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Key takeaways
- Short term: US yields to bounce back in June. 2Y & 30Y double bottomed. 5Y & 10Y on breakout watch. MACD crosses favor this.
- Medium term: We still view 1H24 as a correction of 4Q23 that is nearing an end. Post Memorial Day, we prefer buying the dips.
- Macro choppy: USUR uptrend at two-year highs (bullish USTs), but BCOM formed a head and shoulders base (bearish USTs).
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2/5/10/30Y = 2-/5-/10-/30-year
BCOM = Bloomberg commodities index
d = day
NFP = Non-Farm Payrolls
RSI = Relative Strength Index
SMA = Simple Moving Average
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UST = US Treasury
US U-Rate = US unemployment rate
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View: A patient summer of buying dips
Our base-case year ahead view remains: In 2024 the US bond market is in a cyclical bull trend within a secular bear. We called for a 1Q24 rise in yields and deemed it counter-trend. As chart patterns evolved in Q1 we saw how yields could extend upside in Q2. On April 17 (see our Rates Technical Advantage report), we thought it reasonable to expect the 10Y yield to peak in the 4.70-5.02% area by the Memorial Day holiday. On April 25-26, the 10Y yield reached 4.74%. The ensuing suite of April US data left little time to get long, as a 43bp decline followed. Our thought process looking ahead to the rest of Q2 and mainly 2H24 is shifting further toward buying dips. Â Technical academia still suggests medium-term wave (B) up in the 10Y yield during 1H24 is more behind us than left in front and wave (C) down begins this summer/fall (see Chart 6). While our ideal buy zones are currently out of reach (see our May 8th report, Buy zones in Q2), we see some signals and patterns in the daily charts that indicate yields bouncing back in June.
Short term: MACDs and patterns say yields bounce back
Our daily charts of US 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30Y yields show the MACD indicator crossing up in favor of yields bouncing back in June. The daily chart of 2- and 30Y yields already double bottomed and target 5.10% and 4.72%. We are watching to see if the 5Y and 10Y yield charts break out or form the right shoulder of a head and shoulders base to also signal a June bounce.
Medium term: 1H24 higher yields, 2H24 lower yields
Our view for a 1H24 rise in yields is nearing an end. The weekly charts of US 2-, 5-, 10- and 30Y yields all still read as if the 1H24 is a correction of the 4Q23 decline and to be long USTs the closer we get to the 2H24. The April-May yield declines stopped at old breakout levels (yields supported) as the daily charts show potential for a June rebound. This means that we will probably see better levels to buy USTs in June-July than right now.
Five things the US yield charts say
- Upside risk for US 2Y Yield. A small double bottom targets 5.05-5.10% in June. In the weekly chart, we still cannot rule out a retest of cycle highs +/- 5.25%.
- US 10Y Yield: Base case is to be long for this summer/fall. We prefer to nibble at 4.6%, buy 4.75%, and "load the boat" if above 4.85%.
- US 10Y Seasonals: Since 1963, the seasonal peak for 10Y yield is May 13-20 (behind us). When the 10Y yield has been up in January, the peak has been +/- August 9 (patience?).
- US 5-, 10-, and 30Y yield weekly chart uptrends YTD are still supported by trend lines and base patterns. We may see better levels to buy in June-July than now.
- Macro mismatch: The US U-Rate has made three higher highs and higher lows and a two-year new high to favor buying UST dips. However, the BCOM index has a head and shoulders base and golden cross signal, implying a commodities rally. This may cause inflation to stick longer and supports yields this summer.
Appendix: US Yield Charts
 US 2Y Yield
US 2Y Yield: A small double bottom and MACD cross says higher to 5.05-5.10%
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US 2Y Yield: Base case has been a wedge top and modest new high, but...
Our base case has viewed the weekly chart below as a rising wedge top pattern. This wedge pattern and the cup and handle base pattern formed over the last few months suggested that a modest new cycle high was possible, such as +/- 5.35%. Post April NFP, yield is trading in a 4.75-5.00% range. By retesting and holding above 4.75%, potential for this upside remains (small double bottom in the daily chart above). A weekly close above 5% would increase this potential again because it would break through the black trend line.
Post April data, US treasuries rallied sharply, leading us to consider additional yield top scenarios. We present two alternative technical top scenarios that we continue to track. A second scenario is that a triangle pattern forms in line with a "higher for longer" and "lower vol" market narrative. A third scenario has been the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top forming. The break above 4.75%, signaling a cup and handle pattern, reduced this potential, while the downturn after US NFP data modestly revived it. Yield would have to fall further in May-June to help this scenario develop.
US 5Y Yield: MACD crossing up as yield breaks to new highs
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US 5Y Yield: Cup and handle base holds, (B) near end in 4.75-4.98% area
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 US 10Y Yield
US 10Y Yield: MACD crossing up, potential for breakout or right shoulder of a head and shoulders base
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US 10Y Yield: Wave (B) up near an end in the 4.70-5.02% area
We have continued to trend follow wave (B) up, which represents a counter-trend correction of wave (A) down in 4Q23. Technicals on the daily chart had suggested upside potential to 4.70% and that yield peaks in the 4.70-5.02% area, possibly by Memorial Day. This target was reached during the April 25-26 sessions, with 10Y yield trading up to 4.74%. But it did not last for long, as yields corrected lower after US labor market data to test and hold support at a prior breakout level. From this bigger picture, wave (B) up is either over or has one more push higher left in Q2, which we would look to buy.
When forming a cycle top, in the past, the 10Y yield has had some tendency to retest the prior high to form a double top pattern. A top pattern for a cycle turn is more ideal than not. This means that there is risk of a rise closer to 5% before a turn down in yield begins. That turn lower would represent wave (C) down into YE24-1H25, in our wave count view.
A risk to our base case wave count: A repeat of 2H22-1H23, which means that wave (5) up to 5.50% has not occurred yet and this (A)(B) is part of a wave (4) triangle. For an introduction to Elliott wave analysis, see the report, Technicals Explained: Get to know technical strategy January 2024.
 US 10Y Seasonals
One curve says peak in May, another August = Buy summer dips
- The average trend of the US 10Y yield since 1963 is up into May, it tops in May-August, and then it declines into year-end (dark blue line in Exhibit 1).
- The average trend of the US 10Y yield since 1963 when yield was up in January (as in 2024) is higher through August-September and lower through year-end (light blue line in Exhibit 1).
- The average trend of the US 10Y yield since 1963 when yield rose in January and it was the fourth year of a US presidential cycle saw US yield impulsively higher in Q1, then it topped and dropped in Q2, and it traded choppy/sideways through year-end. Year 4s with an up January were 1964, 1972, 1976, 1980, 1992, 1996, and 2000 (see orange line in Exhibit 1)
- The red line in Exhibit 1 below graphs the YTD net change in US 10Y yield in 2024, normalized to the other curves. The rise in yield so far this year has been impulsively higher, exceeding all average comparisons. All lines suggest that the trend gets choppy in May.
This section is an update to our seasonal and cycle analysis discussed in the report, Rates Technical Advantage: So goes January and so goes US 10Y yield? 07 February 2024. |
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US 30Y Yield: Uptrend still supported, double bottom forming, MACD crossing
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US 30Y Yield: Yield likely peaks in the 4.85-5.06% area
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 US U-Rate
Three higher highs and higher lows = Uptrend
 BCOM
Testing top of range, golden cross tailwind?
Chart Alpha
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