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Key takeaways
- 2026 primer on size, returns, composition, flows, valuations of the global bond & equity universe
- 57 exhibits on Wall St vs. Main St, debt levels, K-shape economics, tech concentration, bubbles...
- ...history of returns, crowds, tail risks, flows, valuation, and much more.
Wall Street Life, the Universe and Everything
Our 2026 BofA primer on the size, returns, composition, flows, and valuations of the global bond & equity universe.
The 57 exhibits highlight the history of asset prices, the inexorable rise of global debt, today's K-shape economics, US dominance of bond & equity markets, the surge of tech concentration within equity indices, contrasting sector drivers of regional stock markets, themes attracting the biggest fund inflows, ETF winners & losers, and much more.
Don't Panic…18 must-know stats for investors:
- $314tn: market value of all global bonds & stocks
- 6.5x: size of Wall St (US asset prices) vs. Main St (US GDP), all-time high
- $348tn: total global debt, over 3x the value of global GDP
- 47%: rise in global government debt in past 6 years
- 3¼%: yield on 5-year Treasury must fall below to stabilize US debt interest costs
- 44%: Bank of Japan owns close to half of all outstanding JGBs, up from 8% in '08
- 2020s: top performing assets…bitcoin (45% p.a.), gold (19%), US stocks (15%)
- 2020s: worst performing asset…30-year US Treasury (-54%: peak-to-trough)
- 23%: Swiss franc vs US$ in 2020s, best performing FX (Japan yen worst -32%)
- 318%: silver best performing commodity in 2020s (palladium worst -27%)
- $167tn: global stock market capitalization, up 5x since '08 GFC low
- 37%: equity holdings as a % of US household net worth, record high
- $25tn: US tech sector market cap, bigger than Europe/Japan/China combined
- $3.3tn: Taiwan (GDP<$1tn) market cap now greater than China/HK (GDP $20tn)
- 40%: market cap of largest 10 companies as % of S&P 500 index
- 63%: peak market cap of railroads as % of US stock market in 1881
- 1.1%: dividend yield of US stock market, matching record low in 2000
- 400bps: spread between 30-year UST yield & US dividend yield…widest since 2002
The asset universe & K-shape economics
The universe of global financial assets
The bond universe & leverage
The equity universe & concentration
US Equity Sectors as % of US Stock Market since 1790
- This exhibit shows the sector concentration of the US stock market since 1970. Technology is currently the largest sector, making up 27% of the US stock market.
- Other notable historic concentration peaks: financials >70% of the stock market between 1790 to 1840, transportation 65% in 1880, energy 28% in 1980, tech 28% in 1999.
The world's 10 largest companies since 2000
- This exhibit looks at the top 10 largest companies in the world by market capitalization in 2000, 2007, 2009, 2021 and 2026.
- The top 10 large companies in the world today include all seven of the 'Magnificent 7' stocks, as well as Broadcom, TSMC, and Aramco.
- Microsoft is the only company featured in the top 10 stocks throughout the 21st century.
- The top 10 stocks combined represent 28% of the total MSCI ACWI market cap today versus just 10% in Mar'09.
The capitalization of the global equity market
- The next three exhibits show the country and sector composition of the global equity market.
- The free float capitalization of the global equity market (MSCI ACWI) is currently $103tn. The US market equity accounts for $65tn (63%). The next five biggest markets are Eurozone ($7.7tn), Japan ($5.2tn), Taiwan ($3.3tn), UK ($3.2tn), Canada ($3.1tn).
- The market cap of the US tech sector, at $25tn, is larger than the entire combined market cap of Europe, Japan, and China's stock markets ($22tn).
The country weightings of global equity market
- The US equity market accounts for 76% of the global technology sector, 80% of telecom, and 68% of healthcare, as well as 87% of REITs.
- The European market accounts for 25% of global consumer staples, 25% of industrials, and 21% of materials.
- Emerging markets represent 20% of the global materials sector and 14% of global financials.
The sector weightings of global equity market
- Technology is the biggest equity sector in Taiwan (89% of market cap), Korea (68%), and the US (38%).
- Cyclicals (industrials & consumer discretionary) drive the equity markets of Japan (40% of market cap) and the Eurozone (29%).
- Financials is the biggest sector in Australia (41%), Canada (39%), and the UK (26%).
- The energy & materials sectors drive the equity markets of South Africa (40%), Canada (34%), Brazil (32%), Mexico (31%), and Australia (30%).
