Rates Technical Advantage

A patient summer of buying dips

Authored By
Analyst Name Paul Ciana, CMT
Analyst Email paul.ciana@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Technical Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 743 7014
Report Details
28 May 2024 FICC Technical Strategy Global Markets

Rates Technical Advantage

A patient summer of buying dips

Authored By
Analyst Name Paul Ciana, CMT
Analyst Email paul.ciana@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Technical Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 743 7014
Report Details
28 May 2024 FICC Technical Strategy Global Markets
Glossary
displayAudiocast is false

 

Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

 

 

Key takeaways
  • Short term: US yields to bounce back in June. 2Y & 30Y double bottomed. 5Y & 10Y on breakout watch. MACD crosses favor this.
  • Medium term: We still view 1H24 as a correction of 4Q23 that is nearing an end. Post Memorial Day, we prefer buying the dips.
  • Macro choppy: USUR uptrend at two-year highs (bullish USTs), but BCOM formed a head and shoulders base (bearish USTs).

Rates Technical Advantage

 

BofA Global Research Reports

Title: Subtitle

Primary Author

Date Published

Rates Technical Advantage: The buy zones in Q2

 

Paul Ciana, CMT

08 May 2024

Rates Technical Advantage: US 10Y reached target, now what?

 

Paul Ciana, CMT

17 April 2024

Technical Advantage: Inflation has a job to do in Q2

 

Paul Ciana, CMT

08 April 2024

Technicals Explained: In 2024, get to know technical strategy

Paul Ciana, CMT

05 January 2024

 

2/5/10/30Y = 2-/5-/10-/30-year

BCOM = Bloomberg commodities index

d = day

NFP = Non-Farm Payrolls

RSI = Relative Strength Index

SMA = Simple Moving Average

 

UST = US Treasury

US U-Rate = US unemployment rate

 

 

Rates Technical Advantage

View: A patient summer of buying dips

Our base-case year ahead view remains: In 2024 the US bond market is in a cyclical bull trend within a secular bear. We called for a 1Q24 rise in yields and deemed it counter-trend. As chart patterns evolved in Q1 we saw how yields could extend upside in Q2. On April 17 (see our Rates Technical Advantage report), we thought it reasonable to expect the 10Y yield to peak in the 4.70-5.02% area by the Memorial Day holiday. On April 25-26, the 10Y yield reached 4.74%. The ensuing suite of April US data left little time to get long, as a 43bp decline followed. Our thought process looking ahead to the rest of Q2 and mainly 2H24 is shifting further toward buying dips.  Technical academia still suggests medium-term wave (B) up in the 10Y yield during 1H24 is more behind us than left in front and wave (C) down begins this summer/fall (see Chart 6). While our ideal buy zones are currently out of reach (see our May 8th report, Buy zones in Q2), we see some signals and patterns in the daily charts that indicate yields bouncing back in June.

Short term: MACDs and patterns say yields bounce back

Our daily charts of US 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30Y yields show the MACD indicator crossing up in favor of yields bouncing back in June. The daily chart of 2- and 30Y yields already double bottomed and target 5.10% and 4.72%. We are watching to see if the 5Y and 10Y yield charts break out or form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders base to also signal a June bounce.

Medium term: 1H24 higher yields, 2H24 lower yields

Our view for a 1H24 rise in yields is nearing an end. The weekly charts of US 2-, 5-, 10- and 30Y yields all still read as if the 1H24 is a correction of the 4Q23 decline and to be long USTs the closer we get to the 2H24. The April-May yield declines stopped at old breakout levels (yields supported) as the daily charts show potential for a June rebound. This means that we will probably see better levels to buy USTs in June-July than right now.

Five things the US yield charts say

  1. Upside risk for US 2Y Yield. A small double bottom targets 5.05-5.10% in June. In the weekly chart, we still cannot rule out a retest of cycle highs +/- 5.25%.
  2. US 10Y Yield: Base case is to be long for this summer/fall. We prefer to nibble at 4.6%, buy 4.75%, and "load the boat" if above 4.85%.
  3. US 10Y Seasonals: Since 1963, the seasonal peak for 10Y yield is May 13-20 (behind us). When the 10Y yield has been up in January, the peak has been +/- August 9 (patience?).
  4. US 5-, 10-, and 30Y yield weekly chart uptrends YTD are still supported by trend lines and base patterns. We may see better levels to buy in June-July than now.
  5. Macro mismatch: The US U-Rate has made three higher highs and higher lows and a two-year new high to favor buying UST dips. However, the BCOM index has a head and shoulders base and golden cross signal, implying a commodities rally. This may cause inflation to stick longer and supports yields this summer.
 

