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Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
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Key takeaways
- Back to Goldilocks, end of trade war, start of tax cuts...door wide open for stock bulls if oil pop short-lived
- Contrarian long bonds working; long EM...AI eats commodities, Emerging Markets make commodities
- 20 charts of secular bull & bear trends in macro & markets in 2020s
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Scores on the Doors: gold 25.8%, stocks 7.7%, govt bonds 6.0%, IG bonds 5.9%, HY bonds 5.4%, cash 1.9%, commodities 1.7%, oil -5.0%, crypto -5.4%, US dollar -9.1% YTD.
Zeitgeist: "Saying investors are underweight US assets is like saying the runner-up at the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is underweight hot dogs; he's not underweight, he's just eaten 60 dogs in 10 minutes."
Tale of the Tape: back to Goldilocks, end of trade war, start of tax cuts…door wide open for stock bulls; but fresh US upside healthy only if breadth improves (US value vs growth at multi-year lows…need banks, mid-caps to catch, likes of WMT/COST to hold despite geopolitical oil pop); international value stocks outperforming growth (Chart 3) but watch stalled Europe & Japan banks for 1st signs of Q3 global equity "bull trap."
The Price is Right: contrarian long bonds to keep working…US govt spend growth down from 10% YoY in Dec to flat, Trump needs to keep gas prices down despite Israel-Iran, tariffs proving deflationary in US/more growth -ve in RoW, weakening US labor market, investor focus set to shift from 57 global rate cuts in H1 to Fed cuts in H2.
The Biggest Picture: AI eats commodities, Emerging Markets make commodities, US$ in bear, EM stocks at 50-year lows vs US (Chart 2), long EM…easy allocation decision.
More on page 2…
Weekly Flows: $15.0bn to bonds, $1.7bn to gold, $0.8bn to crypto, $9.1bn from cash, $10.0bn from stocks.
Weekly Flows to Know:
- Credit: inflows to both IG bonds ($7.8bn past week) and HY bonds ($2.0bn);
- Â EM debt: 8th week of inflows and 4th biggest inflow ever ($3.8bn - Chart 4);
- US equities: biggest outflow in 11 weeks ($9.8bn);
- Europe equities: first outflow in 9 weeks ($0.6bn);
- Brazil equities: biggest inflow since Jun'22 ($0.4bn).
Flows to Know:
- US assets: $2.6tn inflow decade-to-date, 2025 inflow annualizing $575bn = 3rd largest year ever (Chart 5);
- US assets foreign buying: $547bn inflow decade-to-date, 2025 inflow annualizing $138bn = 2nd largest year ever;
- US stocks: $1.3tn inflow decade-to-date, 2025 inflow annualizing $316bn = 2nd largest inflow ever;
- US stocks foreign buying: $350bn inflow decade-to-date, 2025 inflow annualizing $136bn = 2nd largest year ever (Chart 6);
- US vs RoW stocks: decade-to-date $1.3tn to US stocks & $0.3tn to International stocks…US monopolization of global equity inflows has dropped from 86% in 2024 to 72% in 2025.
BofA Private Clients: $3.9tn AUM…63.3% stocks (highest since Apr'22); private clients selling bonds at fastest pace in 2 months; in ETFs private clients buying HY, TIPS, and utilities stocks past 4 weeks, selling Japan, dividend, and energy stocks.
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: jumps to 5.2 from 4.4 (largest jump since Oct'24 China stimulus); BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 3-month high on strong inflows to HY bonds & EM assets, robust credit market technicals, strong global stock index breadth.
BofA Global Breadth Rule: when >88% of MSCI ACWI country stock indices trading above 50-& 200-day moving averages…sell, and when >88% trading below…buy; past 3 weeks 80-84% trading >50/200dma…stocks close to overbought territory.
The Longest Pictures: in advance of publication of 7th edition of BofA's Longest Pictures, we showcase 20 charts on secular trends in the macro & markets in the 2020s (Charts 7-24).
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Asset Class Flows (Table 1)
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BofA private client flows & allocations
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The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns
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BofA Rules & Tools
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BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B)
Our BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is at 5.2 signal is Neutral.
Disclaimer: The indicators identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator, MVP Model, BofA Global Breadth Rule, BofA EM Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global FMS Macro Indicator, BofA Global FMS Cash Rule, Global Wave, Sell-Side Indicator, and Global Financial Stress Indicator are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark.
The analysis of the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator in this report is back-tested and does not represent the actual performance of any account or fund. Back-tested performance depicts the hypothetical back-tested performance of a particular strategy over the time period indicated. In future periods, market and economic conditions will differ and the same strategy will not necessarily produce the same results. No representation is being made that any actual portfolio is likely to have achieved returns similar to those shown herein. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between back-tested returns and the actual results realized in the actual management of a portfolio. Back-tested performance results are created by applying an investment strategy or methodology to historical data and attempts to give an indication as to how a strategy might have performed during a certain period in the past if the product had been in existence during such time. Back-tested results have inherent limitations including the fact that they are calculated with the full benefit of hindsight, which allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted to maximize the returns. Further, the results shown do not reflect actual trading or the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on a portfolio manager's decision-making under actual circumstances.  Back-tested returns do not reflect advisory fees, trading costs, or other fees or expenses.
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2025 Cross-Asset Winners & Losers
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Acronyms
FMS - Fund Manager Survey
GWIM - Global Wealth and Investment Management
MA - Moving average
MMF - Money Market Fund
FCI - Financial conditions index
AUM - Assets Under Management
U-rate - unemployment rate
RoW - Rest of World
CRFB - Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
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 Important Disclosures
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FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicators of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst's assessment of both a stock's absolute total return potential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat or increase in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. An investment rating of 6 (No Rating) indicates that a stock is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. Analysts assign investment ratings considering, among other things, the 0-12 month total return expectation for a stock and the firm's guidelines for ratings dispersions (shown in the table below). The current price objective for a stock should be referenced to better understand the total return expectation at any given time. The price objective reflects the analyst's view of the potential price appreciation (depreciation).
INCOME RATINGS, indicators of potential cash dividends, are: 7Â -Â same/higher (dividend considered to be secure), 8Â -Â same/lower (dividend not considered to be secure) and 9Â -Â pays no cash dividend. Coverage Cluster is comprised of stocks covered by a single analyst or two or more analysts sharing a common industry, sector, region or other classification(s). A stock's coverage cluster is included in the most recent BofA Global Research report referencing the stock.Â
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