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Key takeaways
- Reversal of ABB driving old school summer risk-off: +ve USTs, JPY, UTIL, RTY, REITs, XBI, -ve LQD, NDX, NKY
- Credit spreads = best soft landing case; but if CDX IG >60bps, CDX HY >375bps...narrative shifts from "soft" to "hard"
- Peak global EPS expectations, new lows in China bond yields, extreme Fed front-running...sell 1st rate cut
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Scores on the Doors: crypto 31.3%, gold 17.5%, stocks 13.4%, oil 6.5%, HY bonds 4.8%, commod 3.9%, cash 3.1%, US$ 3.0%, IG bonds 1.7%, govt bonds -1.9% YTD.
 Zeitgeist: "people underestimate how much lower rates may need to go to stimulate a weak economy no longer juiced by government spending."
The Price is Right: US govt spend -6% (12-month rolling - Chart 3), 5-year UST yield down 90bps past 3 months, 14-month high for defensive UTIL vs cyclical TRAN; weaker macro means ABB (Anything But Bonds) trade reversal deepens…relative +ve distressed "leverage" (USTs, utilities, small caps, REITs, Japan yen) & distressed "duration" (biotech).
 Tale of the Tape: central banks cutting fastest pace since Aug'20 (Chart 4), BofA says 56 global cuts in H2'24; US corporate bonds best "tell" whether cutting into "soft" or "hard" landing…we say "harder" landing thus "sell the 1st cut"; key credit spreads that would signal harder landing…CDX IG >60bps (now 55bps) & CDX HY >375bps (now 348bps).
 The Biggest Picture: July US ISM weak (46.8); only other period ISM <50 for long time without negative payroll was Sep'84-Apr'86 (overvalued US dollar - Chart 2); July payrolls >200k…consensus stays "soft landing" but <125k & 10yr yield heading to 3.5%.
More on page 2…
 Weekly Flows: $14.6bn to bonds, $8.9bn to stocks, $0.8bn to gold, $0.4bn from crypto, $12.5bn from cash.
Flows to Know:
- Treasuries: 13th week of inflows ($2.9bn);
- IG bonds: 40th week of inflows ($10.8bn);
- HY bonds: 5th week of inflows ($1.5bn);
- China: 9th week of inflows ($4.8bn);
- Tech: largest inflow in 6 weeks ($3.6bn);
- Utilities: largest inflow in 8 weeks ($0.6bn).
BofA Private Clients: $3.6tn AUM…62.0% stocks, 20.1% bonds, 11.1% cash; BofA GWIM selling stocks (largest 12-week outflow since Dec'23), and buying US Treasuries (largest 8-week inflow to 2-10 year USTs since Mar'23); in ETFs private clients buying Japan, utilities, municipals, and selling TIPS, materials, precious metals past 4 weeks.Â
BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: drops to 6.6 from 6.9 on higher FMS cash, weaker credit technicals, worsening stock index breadth, offsetting bullish hedge fund positioning.
 On "Sell the 1st Rate Cut":
- 12 occasions since 1970 that the Fed has cut rates for the "1st time"; Table 1 illustrates 3 types of Fed cuts…
- "panic cuts"…Fed cutting in response to Wall St crash/credit event, e.g. 1987 & 1998; panic cuts = risk-on (S&P 500 up 20% on average 6 months post 1st cut) so long as Wall St "event" not felt on Main St (e.g. LTCM in '98 was not, whereas Lehman in '08 was);
- "soft cuts"…Fed cuts into "soft landing", e.g. 1984, 1995, 2019; +ve for stocks (S&P 500 up 10%) and bonds (10-year UST yield down 56bps in 6 months after 1st cut);
- "hard cuts"…Fed cuts into "hard landing", e.g. 1973, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1989, 2001, and 2007; -ve for stocks (S&P 500 -6% in 3 months) and +ve for bonds (10-year UST yield down 38bps in 6 months), plus big yield curve steepening (95bps for 2s10s yield curve in 6 months after);
- we say "sell the 1st cut" as "hard landing" risks (11% according to latest BofA Global FMS) clearly rising at a time of strong "soft" (or "no") landing consensus (86% according to FMS);
- and one very important difference in 2024 is extreme degree to which risk assets have front-run Fed cuts…stocks up 32% past 9 months vs. average of 2% in run-up to 12 occasions since 1970 of "the 1st Fed rate cut" (Table 2).