Rates Technical Advantage

Appendix: US Yield Charts

 US 2Y Yield

US 2Y Yield: A small double bottom and MACD cross says higher to 5.05-5.10%

  Chart 1:  US 2Y Yield - Daily Chart

A small double bottom pattern implies upside to 5.04% (YTD high) with full measured target of 5.10%. MACD having crossed up supports this. Ideally yield stays above the rising 50d SMA now at 4.82%.

Yield resistance: 5.04%, 5.11%, 5.25%, 5.35%

Yield support: 4.90%, 4.82%, 4.76%, 4.70%, 4.55%

<_bbchartsh_MEQ5RUFCMDQ5M0YzNDFCQk>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

US 2Y Yield: Base case has been a wedge top and modest new high, but...

Our base case has viewed the weekly chart below as a rising wedge top pattern. This wedge pattern and the cup and handle base pattern formed over the last few months suggested that a modest new cycle high was possible, such as +/- 5.35%. Post April NFP, yield is trading in a 4.75-5.00% range. By retesting and holding above 4.75%, potential for this upside remains (small double bottom in the daily chart above). A weekly close above 5% would increase this potential again because it would break through the black trend line.

Post April data, US treasuries rallied sharply, leading us to consider additional yield top scenarios. We present two alternative technical top scenarios that we continue to track. A second scenario is that a triangle pattern forms in line with a "higher for longer" and "lower vol" market narrative. A third scenario has been the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top forming. The break above 4.75%, signaling a cup and handle pattern, reduced this potential, while the downturn after US NFP data modestly revived it. Yield would have to fall further in May-June to help this scenario develop.

  Chart 2:  US 2Y yield - Weekly Chart

How does 2Y yield top? 1) A wedge top (rising red lines) implies modest new cycle high, then lower lows. 2) A triangle pattern (black lines) implies a higher for longer narrowing range with vol declining. 3) A right shoulder of a head and shoulders top if May data is soft could cause USTs to rally.

<_bbchartsh_ODU5RkQyOUE2NkNCNDFBOD>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

US 5Y Yield: MACD crossing up as yield breaks to new highs

Chart 3: US 5Y Yield - Daily Chart

US 5Y yield is testing the top of a new range at 4.55%. We are watching for a breakout to confirm the MACD signal, which together suggest that yields can bounce back in/into June.

Yield resistance: 4.56%, 4.72%, 4.84%, 4.98%
Yield support: 4.35%, 4.22%, 4.15%, 4%

<_bbchartsh_MjM2MDI3REI0RjA3NDQ0QT>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

US 5Y Yield: Cup and handle base holds, (B) near end in 4.75-4.98% area

  Chart 4:  US 5Y yield - Weekly Chart

Wave (B) higher has been under way. A cup and handle base pattern suggested that the 5Y yield rises to 4.75% (reached) and possibly back to the highs at 4.98% to complete wave (B) up and then (C) down into/in 2025 follows. Any pushback to or above 4.75% (Q2 highs thus far) looks like a buying opportunity as wave (B) ends and (C) down can begin.

<_bbchartsh_QjExMDIxQ0YxNjgxNEVBOE>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 US 10Y Yield

US 10Y Yield: MACD crossing up, potential for breakout or right shoulder of a head and shoulders base

  Chart 5:  US 10Y Yield - Daily Chart

US 10Y yield has formed a new range from 4.31-4.53%. A breakout higher would suggest a rise back to the 4.70s. There would be some potential for a right shoulder of a head and shoulders base to form. This would require a month-end dip in yield, followed by hotter data in June to form the base and push yield higher. Ideally, yield stays above 4.40% while making a right shoulder.