The macro backdrop in 2026
Growth & earnings expectations
- 2025-2027 consensus real GDP forecasts: US growth 2-2.5%, Eurozone growth 1-1.5%, China growth 4-5%.
- 2025-2027 consensus EPS forecasts: US growth 15-20%, Eurozone growth 10-20%, China growth 15%.
Inflation & bond yield expectations
- 2025-2027 consensus inflation forecasts: US CPI 2.5-3.5%, Eurozone CPI 2-3%, Japan CPI 2-3%. 1-1.5%, China growth 4-5%.
- 2025-2027 consensus 10-year bond yield forecasts: US 4-4.5%, Germany 2.5-3%, Japan 2.5%.
A short history of asset price returns
Cross-asset returns since 2010
- The next five exhibits show asset price returns by decade back to the 1970s. We start with returns from 2010 to 2026.
- The 2020s has been a decade of pandemic, wars, fiscal excess, end of QE, return of inflation; strongest returns have been from Bitcoin (45.1% decade-to-date annualized), gold (19.1%), commodities (14.3%), US stocks (15.2%); in contrast, 30-year US Treasury (-4.4%) has been a very poor performer.
- The 2010s was a decade of revolutionary monetary policy excess (QE, ZIRP, NIRP, YCC), European debt crises, end of globalization (TPP, Brexit, Trump); 2010s were a period of very strong returns for most assets….US stocks (13.6% annualized), REITs (11.6%) outperformed, commodities (-3.6%), cash (0.6%) underperformed.
Cross-asset returns - 2000s
- The 2000s was a decade that saw the Tech Bubble burst, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, China's accession to the WTO, wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the Chinese equity market bubble & burst, the subprime mortgage crisis, and the global financial crisis.
- The top performers were gold (14.3% annualized), REITs (10.7%), EM stocks (10.1%).
- The worst performers were the US dollar (-2.7%) and the S&P 500 (-0.9%).
Cross-asset returns - 1990s
- The 1990s were a decade that saw the Japan bubble burst, the zenith of globalization (Maastricht Treaty, NAFTA, GATT signed), balanced budgets across the globe, periodic systemic events (Mexico and Asian financial crises), the introduction of the Euro, and the internet bubble.
- US stocks were the best performing asset class in the 1990s (18.2% annualized), followed by EM stocks (11.1%), and the 30-year Treasury (9.1%)
- Gold was the worst performing asset (-3.1% annualized), followed by the US dollar (0.9%).
Cross-asset returns - 1980s
- The 1980s was a decade that started with the second oil shock and LatAm debt crisis, ended with the savings & loan crisis, and in between saw Black Monday, the fall of the Berlin Wall, Japanese real estate bubble; most critically, the 1980s started with a major secular peak in global inflation and interest rates.
- The 1980s was a strong decade for equity returns across both developed (19.9% annualized) and emerging markets (17.4%).
- Gold underperformed throughout the decade (worst performer in 5 out of 10 years).
Cross-asset returns - 1970s
- The 1970s was a decade of protracted inflation, monetary instability, large budget & trade deficits, wage and price controls, OPEC-induced spikes in oil prices, Watergate and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
- Gold was the top performing asset class in the 1970s, with a 30.7% annualized return (gold was the #1 performer in 5 of the 10 years).
Equity, bond, commodity and currency returns
Regional equity market performance since 2007
- Next, we show the historical returns of global equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies.
- Over the past 20 years, the top performing regional equity markets have been Taiwan (14.3% annualized return), US (11.4%), and South Korea (10.3%). South Korea equities are the top performing region YTD (496.3% annualized gain), followed by Taiwan (199.5%). India is the worst-performing equity market YTD (-24.8%).
Fixed income returns since 2007
- This quilt looks at annual returns from global fixed income assets in the past 20 years; since 2007, the broad index of global fixed income (GFIM) has seen a 2.3% total return per annum.
- In 2026, US 3-month T-bills have been the top performer (3.5% annualized) followed by US HY bonds (3.5%); the worst performers…Japan government debt (-7.9%) and UK government debt (-2.8%).
- The US 30-year Treasury lost 54% of its value peak-to-trough in 4 years; in the preceding 15 years it averaged an 8.5% annualized return.
Government bond yields & returns
- The yield on the Global Fixed Income master index is currently 4.2%; the index has a duration of 6 years and is currently down 0.3% in 2026.
- The best-performing sovereign bond market YTD is Brazil (13.3%), followed by Mexico (6.6%) and China (4.5%). The worst-performing markets…Indonesia (-7.3%), then Japan (-4.8%).
