Morning Market Tidbits

Section 301 tariffs to offset Section 122 expiration

Authored By
Analyst Name Antonio Gabriel
Analyst Email antonio.gabriel@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Global Economist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Pedro Diaz
Analyst Email pdiaz2@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Caribbean Economist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name US Economics
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Global Economics Team
Analyst Region BofAS
Report Details
08 June 2026 Economics United States

Morning Market Tidbits

Section 301 tariffs to offset Section 122 expiration

Authored By
Analyst Name Antonio Gabriel
Analyst Email antonio.gabriel@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Global Economist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Pedro Diaz
Analyst Email pdiaz2@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Caribbean Economist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name US Economics
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Global Economics Team
Analyst Region BofAS
Report Details
08 June 2026 Economics United States
Glossary
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Key takeaways
  • The newly proposed Section 301 tariffs should keep the US effective tariff rate unchanged once Section 122 tariffs expire.
  • The newly proposed tariffs should be second order to the inflation and growth outlook, at least for the US, in our view.
  • Today the focus will be on May NY Fed inflation expectations.

Morning Market Tidbits

 

USTR: US Trade Representative

 

Morning Market Tidbits

 

 What Matters Today:  The US effective tariff rate should remain nearly unchanged with the latest USTR proposed duties under Section 301, once Section 122 tariffs expire in July

Evolution of the theoretical US effective tariff rate (%)

What Matters Today: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Haver

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

The effective tariff rate should remain unchanged

We estimate the latest tariffs proposed by the US administration represent almost 2pp for the US effective tariff rate. This is nearly identical to our initial estimate of the impact of 10% Section 122 tariffs. As a result, the US effective tariff rate should remain nearly unchanged after Section 122 tariffs expire in July. The newly proposed duties pose slight upside risks to our call for the observed drop in effective tariffs to persist, but any impact on US inflation/growth would be second order, in our view.

See also: Global Watch: New Section 301 tariffs could compensate for the expiration of Section 122

 

 

Morning Market Tidbits

US GDP Tracking

 Exhibit 1: 2Q GDP tracking remains at 2.7% q/q saar

BofA US GDP tracking estimate (% q/q saar)

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Net exports

CIPI

Date

Data release

GDP

Final Sales

PCE

Res. Inv.

Struct

Equip

IPP

Gov.

Exports

Imports

(level)

(level)

5/1/26

Official Forecast

2.5

2.3

2.7

0.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

0.4

1.5

0.0

-1057.2

-1.5

5/14/26

Retail Sales, Business Inventories

2.6

2.3

2.8

0.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

0.4

1.5

0.0

-1059.3

1.6

5/15/26

Industrial Production

2.6

2.4

2.8

0.2

-0.3

3.5

4.0

0.4

1.5

0.0

-1059.3

1.6

5/21/26

Housing Starts

2.6

2.4

2.8

0.7

-0.3

3.5

4.0

0.4

1.5

0.0

-1059.3

1.6

5/28/26

1Q GDP (S), Durable Goods, New Home Sales, Inventories

2.5

2.3

2.6

0.5

-0.3

3.7

4.0

0.4

1.5

0.0

-1059.3

-0.3

5/29/26

Advance Goods Trade

2.7

2.3

2.6

0.5

-0.3

3.7

4.0

0.4

5.4

1.5

-1047.3

-0.3

6/1/26

Construction Spending

2.7

2.3

2.6

1.5

-1.7

3.7

4.0

0.6

5.4

1.5

-1047.3

-0.3

6/3/26

Factory Orders, Auto Sales

2.7

2.3

2.6

1.5

-1.7

4.1

4.0

0.6

5.4

1.5

-1047.3

-1.2

 

GDP tracking

2.7

2.3

2.6

1.5

-1.7

4.1

4.0

0.6

5.4

1.5

-1047.3

-1.2

 

Contribution to GDP growth (pp)

 

 

1.8

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.1

 

 

0.4

0.0

 

BofA official GDP forecast

2.5

2.3

2.7

0.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

0.4

1.5

0.0

-1053.4

-19.7

                Source: BofA Global Research. Our GDP tracking estimate reflects the mechanical aggregation of incoming data that directly informs the BEA's GDP calculations. The process is distinct from our official published GDP forecast. Boldface cells indicate where data have implications for tracking estimates

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Today's economic calendar

Exhibit 2: Today the focus will be on May NY Fed inflation expectations

June 5th

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 Date

Time

Indicator

Period

BofA Estimate

Consensus

Previous

6/8/2026

11:00

NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations

May

--

3.70%

3.64%

  Source: Bloomberg, BofA Global Research

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

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