).

 

 

Chart 6: 61% say "soft landing," 26% "hard landing," 6% "no landing"

What is the most likely outcome for the global economy in the next 12 months?

Chart 6: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

FMS conviction that a global economic "soft landing" is the most likely outcome for the global macro rose this month rose to the highest level since Oct'24 (66%, up from 37% in April).

"Hard landing" expectations have retreated to 13% (from 49% in April).

"No landing" expectations are rising (16%, up from 3% in April).

 

Chart 7: The average US tariff rate expected at 13%

What do you think will be the final tariff rate that the US imposes on the Rest of World?

Chart 7: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Asked on their expectation for the final tariff rate the US would impose on all imports from trading partners, 77% anticipated a duty rate of lower than 82%, and only 1% expect it above 30%.

Altogether, the weighted average US tariff rate is expected at 13%.

 

Chart 8: Big Beautiful Bill to have little impact on economic growth…

Do you believe US tax cuts will boost US growth in 2H-25?

Chart 8: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Focusing now on US fiscal/tax policy with the "Big Beautiful Bill" ("BBB") currently discussed by lawmakers…

Asked about the impact of the "BBB" in H2'25 on GDP growth…59% of FMS investors expect no boost to economic activity in the next 6 months.

Conversely, 1/3 of FMS participants view the Bill Beautiful Bill as a boon to GDP growth in H2'25.

 

 

Chart 9: …but will very likely increase the US government budget deficit

Do you believe that US tax cuts in H2'25 will…

Chart 9: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

And when asked about the impact of the "BBB" in H2'25 on the US government budget balance…81% of FMS investors see the deficit - already near 7% of US GDP - rising, up from 75% last month (likely consequence of the Senate provisions).

Note 14% see the "BBB" paying for itself.

 

 

Chart 10: Fiscal policy stance keeping 'floor' on long-dated yields

Net % thing global fiscal policy 'too stimulative' vs US Treasury 30-year yield

Chart 10: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

The past 3 months have been dominated by the prospects of further fiscal support in the US and Europe (i.e. Germany), lifting long-dated government bond yields across advanced economies.

FMS investors' perception of easy global fiscal policy hit a 7-month high (net 36% say that global fiscal policy is "too stimulative").

Note FMS perception of fiscal policy stance turned restrictive in April for the 1st time since Dec'20.

 

 

Chart 11: FMS investors view corporate balance sheets in best health since March 2016

Net % say companies are 'overleveraged'

Chart 11: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

FMS investors say corporations are in their best financial health since Dec'15, with a net 3% saying companies are "underleveraged."

Note that FMS investors viewed company balance sheets as "overleveraged" continuously between Apr'16 and May'25.

 

Chart 12: FMS desire for companies to return cash to shareholders at 12-year high

Net % want companies to return cash to shareholders

Chart 12: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Asked about which corporate strategy CFOs should prioritize in the next 12 months, 32% of FMS investors expressed desire for cash to be returned to shareholders (via buybacks, dividend payments, cash- or debt-financed M&A), the highest percent since Jul'13.

Note that 29% of FMS participants would like CFOs to first improve balance sheets, while 27% would rather have management increase capital expenditures.

 

Chart 13: FMS long-term rate expectations at near 3-year high

Net % FMS expecting higher bond yields

Chart 13: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

On rates outlook, net 21% of FMS investors expect higher bond yields (i.e. long-term interest rates) in the next 12 months, highest % since Aug'22.

 

Chart 14: Best performing asset next 5 years? FMS investors say "international stocks"

What do you think the best performing asset in the next 5 years will be?

Chart 14: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

On FMS long-term return expectations across asset classes, a net majority expect international stocks to be the best performing asset over the next 5 years.

Less than ¼ think US assets will continue to dominate ranked returns, and just 5% anticipate bonds to perform best.

 

Chart 15: Trade war triggering global recession still seen as biggest 'tail risk'

What do you consider the biggest 'tail risk'?

Chart 15: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Trade war triggering a recession remains the biggest 'tail risk' according to 47% of FMS investors (vs 80% in April).

Fed rate hikes continue to be seen as the 2nd biggest 'tail risk' (17%), while 16% say the biggest tail risk is a credit event caused by rising bond yields.

 

Chart 16: "Long gold" remains the most crowded trade for the 3rd month in a row

What do you think is currently the most crowded trade?

Chart 16: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

"Long gold" is the most crowded trade for the third month running (per 41% of investors), confirming that the 24-month streak for "long Magnificent 7" (now 23%) as most crowded trade has come to an end.