Yield resistance: 4.56%, 4.72%, 4.84%, 4.98%
Yield support: 4.35%, 4.22%, 4.15%, 4%

<_bbchartsh_RjA3MDU1ODRDNjZENDVDRk>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg, DeMark Analytics

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

  

US 10Y Yield: Wave (B) up near an end in the 4.70-5.02% area

We have continued to trend follow wave (B) up, which represents a counter-trend correction of wave (A) down in 4Q23. Technicals on the daily chart had suggested upside potential to 4.70% and that yield peaks in the 4.70-5.02% area, possibly by Memorial Day. This target was reached during the April 25-26 sessions, with 10Y yield trading up to 4.74%. But it did not last for long, as yields corrected lower after US labor market data to test and hold support at a prior breakout level. From this bigger picture, wave (B) up is either over or has one more push higher left in Q2, which we would look to buy.

When forming a cycle top, in the past, the 10Y yield has had some tendency to retest the prior high to form a double top pattern. A top pattern for a cycle turn is more ideal than not. This means that there is risk of a rise closer to 5% before a turn down in yield begins. That turn lower would represent wave (C) down into YE24-1H25, in our wave count view.

A risk to our base case wave count: A repeat of 2H22-1H23, which means that wave (5) up to 5.50% has not occurred yet and this (A)(B) is part of a wave (4) triangle. For an introduction to Elliott wave analysis, see the report, Technicals Explained: Get to know technical strategy January 2024.

  Chart 6:  US 10Y yield - weekly Chart

Wave (B) up near an end in the 4.70-5.02% area and is a place to buy. After this, we begin looking for wave (C) down into YE24 and 1H25 provided that an impulsive catalyst does not push yield through 5%, resulting in a shift to an alternate wave count.

<_bbchartsh_ODc4NzRFQjM1QUVGNEJCN0>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 US 10Y Seasonals

One curve says peak in May, another August = Buy summer dips

  • The average trend of the US 10Y yield since 1963 is up into May, it tops in May-August, and then it declines into year-end (dark blue line in Exhibit 1).
  • The average trend of the US 10Y yield since 1963 when yield was up in January (as in 2024) is higher through August-September and lower through year-end (light blue line in Exhibit 1).
  • The average trend of the US 10Y yield since 1963 when yield rose in January and it was the fourth year of a US presidential cycle saw US yield impulsively higher in Q1, then it topped and dropped in Q2, and it traded choppy/sideways through year-end. Year 4s with an up January were 1964, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1992, 1996, and 2000 (see orange line in Exhibit 1)
  • The red line in Exhibit 1 below graphs the YTD net change in US 10Y yield in 2024, normalized to the other curves. The rise in yield so far this year has been impulsively higher, exceeding all average comparisons. All lines suggest that the trend gets choppy in May.

This section is an update to our seasonal and cycle analysis discussed in the report, Rates Technical Advantage: So goes January and so goes US 10Y yield? 07 February 2024.

 

  Exhibit 1:  US 10Y yield average trend analysis since 1963

The average trend of 10Y yield is up into May and down into year-end. When January is up, as this year was, the average trend is up more and longer into August-September and then lower in Q4. When January has been up in year 4, yield has risen sharply in January-April, declined, and traded choppy through year-end.

Exhibit 1: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

US 30Y Yield: Uptrend still supported, double bottom forming, MACD crossing

Chart 7: US 30Y yield - Daily Chart

The decline in US 30Y yield tested and held rising support lines, the 200d SMA, and old breakout level of 4.50%. A double bottom has been forming, which suggests that yields bounce back in June to, for example, 4.75%. The MACD is approaching a cross up, which would support this move. Ideally, yield stays above 4.50%.

<_bbchartsh_Q0U3MjJERUY5M0JDNEMzRT>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

US 30Y Yield: Yield likely peaks in the 4.85-5.06% area

Chart 8: US 30Y yield - Weekly Chart

An ascending triangle base suggested that the US 30Y yield could rise to 4.85% (reached) and possibly 5.06% while remaining above 4.50% on a weekly closing basis. We think that wave (B) will peak in in the 4.85-5.06% area with wave (C) down into year-end.

