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Key takeaways
- Fed slashing to prevent US small biz sector cutting jobs...Wall St. loves "panic cuts" when no panic
- Landing "tells"...PSP >$70 = soft, GNR>$60, KRE>$60, EEM >$45 = no landing, GT30 yield <3.75% = hard landing
- International stocks & resources = best soft landing plays; we BTD bonds & gold for recession/inflation "tails"
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Scores on the Doors: gold 25.0%, crypto 17.3%, stocks 17.3%, HY bonds 8.3%, IG bonds 5.4%, cash 3.9%, commodities 2.6%, govt bonds 2.1%, oil 0.5%, US$ -0.7% YTD.
The Biggest Picture: Wall St loves "panic cuts" when no panic (Chart 2); 50bps as Fed wants to slash real rates to prevent recessionary small biz sector cutting jobs (Chart 3); Wall St chase says Fed "ahead of curve" and 250bps cuts = 15-20% EPS growth in '25; best "soft landing" plays = international stocks & commodities; we use rip to buy dips in Bonds & Bullion to hedge recession & inflation "tails".
The Price is Right: soft landing tell = private equity ETF (PSP) >$70 (the '21 high when Fed funds 0.25%...says big rate cuts bullish macro); no landing tell = GNR>$60, KRE>$60, EEM>$45…says Wall St inflation will mutate to Main St; hard landing tell = 30-year UST rallies < 3¾% despite debt, deficits, politics, inflationary Fed.
Tale of the Tape: last time Fed eased 50bps with credit spreads this low was Jan'81, with stocks at all-time highs was Apr'86 (Table 1); historic norm is inflows to money market funds continue after 1st Fed cut for 9 months (Chart 4); but aggressive Fed ease '09 & '20 caused sharp drop in MMFA, and this source of blowoff top risk…note big IG bond & stock inflows this week.
More on page 2…
Weekly Flows: $38.6bn to stocks, $15.5bn to bonds, $0.5bn to gold, $0.5bn to crypto, $7.6bn from cash.
Flows to Know:
- Cash: 1st outflow in 7 weeks ($7.6bn);
- IG bonds: largest inflow in 4 years ($13.9bn);
- US stocks: 3rd largest inflow in 2024 ($33.8bn);
- US value: largest inflow since Dec'23 ($4.2bn);
- Consumer funds: largest inflow in 8 months ($0.9bn);
- Utility funds: largest outflow since May'24 ($0.2bn).
BofA Private Clients: $3.7tn AUM…62.2% stocks, 20.0% bonds, 10.9% cash; biggest private client outflow from cash in 4 months, biggest inflow to equities in 10 weeks, biggest inflow to T-notes since Oct'22; past 4 weeks GWIM buying bond sensitive MLPs, utilities, and financial sector ETFs, and selling low-vol, industrials, and staples.
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: falls to 5.2 from 5.4 on global equity fund outflows, big hedging activity against lower SPX & oil; positioning neutral…consensus long credit & stocks with big downside hedges; note hedge funds least bullish on 2-year Treasury contracts since May'23, most bullish on Japan yen since Feb'21.
The 1st Time: 12 occasions since 1970 that Fed cut rates for 1st time…3 types of cuts, & 3 types of Wall St reaction (see our note: The Flow Show: Old School Risk-Off)…
- "Soft cuts"…Fed cuts into "soft landing", e.g. 1984, 1995, 2019... positive for stocks (S&P 500 up 10% in 6 months after 1st cut) and bonds (10-year UST yield down 56bps);
- "Hard cuts"…Fed cuts into "hard landing", e.g. 1973, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1989, 2001, 2007; negative for stocks (S&P 500 -6% in 3 months) but positive for bonds (10-year UST yield down 38bps in 6 months);
- "Panic cuts"…Fed cuts due to Wall St crash/credit event, e.g. 1987 & 1998…v risk-on (S&P 500 up 20% in 6 months post 1st cut) so long as "event" not felt on Main St.
What to Do:
- Fed 50bps cut sees Wall St follow "soft cuts"/"panic cuts" script…trade classic "Fed pivot" (see asset rally of 1975-76 as Fed slashed from 9% to 4% - Charts 5-6) on expectation Fed can prevent payrolls <100k & rise in delinquencies/defaults;
- credit & stock markets pricing in 250bps rate cuts and 18% SPX EPS growth between now and end-2025 (Chart 7)…don't get much better than that for risk so investors forced to chase; bubble risks returning but use risk rally to buy dips in bonds & gold as recession & inflation reacceleration "tails" too unfashionable…;
- if payrolls (125-175k) confirm soft landing, best plays are a. recessionary commodities & resources which also hedge 2025 reacceleration of inflation and b. broadening of equity positions into international stocks…they cheaper (EEM 11x, ACWI 17x, SPX 21x), starting to outperform, and US dollar to weaken (Chart 8); note both commodities & international stocks (via global growth) benefit from thaw in geopolitical tensions (German DAX at all-time high and lowest German industrial production since 2010 ex-COVID…discounting Russia-Ukraine resolution).
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Asset Class Flows (Table 2)
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BofA private client flows & allocations
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The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns
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BofA Rules & Tools
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BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B)
Our BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is at 5.2 signal is Neutral.
Disclaimer: The indicators identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator, MVP Model, BofA Global Breadth Rule, BofA EM Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global FMS Macro Indicator, BofA Global FMS Cash Rule, Global Wave, Sell-Side Indicator, and Global Financial Stress Indicator are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark.
The analysis of the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator in this report is back-tested and does not represent the actual performance of any account or fund. Back-tested performance depicts the hypothetical back-tested performance of a particular strategy over the time period indicated. In future periods, market and economic conditions will differ and the same strategy will not necessarily produce the same results. No representation is being made that any actual portfolio is likely to have achieved returns similar to those shown herein. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between back-tested returns and the actual results realized in the actual management of a portfolio. Back-tested performance results are created by applying an investment strategy or methodology to historical data and attempts to give an indication as to how a strategy might have performed during a certain period in the past if the product had been in existence during such time. Back-tested results have inherent limitations including the fact that they are calculated with the full benefit of hindsight, which allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted to maximize the returns. Further, the results shown do not reflect actual trading or the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on a portfolio manager's decision-making under actual circumstances.  Back-tested returns do not reflect advisory fees, trading costs, or other fees or expenses.
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2024 Cross-Asset Winners & Losers
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Acronyms
FMS - Fund Manager Survey
ECI: Employment cost index
GWIM - Global Wealth and Investment Management
MMF - Money Market Fund
YCC - Yield Curve Control
QE - Quantitative Easing
QT - Quantitative Tightening
S&L - Savings & Loan
FCI - Financial conditions index
AUM - Assets Under Management
U-rate - unemployment rate
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