 

Chart 17: June rotation to EM, stocks, energy & out of cash, defensives, EUR

Monthly change in FMS investor positioning

Chart 17: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

This chart shows June's monthly changes in FMS investor allocation.

Investors increased allocation to EM & global equities, energy and bank stocks…

… and reduced allocation to the Euro, utility stocks, and cash.

 

 

Chart 18: FMS net OW Eurozone, EM, banks & UW US equities, US dollar, energy

FMS absolute positioning (net % overweight)

Chart 18: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

This chart shows absolute FMS investor positioning (net % overweight).

In June, investors are most overweight Eurozone, EM, and banks vs most underweight US stocks, the US dollar, and energy.

 

 

Chart 19: Relative to history FMS OW the Euro, bonds, utilities vs UW US$, energy, US stocks

FMS positioning vs history (z-score)

Chart 19: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

This chart shows FMS investor positioning relative to the average long-term positioning (past ~20 years).

Relative to history, investors are overweight the Euro, bonds, & utilities…

…and are underweight the US dollar, energy, & US stocks.

 

 

Chart 20: Evolution of Global FMS "biggest tail risk"

History of Global FMS "biggest tail risk" answers

Chart 20: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

  • This chart shows the full history of the biggest "tail risk" for markets from BofA's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey.
  • The dominant concerns of investors since 2011 have been Eurozone debt, Chinese growth, populism, quantitative tightening & trade wars, global coronavirus, inflation, & central bank rate hikes; now geopolitics, trade war 2.0 and recession.
  • The top "tail risk" is "trade war triggers global recession" at 47%.

Chart 21: Evolution of Global FMS "most crowded trade"

History of Global FMS "most crowded trade" answers

Chart 21: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

  • This chart shows the full history of the most "crowded trade" according to BofA's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey.
  • The market leadership has been relatively narrow since 2013, shifting from high yielding debt; long US$; long Quality; long Tech; long Emerging Markets; long US Treasuries, long US tech & growth stocks, long Bitcoin, lo ng commodities, long tech, long commodities, long US dollar, long Magnificent Seven, and long gold.
  • Long Gold is considered the most crowded trade (per 41% of investors) followed by #2 long Magnificent 7 (23%), and #3 short US dollar (20%).

 

 

BofA Global FMS Rules & Tools

The Global FMS Rules & Tools are designed to help investors determine risk appetite, rotation opportunities, and tactical entry points.

Table 1: BofA Global FMS Cash Rule and Bull & Bear Indicator

Current reading of BofA Global FMS Cash Rule and Bull & Bear Indicator

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Category

Current reading

Current signal

BofA Global FMS Cash Rule

Contrarian

4.2%

Neutral

Buy global equities when cash at or above 5.0%; sell when cash at or below 4.0%

 

 

 

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

Contrarian

5.4

Neutral

Buy global equities when the indicator falls below 2.0; sell when it rises above 8.0

 

 

 

Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Disclaimer: The indicators identified as BofA Global FMS Cash Rule and BofA Bull & Bear Indicator above are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark.

 

For full details please see: Global Investment Strategy: The BofA Global FMS Rules & Tools, 12 November 2020.

 

Investors on the Macro

 

Chart 22: Net % of FMS investors who see a stronger global economy in next 12 months

Net % of FMS investors expecting stronger economy

 

On the macro…

June FMS showed net 46% of investors expecting a weaker economy in the next 12 months (+13ppt MoM improvement from net 59% in May).

Global growth expectations have jumped 36ppt since the April low.

Chart 22: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 23: How FMS investors would describe the global economy over the next 12 months

FMS expectations for the global economy over the next 12 months?

 

75% of FMS investors say they expect "stagflation" (vs 81% in April),

12% say "stagnation" (below-trend growth & below-trend inflation),

5% say "boom" (above-trend growth & above-trend inflation), and

3% say "goldilocks" (above-trend growth & below-trend inflation).

 

Chart 23: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 24: Net % of FMS investors that think global CPI (in YoY terms) will be higher

Net % of FMS investors expecting higher inflation

 

Net 13% expect global CPI to be higher in 12 months' time, down 17ppt MoM.

FMS inflation expectations have dropped 44ppt since April…the biggest 2-month decline since May'22.

Chart 24: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Investor Risk Appetite

Chart 25: Expectations for investment performance over the next 12 months

Over the next 12 months, net % FMS investors think…

 

Per June FMS …

Net 71% say high-quality will outperform low-quality earnings.