<_bbchartsh_NEUxMzc3NTJGMDdDNEQ3Qk>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 US U-Rate

Three higher highs and higher lows = Uptrend

Exhibit 2: US unemployment rate

A double bottom in 2023 suggested an uptrend in 2024-2025. A new two-year high was made in February and retested in April, when the U-Rate reached 3.9%. Since the double bottom at 3.4%, a series of three higher highs and higher lows has occurred. Higher highs and lows is the technical definition of an uptrend.

<_bbchartsh_MTk3NEIxOTE2N0VCNEJDRE>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 BCOM

Testing top of range, golden cross tailwind?

Exhibit 3: Bloomberg Commodities Index (BCOM) - Daily chart

This basket of commodities is up as much as 12.97% this year and testing trend line resistance in the 108s. In May, a head and shoulders bottom was confirmed, and a golden cross signal occurred (50d SMA crossed above the 200d SMA). Are commodities poised for a breakout higher this summer that supports yields?

<_bbchartsh_NjUyRkY2QTI3MEEwNDA0Nz>

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Chart Alpha

Exhibit 4: Open technical trades and cross strategy alpha trades, including technicals

Open trades

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

  Report

  Trade

Entry / revise date

Entry Level

Option expiry

Spot target 1

Spot target 2

Spot target 3

Spot stop

Rationale / time horizon

Risks

FX Alpha

Buy a 25D 3m GBP/USD call

3/8/2024

spot ref: 1.28. Cost = 0.51% GBP

6/8/2024

1.3000

1.3140

-

-

Cup and handle base, DXY breakdown, bullish GBP seasonals late March through April

Continuation of US growth momentum supporting USD.

   Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

Exhibit 5: Closed technical trades and cross strategy alpha trades including technicals

Closed trades

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 Report

Trade description

Entry date

Entry level

Spot target 1

Spot target 2

Spot target 3

Stop

 Revise / close date

Level closed

EM Alpha

Short USDZAR

11/15/2023

18.15

17.6

17.25

-

18.55

5/13/2024

18.06 (Spot 18.36 less 1.6% carry)

Rates Alpha

Buy 10y bunds vs USTs

2/13/2024

182bps

200bps (reached)

225bps

-

Raise to 188

5/9/2024

200bps

FX Alpha

Buy 3m EUR/JPY put spread

1/26/2024

0.6663% EUR (strikes 158.00, 155.00, spot ref 160.31, vol refs 8.709, 8.965

158

155

-

-

25-Apr

0

Technical Advantage

Buy BRL/CLP (raise stop to 192)

2/28/2024

190.75

200 (reached)

215

-

-

3/13/2024

192

Technical Advantage

Buy BRL/CLP (raise stop to 192)

2/2/2024

190.75

200 (reached)

215

-

190

2/28/2024

196.65

Technical Advantage

Buy USDSEK

2/2/2024

10.49

-

10.65

10.9

-

2/27/2024

10.30

Global Macro Year Ahead

US 5s30s steepener

1/23/2024

15

35

55

80

15

2/2/2024

24.00

Global Macro Year Ahead

US 5s30s steepener, raise stop to 15

11/19/2023

15

35 (reached)

55

80

0

1/23/2024

32.00

2024 FICC Technical Advantage

Buy USDKRW +1m NDF

12/1/2023

1293

1315

1327

1340

1270

1/3/2024

1308

2024 FICC Technical Advantage

Short MXN/CLP

12/1/2023

49.85

48.25

47.5

46.1

52.2

12/22/2023

52.20

Global Macro Year Ahead

Short GBPAUD via 3m 1.90-1.86 GBP/AUD put spread

11/19/2023

s/r 1.9192

1.86

1.84

-

-

1/3/2024

1.2315% GBP (s/r 1.8762, vol ref 7.354 / 6.921)

Global Macro Year Ahead

Sell EUR/NOK via 6m risk reversal

11/19/2023

s/r 11.8623 vol refs: 8.929 and 9.108).