Corporate bond yields & spreads
- Corporate bond markets had largely positive returns in 2025, but returns have been more mixed thus far in 2026.
- YTD performance has been led by China HY bonds (6.2%), then US HY energy (4.4%).
- Bond indices currently yielding 8% or more...CCC & lower corporate (13.5%), HY China (11.7%), and sterling HY (8.6%).
Currency & Commodity returns
- Looking at currency ranked returns…since 2020, the top-performing currencies vs the US dollar have been the Swiss franc (22.9%) and Euro (3.7%); the worst performers have been the Japanese yen (-31.8%) and Indian rupee (-25.6%).
- In 2026 the best-performing currency vs the US dollar has been the Russian ruble (5.8%); the worst performer has been the Indian rupee (-1.6%).
- Commodities have been in a secular bull market in the 2020s, which has continued into 2026.
- The best performing commodity YTD has been oil (63.6%).
Flows, risks, crowds & valuations
Asset class flows as a % of AUM since 2008
- This quilt shows inflows & redemptions as a % of AUM by major asset classes since 2008.
- The flow winners YTD have been energy stocks (53.7% of AUM, annualized), Treasuries (12.4%), IG bonds (8.8%), and commodities (8.5%); flow losers YTD have been EM stocks (-5.6%) and financials (-4.6%).
- Last year, commodities and gold were the top asset classes for inflows as a % of AUM. Since 2022, Treasuries have also seen big inflows every year as a % of AUM, driven by demand for T-bills; Cash (money market funds) have also seen big inflows in recent years, albeit slowing in 2026.
The top 10 ETFs by market cap since 2007
- This quilt shows the market capitalization of the top ten ETFs listed in the US since 2007.
- The six biggest ETFs have remained largely the same since 2019; they are: SPY (S&P 500), IVV (S&P 500), VOO (S&P 500), VTI (US total market), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), and VEA (developed markets ex-US).
- In 2026, ETFs of US large cap stocks are the top three ETF positions (VOO, IVV, SPY); in 2026, the EM ETF IEMG has reappeared as the 10th largest ETF in the world.
- Gold had not been in the top 10 for four consecutive years (2021-2024), but has been back in the top 10 since 2025, after strong performance.
A chronology of tail risks
- This chart shows the full history of the biggest "tail risk" for markets according to BofA's monthly Global Fund Management Survey.
- In 2026, the biggest tail risks were seen as geopolitics in Jan, March & April, an AI bubble in February, and in May a 2nd wave of inflation.
A chronology of crowded trades
- This chart shows the full history of the most "crowded trade" according to BofA's monthly Fund Manager Survey.
- In 2026, "long gold" was viewed as the most crowded trade in Jan/Feb/Mar, "long oil" & "long semiconductors" in April, and "long global semiconductors" in May.
Where the dividend yields are
- We finish by returning to the MSCI global markets to examine country and sector valuations around the world.
- This table shows dividend yields around the world; global equities currently yield 1.6%, which compares with a 2.2% average since 1995.
- Note two of the best performing markets of the past 20 years currently have very low dividend yields…1.1% in the US and 1.2% in India. The current US dividend yield is close to the all-time low of 1.06% in March 2000.
Forward Price to Earnings Ratio
- This table shows price/earnings ratios based on 12-month forward earnings. Global equities are currently trading on a forward P/E multiple of 18.5x.
- The forward P/E for DM equities is 19.9x (vs 15.1x average since '05), while EM equities are trading at 12.3x (vs 11.6x average since '06).
- P/E multiples above 20x (expensive): technology (23.6x), industrials (21.9x), telecom (20.1x), Taiwan (22.8x), US (22.1x), Netherlands (21.6x).
- P/E multiples below 10x (cheap): Brazil (7.6x), South Africa (8.7x) , Korea (8.9x).
Trailing Price to Earnings ratio
- This table shows 12-month trailing price/earnings ratios; global equities are currently trading on a trailing P/E multiple of 25.3x.
- The US trailing P/E is now at 29.3x, with tech trading at the highest P/E (44.3x) among US sectors.
Country & Sector Price to Book ratios
- We end with a table showing price-to-book value ratios; global equities are currently trading at 3.9x book value.
- Price-to-book ratios above 4.0x (expensive): technology (11.3x), consumer staples (4.7x), telecom (4.7x), industrials (4.6x), US (5.9x), Taiwan (5.8x).
- Price-to-book ratios below 2.0x (cheap): financials (1.8x), Hong Kong (1.3x), China (1.5x), Germany (1.9x).
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| Timestamp: 28 May 2026 06:00AM EDT |
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