Net 48% say large cap will outperform small cap stocks.

Net 23% say investment grade bonds will outperform high yield (4-month low).

Net 21% say high-momentum will outperform (vs net 8% said low-momentum would outperform in May).

Chart 25: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 26: FMS investors taking higher than normal risk levels

What level of risk do you think you're currently taking relative to your benchmark?

Chart 26: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Net 28% of FMS investors are taking lower than normal risk levels.

Risk tolerance has improved 18ppt since April, biggest 2-month improvement since Mar'24.

 

Chart 27: FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator eases to 3.2

FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator vs S&P 500 YoY %

 

FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator falls from 4.4 to 3.2.

The FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator is intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. This indicator was not created to act as a benchmark.

More info and methodology on the FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator can be found in the Nov'22 Global FMS.

Chart 27: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 28: FMS rating of potential risks to Financial Market Stability

Components of the FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Indicator

Chart 28: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

The chart shows the individual z-scores of each response to how FMS investors rated potential risks to financial market stability since '07.

5 out of 7 underlying risk components declined in June: emerging market, credit, business cycle, protectionist, and geopolitical risks.

 

 

 

Investors on EPS & Leverage

Chart 29: Net % of FMS investors that think global corporate profit growth will improve

Net % of FMS investors saying global profits will improve

 

On corporates and profits…

Net 26% of FMS investors expect global profits to deteriorate in the next 12 months.

Profit expectations have jumped 54ppt since April…biggest 2-month improvement since Jun'20.

Chart 29: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 30: What would you most like to see companies do with cash flow?

What FMS investors would most like to see companies do with cash flow

 

Asked what companies should do with cash flow… 32% said return cash to shareholders (highest since Jul'13), while 29% said improve balance sheets (lowest since Feb'22) and 27% said increase capital spending.

 

Chart 30: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

FMS Asset Allocation

Chart 31: Net % AA Say they are overweight Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight equities

 

On asset allocation…FMS equity allocation improved to net 2% underweight (from net 13% UW), a 3-month high.

Current allocation is 1.0 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 31: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 32: Net % AA Say they are overweight Bonds

Net% of FMS investors overweight bonds

 

FMS bond allocation is net 5% underweight (vs net 1% UW a month ago).

Current allocation is 1.5 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 32: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 33: Net % AA Say they are overweight Cash

Net% of FMS investors overweight cash

 

FMS cash allocation fell 10ppt MoM to net 16% overweight..

Current allocation is 0.4 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 33: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 34: Net % AA Say they are overweight Real Estate

Net% of FMS investors overweight Real Estate

 

FMS real estate allocation is net 12% underweight (vs. net 8% UW a month ago).

Real estate allocation is at a 7-month low.

Current allocation is 0.7 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 34: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 35: Net % AA Say they are overweight Commodities

Net% of FMS investors overweight commodities

 

FMS commodities allocation is net 9% overweight (vs net 2% OW a month ago).

Real estate allocation is at the highest since May'24.

Current allocation is 0.6 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 35: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 36: Gold Valuation and Gold Price ($/oz)

Net% of FMS investors saying gold overvalued

 

Net 31% of FMS investors say gold is overvalued…down from a record-high 45% a month ago.

Chart 36: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

Currencies extremes

Chart 37: USD Valuation and Trade weighted index

Net% of FMS investors saying USD overvalued

 

On currencies…

Net 61% of FMS investors say US$ is overvalued…from net 57% last month.

Current valuation is 1.5 stdev above the long-term average.

 

Chart 37: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 38: EUR valuation and Trade weighted index

Net% of FMS investors saying EUR overvalued

 

Net 38% of FMS investors say EUR is undervalued… vs. 22% said overvalued a month ago (biggest monthly rise since Nov'23).

Current valuation is 1.5 stdev below the long-term average.

 

Chart 38: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 39: GBP valuation and Trade weighted index

Net % of FMS investors saying GBP overvalued

 

Net 6% of FMS investors think GBP is undervalued… vs. net 13% a month ago.

Current valuation is 0.4 stdev below the long-term average.

 

Chart 39: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Investor Regional Equity Allocation

Chart 40: Net % AA Say they are overweight US Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight US equities

 

On regional equity allocation…

FMS investors are net 36% underweight US equities (vs net 38% a month ago).

Current allocation is 1.7 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 40: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 41: Net % AA Say they are overweight Eurozone Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight EU equities

 

FMS investors are 34% OW Eurozone equities (vs net 35% OW a month ago).