11.35

11.22

11.10

-

1/3/2024

Received 0.7307% EUR

EM Alpha

Buy EURZAR

10/2/2023

20.15

20.75

-

-

19.60

11/1/2023

19.60

FX Alpha

Buy CADMXN

10/23/2023

13.3338

14.00

-

-

13.00

10/31/2023

13.00

FX Alpha

Buy EURSEK 3m zero-cost collar spot ref 11.5456

10/13/2023

3m 11.8380 call for 0.5676% EUR, vol 7.394%; sell 3m 11.3143, vol 6.701%, zero-cost

11.84

-

-

-

10/30/2023

1.12%

FX Alpha

Buy GBPAUD 6m put seagull

9/8/2023

0.3827% GBP (long 6m put spread, 1.94 / 1.90

1.94

1.90

-

2.05

9/22/2023

1.2341% GBP

FX Technical Advantage

Short USDCAD

8/29/2023

1.3570

1.3497

1.346

1.335

1.3725

9/13/2023

1.3550

Commodities Technical Advantage

Buy CTZ3

9/5/2023

89.0600

94.60

96.5

100

86.3

9/7/2023

86..30

FX Alpha

Sell 2m 25-delta OTM EUR/GBP put

6/24/2023

0.31% EUR (strike ref: 0.8472, spot ref: 0.8592, vol ref: 5.584)

24-Aug-23

-

-

-

8/3/2023

Spot ref 0.86470, vol ref :4.214)

FX Alpha

Buy USDSEK via 3m collar (spot ref is 10.2724)

7/19/2023

Buy 3m 10.73 call for 0.7795% USD (vol ref: 12.296%) and sell 3m 9.8960 put for the same price (vol ref: 10.202%).

10.5

10.7

-

9.896

8/1/2023

1.3316% USD with spot ref 10.6109

Technical Advantage

Buy USDMXN

6/27/2023

17.10

17.50

18.00

-

16.90

7/12/2023

16.90

FX Technical Advantage

Short GBPUSD

4/25/2023

1.2420

1.2367

1.223

1.216

1.255

4/28/2023

1.255

FX Alpha

Buy 3m USDSEK call spread

1/20/2023

1.4689% USD strikes 10.2466 & 10.70, spot ref 10.2971, vol refs 12.752/13.307)

10.25

10.5

10.7

-

3/7/2023

.82% USD (spot ref 10.7008, vol refs 12.18/11.943)