 On Credit & Small Cap:
- US HY best performing fixed income market YTD (annualizing 7.4% return), leveraged companies refinancing at lower cost of debt (e.g. $2bn Royal Caribbean debt refinanced at 6% from 8%); animal spirits in credit shown by big rise in US HY issuance in '24, up from $176bn in '23 and $102bn in '22 - Chart 5) & last month no new defaults across US HY & loans market, 1st time past 2 years; HY the king of the "soft landing" and the ongoing resilience of credit remains the #1 reason why "soft" landing the conventional wisdom.
- Small cap by contrast has been king of the "hard landing"; historically when HY outperforms IG bonds, small cap outperforms large cap big-time (Chart 6)…total opposite past 2 years; H2 reversal of ABB trade, i.e. lower government bond yields in next few quarters indicate small beats large & 2024 is entry point into trade; perfect entry point clearly delayed if HY spreads widen, signaling harder landing.
On Profits: Asian export growth (to decelerate from 10% to <4% by year-end - Chart 7), weaker global manufacturing PMIs (see ISM), steady China financial conditions, lagged impact of US yield curve inversion…BofA Global EPS Growth Model of global profit expectations (i.e. 12-month forward EPS) says EPS forecast to decelerate from +11% YoY in Jul'24 to 5% by Dec'24 (Chart 8); infamous Sahm rule triggered if U-rate rises to 4.3% in H2'24…has either preceded or coincided with every US recession since 1950 (Table 3 & Chart 9); but key for investors to watch is housing…most rate-sensitive…despite drop in yields, mortgage refi activity near 23-year lows.
On Japan, China & Oil: BoJ hikes rates +15bps to 0.25%, announces QT; in '24 BoJ has hiked rates twice, ended YCC, started QT…big moves for Japan…40-year deflation coming to an end; note BoJ raised rates and cut their Japan GDP growth target (FY24 cut from 0.8% to 0.6%) indicating policy trying to strengthen Japanese yen; if Nikkei (which has been massively boosted by weaker yen past year or two) can withstand stronger yen, true sign of bull market (watch Japan banks +42% YTD - Chart 10)…also sign that pain trade of "strong Japan yen" can continue; YTD 10-year bond yields +45bps in Japan, +14bps in US, -45bps in China; baton of deflation well and truly handed off from Japan to China as 10-year China bond yield at all-time low 2.12% (Chart 11 - sending spread between China and Japan yields to lowest in 20 years); China = weak global economy/trade…why oil prices soft despite ongoing geopolitical risks (#1 tail risk in latest BofA Global FMS - Chart 12).
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Asset Class Flows (Table 4)
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BofA private client flows & allocations
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The Asset Class Quilt of Total Returns
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BofA Rules & Tools
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BofA Bull & Bear Indicator (B&B)
Our BofA Bull & Bear Indicator is at 6.6 signal is Neutral.
Disclaimer: The indicators identified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator, MVP Model, BofA Global Breadth Rule, BofA EM Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global Flow Trading Rule, BofA Global FMS Macro Indicator, BofA Global FMS Cash Rule, Global Wave, Sell-Side Indicator, and Global Financial Stress Indicator are intended to be indicative metrics only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These indicators were not created to act as a benchmark.
The analysis of the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator in this report is back-tested and does not represent the actual performance of any account or fund. Back-tested performance depicts the hypothetical back-tested performance of a particular strategy over the time period indicated. In future periods, market and economic conditions will differ and the same strategy will not necessarily produce the same results. No representation is being made that any actual portfolio is likely to have achieved returns similar to those shown herein. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between back-tested returns and the actual results realized in the actual management of a portfolio. Back-tested performance results are created by applying an investment strategy or methodology to historical data and attempts to give an indication as to how a strategy might have performed during a certain period in the past if the product had been in existence during such time. Back-tested results have inherent limitations including the fact that they are calculated with the full benefit of hindsight, which allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted to maximize the returns. Further, the results shown do not reflect actual trading or the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on a portfolio manager's decision-making under actual circumstances.  Back-tested returns do not reflect advisory fees, trading costs, or other fees or expenses.
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2024 Cross-Asset Winners & Losers
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Acronyms
FMS - Fund Manager Survey
ECI: Employment cost index
GWIM - Global Wealth and Investment Management
MMF - Money Market Fund
YCC - Yield Curve Control
QE - Quantitative Easing
QT - Quantitative Tightening
S&L - Savings & Loan
FCI - Financial conditions index
AUM - Assets Under Management
U-rate - unemployment rate
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