Current allocation is 0.8 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 41: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 42: Net % AA Say they are overweight EM Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight EM equities

 

FMS investors are net 28% overweight EM equities (from net 11%)…highest allocation since Aug'23.

Current allocation is 0.4 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 42: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 43: Net % AA Say they are overweight Japanese Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight Japanese equities

 

FMS investors are net 6% underweight Japanese equities (from net 7% UW).

Current allocation is 0.5 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 43: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 44: Net % AA Say they are overweight UK Equities

Net% of FMS investors overweight UK equities

 

FMS investors are net 4% underweight (unchanged).

Current allocation is 0.9 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 44: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

Investor Sector Allocation

Chart 45: Global Sector Sentiment

Net % overweight (% saying overweight - % saying underweight)

 

June saw FMS investors increasing allocation to energy, banks, telecom, and industrials, and reducing allocation to utilities, staples, and healthcare.

FMS investors are the most (net) overweight financials, healthcare, and telecom, and most (net) underweight energy, consumer discretionary, and materials.

Chart 45: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 46: Global Banks

Net % of FMS investors overweight banks

 

FMS investors are net 25% overweight banks, up 9ppt MoM.

Current reading is 1.3 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 46: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 47: Global Technology

Net % of FMS investors overweight technology

 

FMS investors are net 1% underweight technology (allocation fell -1ppt MoM).

Current reading is 1.3 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 47: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 48: Global Utilities

Net % of FMS investors overweight utilities

 

FMS investors are net 6% underweight utilities, -10ppt MoM to lowest allocation in 5 months.

Current reading is 1.5 stdev above its long-term average.

Chart 48: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 49: Global Consumer Staples

Net % of FMS investors overweight consumer staples

 

FMS investors are net 6% underweight staples, -8ppt MoM to lowest allocation in 5 months.

Current reading is 0.2 stdev below its long-term average.

 

Chart 49: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 50: Global Industrials

Net % of FMS investors overweight industrials

 

FMS investors are net 4% overweight industrials, up 8ppt MoM to 3-month high.

Current reading is 0.3 stdev below its long-term average.

 

Chart 50: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Chart 51: Global Healthcare

Net% of FMS investors overweight healthcare

 

FMS investors are net 15% overweight healthcare, -3ppt MoM to lowest allocation in 5 months.

Allocation to healthcare has been consistently overweight since Jan'18.

Current reading is 0.5 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 51: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 52: Global Materials

Net% of FMS investors overweight materials

 

FMS investors are net 15% underweight materials (from net 19% UW).

Current reading is 0.9 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 52: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

Chart 53: Global Energy

Net% of FMS investors overweight energy

 

FMS investors are net 26% underweight energy.

Energy allocation is up from a record-low allocation of net 35% UW last month.

Current reading is 1.8 stdev below its long-term average.

Chart 53: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, Datastream

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 Global survey demographics data

Table 2: Position / Institution / Approach to Global Equity Strategy

Position / Institution / Approach to Global Equity Strategy

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

Jun-25

May-25

Apr-25

Structure of the panel - by position

Chief Investment Officer

33

35

30

Asset Allocator / Strategist / Economist

68

60

56

Portfolio Manager

81

73

72

Other

8

6

6

 

 

 

Structure of the Panel - by expertise

Global Specialists Only

112

99

89

Regional Specialists with a Global View

78

75

75

Total # of Respondents to Global Questions

190

174

164

 

 

 

 Which of the Following Best Describes the Type of Money You are Running?

 

 

 

Institutional funds (e.g. pension funds / insurance companies)

62

52

51

Hedge funds / proprietary trading desks

17

17

18

Mutual funds / unit trusts / investment trusts

78

80

71

None of the above

33

25

24

 

 

 

 What Do You Estimate to be the Total Current Value of Assets Under Your Direct Control?

 

 

 

Up to $250mn

29

28

25

Around $500mn

19

18

18

Around $1bn

31

34

31

Around $2.5bn

22

18

18

Around $5bn

17

14

15

Around $7.5bn

10

7

8

Around $10bn or more

26

24

16

No funds under my direct control

36

31

33

Total (USD bn)

523

458

386

 

 

 

 What best describes your investment time horizon at this moment?

 

 

 

3 months or less

57

61

74

6 months

58

40

24

9 months

15

17

11

12 months or more

57

53

52

Weighted average

7.2

7.1

6.8

Don't know

3

3

3

Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

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