Rates Technical Advantage

5s30s steepener

2/12/2023

-12

0

10

20

-25

2/24/2023

-25

Rates Technical Advantage

Short US 10Y

1/22/2023

3.48%

3.70%

3.82%

3.90%

3.30%

2/17/2023

3.82%

2023 FICC Technical Views

Short USDCAD via 6m 1.33/1.30 put spread

12/2/2022

65 USD pips (Spot ref: 1.3489, vol: 7.668%/8.035%)

1.33

1.319

1.30

-

2/1/2023

74.53 USD pips (spot ref: 1.33, vol: 6.893% / 7.237%)

EM Alpha

Long USDZAR

1/19/2023

17.23

-

17.46

17.75

17.86

2/1/2023

17.40

Global Rates, FX, EM 2023 Year Ahead

Short 10Y UST

11/20/2022

3.75%

3.60%

4.00%

4.25%

3.40%

1/18/2023

3.40%

FX Technical Advantage

Buy USD/CLP

11/20/2022

925

898

980

1000

865

12/12/2022

865

FX Technical Advantage

Buy DXY dip

9/12/2022

108.33

110.35

112.1

115

105

11/4/2022

110.87

Chart Alpha

Buy USD/ZAR

11/15/2022

17.30

18.00

18.50

-

<16.90

12/1/2022

17.90

Technical Advantage

Sell gold's bounce

10/3/2022

1702.00

1615.00

1560.00

1440.00

1740

11/10/2022

1760

Rates Technical Advantage

Short 10Y > 3.1%

8/31/2022

3.16%

3.38%

3.50%

3.96%

< 2.95%

10/11/2022

3.94%

Technical Advantage

Buy USDKRW

6/12/2022

1279.04

1321

1374

1400

1210

10/6/2022

1406

Commodities Technical Advantage

Buy USDCLP breakout

6/24/2022

917

920

945

985

872.75

07/15.2022

985.00

Commodities Technical Advantage

Sell HG1 breakdown

6/22/2022

394.4

350

335

314

421.9

7/15/2022

323.40

Commodities Technical Advantage

Buy crude oil

6/2/2022

116.87

130.3

140

-

111.2

6/17/2022

109.56

Chart Alpha

Buy Euro

5/4/2022

1.0610

1.0800

1.0850

-

-

5/12/2022

1.0470

               Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Options Risk Statement

Potential Risk at Expiry & Options Limited Duration Risk

Unlike owning or shorting a stock, employing any listed options strategy is by definition governed by a finite duration. The most severe risks associated with general options trading are total loss of capital invested and delivery/assignment risk... all of which can occur in a short period.

Investor suitability

The use of standardized options and other related derivatives instruments are considered unsuitable for many investors. Investors considering such strategies are encouraged to become familiar with the "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" (an OCC authored white paper on options risks). U.S. investors should consult with a FINRA Registered Options Principal.

For detailed information regarding risks involved with investing in listed options: http://www.theocc.com/about/publications/character-risks.jsp

 

 

I, Paul Ciana, CMT, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report.

 

 

 Important Disclosures

 

Due to the nature of technical analysis, the issuers or securities recommended or discussed in this report are not continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers and/or securities.

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BofA Securities fixed income analysts regularly interact with sales and trading desk personnel in connection with their research, including to ascertain pricing and liquidity in the fixed income markets.

 

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Prices are indicative and for information purposes only. Except as otherwise stated in the report, for any recommendation in relation to an equity security, the price referenced is the publicly traded price of the security as of close of business on the day prior to the date of the report or, if the report is published during intraday trading, the price referenced is indicative of the traded price as of the date and time of the report and in relation to a debt security (including equity preferred and CDS), prices are indicative as of the date and time of the report and are from various sources including BofA Securities trading desks.

The date and time of completion of the production of any recommendation in this report shall be the date and time of dissemination of this report as recorded in the report timestamp.

 

​This report may refer to fixed income securities or other financial instruments that may not be offered or sold in one or more states or jurisdictions, or to certain categories of investors, including retail investors. Readers of this report are advised that any discussion, recommendation or other mention of such instruments is not a solicitation or offer to transact in such instruments. Investors should contact their BofA Securities representative or Merrill Global Wealth Management financial advisor for information relating to such instruments.

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​SECURITIES OR OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS DISCUSSED HEREIN MAY BE RATED BELOW INVESTMENT GRADE AND SHOULD THEREFORE ONLY BE CONSIDERED FOR INCLUSION IN ACCOUNTS QUALIFIED FOR SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT.

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The securities or other financial instruments discussed in this report may be traded over-the-counter. Retail sales and/or distribution of this report may be made only in states where these instruments are exempt from registration or have been qualified for sale.

Officers of BofAS or one or more of its affiliates (other than research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or in related investments.

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"BofA Securities" includes BofA Securities, Inc. ("BofAS") and its affiliates. Investors should contact their BofA Securities representative or Merrill Global Wealth Management financial advisor if they have questions concerning this report or concerning the appropriateness of any investment idea described herein for such investor. "BofA Securities" is a global brand for BofA Global Research.

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​​BofAS and/or Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated ("MLPF&S") may in the future distribute, information of the following non-US affiliates in the US (short name: legal name, regulator): Merrill Lynch (South Africa): Merrill Lynch South Africa (Pty) Ltd., regulated by The Financial Service Board; MLI (UK): Merrill Lynch International, regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA); BofASE (France): BofA Securities Europe SA is authorized by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR) and regulated by the ACPR and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). BofA Securities Europe SA ("BofASE") with registered address at 51, rue La Boétie, 75008 Paris is registered under no 842 602 690 RCS Paris. In accordance with the provisions of French Code Monétaire et Financier (Monetary and Financial Code), BofASE is an établissement de crédit et d'investissement (credit and investment institution) that is authorised and supervised by the European Central Bank and the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR) and regulated by the ACPR and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers. BofASE's share capital can be found at www.bofaml.com/BofASEdisclaimer; BofA Europe (Milan): Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company, Milan Branch, regulated by the Bank of Italy, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI); BofA Europe (Frankfurt): Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company, Frankfurt Branch regulated by BaFin, the ECB and the CBI; BofA Europe (Madrid): Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company, Sucursal en España, regulated by the Bank of Spain, the ECB and the CBI; Merrill Lynch (Australia): Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited, regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission; Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong): Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited, regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFC); Merrill Lynch (Singapore): Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS); Merrill Lynch (Canada): Merrill Lynch Canada Inc, regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization; Merrill Lynch (Mexico): Merrill Lynch Mexico, SA de CV, Casa de Bolsa, regulated by the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores; BofAS Japan: BofA Securities Japan Co., Ltd., regulated by the Financial Services Agency; Merrill Lynch (Seoul): Merrill Lynch International, LLC Seoul Branch, regulated by the Financial Supervisory Service; Merrill Lynch (Taiwan): Merrill Lynch Securities (Taiwan) Ltd., regulated by the Securities and Futures Bureau; BofAS India: BofA Securities India Limited, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI); Merrill Lynch (Israel): Merrill Lynch Israel Limited, regulated by Israel Securities Authority; Merrill Lynch (DIFC): Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Merrill Lynch S.A. Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários, regulated by Comissão de Valores Mobiliários; Merrill Lynch KSA Company: Merrill Lynch Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Company, regulated by the Capital Market Authority.​

This information: has been approved for publication and is distributed in the United Kingdom (UK) to professional clients and eligible counterparties (as each is defined in the rules of the FCA and the PRA) by MLI (UK), which is authorized by the PRA and regulated by the FCA and the PRA - details about the extent of our regulation by the FCA and PRA are available from us on request; has been approved for publication and is distributed in the European Economic Area (EEA) by BofASE (France), which is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the ACPR and the AMF; has been considered and distributed in Japan by BofAS Japan, a registered securities dealer under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act in Japan, or its permitted affiliates; is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) which is regulated by HKSFC; is issued and distributed in Taiwan by Merrill Lynch (Taiwan); is issued and distributed in India by BofAS India; and is issued and distributed in Singapore to institutional investors and/or accredited investors (each as defined under the Financial Advisers Regulations) by Merrill Lynch (Singapore) (Company Registration No 198602883D). Merrill Lynch (Singapore) is regulated by MAS. Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited (ABN 65 006 276 795), AFS License 235132 (MLEA) distributes this information in Australia only to 'Wholesale' clients as defined by s.761G of the Corporations Act 2001. With the exception of Bank of America N.A., Australia Branch, neither MLEA nor any of its affiliates involved in preparing this information is an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution under the Banking Act 1959 nor regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. No approval is required for publication or distribution of this information in Brazil and its local distribution is by Merrill Lynch (Brazil) in accordance with applicable regulations. Merrill Lynch (DIFC) is authorized and regulated by the DFSA. Information prepared and issued by Merrill Lynch (DIFC) is done so in accordance with the requirements of the DFSA conduct of business rules. BofA Europe (Frankfurt) distributes this information in Germany and is regulated by BaFin, the ECB and the CBI. BofA Securities entities, including BofA Europe and BofASE (France), may outsource/delegate the marketing and/or provision of certain research services or aspects of research services to other branches or members of the BofA Securities group. You may be contacted by a different BofA Securities entity acting for and on behalf of your service provider where permitted by applicable law. This does not change your service provider. Please refer to the Electronic Communications Disclaimers for further information.

​This information has been prepared and issued by BofAS and/or one or more of its non-US affiliates. The author(s) of this information may not be licensed to carry on regulated activities in your jurisdiction and, if not licensed, do not hold themselves out as being able to do so. BofAS and/or MLPF&S is the distributor of this information in the US and accepts full responsibility for information distributed to BofAS and/or MLPF&S clients in the US by its non-US affiliates. Any US person receiving this information and wishing to effect any transaction in any security discussed herein should do so through BofAS and/or MLPF&S and not such foreign affiliates. Hong Kong recipients of this information should contact Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited in respect of any matters relating to dealing in securities or provision of specific advice on securities or any other matters arising from, or in connection with, this information. Singapore recipients of this information should contact Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this information. For clients that are not accredited investors, expert investors or institutional investors Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd accepts full responsibility for the contents of this information distributed to such clients in Singapore.

General Investment Related Disclosures:

Taiwan Readers: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to transact in any securities or other financial instrument. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or any other person without the express written consent of BofA Securities.

This document provides general information only, and has been prepared for, and is intended for general distribution to, BofA Securities clients. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of, and is not directed to, any specific person(s). This document and its content do not constitute, and should not be considered to constitute, investment advice for purposes of ERISA, the US tax code, the Investment Advisers Act or otherwise. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this document.

Securities and other financial instruments referred to herein, or recommended, offered or sold by BofA Securities, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution (including, Bank of America, N.A.). Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. Digital assets are extremely speculative, volatile and are largely unregulated. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change.

Futures and options are not appropriate for all investors. Such financial instruments may expire worthless. Before investing in futures or options, clients must receive the appropriate risk disclosure documents. Investment strategies explained in this report may not be appropriate at all times. Costs of such strategies do not include commission or margin expenses.

BofA Securities is aware that the implementation of the ideas expressed in this report may depend upon an investor's ability to "short" securities or other financial instruments and that such action may be limited by regulations prohibiting or restricting "shortselling" in many jurisdictions. Investors are urged to seek advice regarding the applicability of such regulations prior to executing any short idea contained in this report.

This report may contain a trading idea or recommendation which highlights a specific identified near-term catalyst or event impacting a security, issuer, industry sector or the market generally that presents a transaction opportunity, but does not have any impact on the analyst's particular "Overweight" or "Underweight" rating (which is based on a three month trade horizon). Trading ideas and recommendations may differ directionally from the analyst's rating on a security or issuer because they reflect the impact of a near-term catalyst or event.

Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency risk.

BofAS or one of its affiliates is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may have been recommended in this report. BofAS or one of its affiliates may, at any time, hold a trading position (long or short) in the securities and financial instruments discussed in this report.

BofA Securities, through business units other than BofA Global Research, may have issued and may in the future issue trading ideas or recommendations that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. Such ideas or recommendations may reflect different time frames, assumptions, views and analytical methods of the persons who prepared them, and BofA Securities is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this information.

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Copyright 2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. iQdatabase® is a registered service mark of Bank of America Corporation. This information is prepared for the use of BofA Securities clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of BofA Securities. BofA Global Research information is distributed simultaneously to internal and client websites and other portals by BofA Securities and is not publicly-available material. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained herein (including any investment recommendations, estimates or price targets) without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of BofA Securities.

Materials prepared by BofA Global Research personnel are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BofA Securities, including investment banking personnel. BofA Securities has established information barriers between BofA Global Research and certain business groups. As a result, BofA Securities does not disclose certain client relationships with, or compensation received from, such issuers. To the extent this material discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this material. BofA Global Research personnel's knowledge of legal proceedings in which any BofA Securities entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving issuers mentioned in this material is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BofA Securities in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings.

This information has been prepared independently of any issuer of securities mentioned herein and not in connection with any proposed offering of securities or as agent of any issuer of any securities. None of BofAS any of its affiliates or their research analysts has any authority whatsoever to make any representation or warranty on behalf of the issuer(s). BofA Global Research policy prohibits research personnel from disclosing a recommendation, investment rating, or investment thesis for review by an issuer prior to the publication of a research report containing such rating, recommendation or investment thesis.

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All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. BofA Securities is under no obligation to update this information and BofA Securities ability to publish information on the subject issuer(s) in the future is subject to applicable quiet periods. You should therefore assume that BofA Securities will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained herein.

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In some cases, an issuer may be classified as Restricted or may be Under Review or Extended Review. In each case, investors should consider any investment opinion relating to such issuer (or its security and/or financial instruments) to be suspended or withdrawn and should not rely on the analyses and investment opinion(s) pertaining to such issuer (or its securities and/or financial instruments) nor should the analyses or opinion(s) be considered a solicitation of any kind. Sales persons and financial advisors affiliated with BofAS or any of its affiliates may not solicit purchases of securities or financial instruments that are Restricted or Under Review and may only solicit securities under Extended Review in accordance with firm policies.

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