Loading...
Â
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Â
Key takeaways
- Key positive risk event of 2026 is the possible re-opening of the mine. A related announcement is likely to happen in June.
- Incoming fiscal data is reassuring, and Panama Canal is buffering the impact of the Iran shock on the Panamanian economy.
- We maintain our Marketweight recommendation on Panama's external debt, as the market is already pricing an IG credit rating.
Summary of trip: positive catalysts and developments
We travelled to Panama to meet with government officials, politicians, bankers, multilaterals, the business community, and independent analysts. The balance of the takeaways is positive. The key positive risk event of 2026 is the possible re-opening of the Cobre Panama mine, or at least an announcement which points in that direction. Meanwhile, incoming fiscal data suggests the government is likely to meet the Fiscal Rule's target for this year. And the strength of the Panama Canal, benefitting from trade diversion, is buffering the impact of the Iran shock on the Panamanian economy.
Positive risk event is the possible re-opening of the mine
The locals that we met emphasized a higher likelihood of the Cobre Panama copper mine getting reopened in the next six to twelve months. The mine accounts for 3% of value-added in GDP and around 5% through indirect contributions. President Mulino has said he will announce a decision in June. We think the announcement will imply the beginning of a formal negotiation process with the mining company, justified by the results of the environmental audit. The sixth/final report of the audit is due this week.
Polls show falling rejection towards the mine
At least two pollsters - Gallup and Data Consulting Group - are now showing that more than 50% of the population is in favor of re-opening the mine, in contrast to the 80%-90% rejection observed in 2023. Admittedly, some polls (like the one published by La Estrella) present less sanguine results, with support for the mine below 50%. But all things considered, the polls are supportive of the view that there is an improvement.
Locals see lower likelihood of severe social unrest
In addition to the falling rejection towards mining in the polls, it seems that the capacity of the social groups that led the unrest in 2023 (SUNTRACS labor union, teachers, indigenous communities, students, and environmentalists) is weakened. SUNTRACS is in disarray because last year the government subjected it to a financial blockade and arrested its leaders during the protests related to the social security reform. Concomitantly, teachers ended their mobilizations because the government delivered on its threat to not pay salaries during the time on strike.
Greenlight to process stockpile is a soft re-opening
After allowing the mining company (FQML) to sell stored mining concentrate in 2025 ($ 322mn), the government has authorized FQML to process and sell 40mn of copper rock stockpile in 2026, equivalent to roughly half a year of exports. Locals see this as a soft reopening and another token of the Mulino administration's good faith to deal with the mining sector. Notably, in its latest report on FQML, S&P expects the mine to re-open in the second half of 2026, a bold assumption for a credit rating agency.
Four main avenues for a new mining deal
Locals think there are four main ways in which a new win-win deal, between the government and FQML, could play out. One Panamanian lawyer told us that, in any scenario, a smart action by the government would be to request the Supreme Court for a "Constitutional Consultation" of the new deal. "Constitutional Consultations" are a legitimate tool in Panama's Constitution. By doing this, the argument goes, the new deal would be bulletproof in the future. These are the four scenarios:
- Revival of CODEMIN, state-owned mining company
The first is the revival of the state-owned mining company, CODEMIN, and the awarding of an administrative contract to FQML. This would circumvent the ruling from the Supreme Court (which stated that FQML's contract law is unconstitutional) and the necessity of going to Congress.
- Joint venture between government and FQML
The second is a joint venture in which FQML would grant a stake to the government (say 50% or more) with mostly the same advantages as the first strategy but weaker political capital (compared to the Panamanian state being the sole owner of the asset).
- Standard mining concession
The third is a normal concession, under the Mining Code, yet this would require getting the Mining Moratorium Law (enacted in 2023) repealed by Congress. Going to Congress is perceived as a risk not only because the outcome would be uncertain (ruling party doesn't have a majority) but also because the government could lose control of the process.
- Contract law
And the fourth, probably least preferred, is a contract law, like the deal of 2023 that was cancelled by the Supreme Court. We say "least preferred" because the Mulino administration doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of Cortizo.
Turning to the fiscal front, incoming data is reassuring
The fiscal adjustment that is happening in Panama is substantial. The Non-Financial Public Sector deficit narrowed from 6.2% of GDP in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025, meeting the target of the Fiscal Rule - something about which most of the market was skeptical last year. The latest data shows the deficit narrowed further in 1Q2026, to 3.5% of GDP (rolling four quarters), right on the target that is required for 2026.
Higher fuel subsidies dominated by larger Canal dividend
Granted, higher fuel subsidies - because of the Iran War - pressure fiscal accounts. So far, $100mn of additional fuel subsidies have been authorized, equivalent to 0.11% of GDP. But the government is saying it will take a different approach compared to Cortizo in 2022-2023, when fuel prices were frozen and subsidies ballooned. Tellingly, in March, gasoline and diesel recorded their largest hikes since 2008 (gasoline: +20% mom, diesel: +34% mom). Thus, it seems the government is willing to incur the political cost of higher fuel prices to protect the fiscal consolidation.
Higher dividend from the Canal is likely
We expect the increase in fuel subsidies (so far $100mn) to be smaller than the increase in the Panama Canal dividend received by the government (at least + $300mn, 0.31% of GDP). The dividend was $2.9bn in 2025, and the Panama Canal budgeted it at $3.2bn for 2026. Holding everything else constant, this dividend alone could do the trick for the government to meet the fiscal target of 2026 (3.5% of GDP, from 3.7% in 2025, only a 0.2pp improvement is required). We think the dividend is likely to be larger than $3.2bn because Canal revenues are surprising to the upside.
Elasticity of canal revenues to oil and rates is positive
Barring a global recession, the Panama Canal gets more demand if the price of oil goes up (because ships are discouraged from taking longer routes, such as Cape of Horn), interest rates (cost of capital) are higher, and insurance prices increase. Hence, the current scenario - in which oil prices spike and competing trade routes face disruptions, without a global recession (no collapse in global trade) - is a sweet spot for the Panama Canal. In fact, the Panama Canal reported a 10% yoy increase in revenues to just over US$3bn for the first six months of fiscal year 2026. Average daily transits were up 4% yoy.
Panama Canal is benefitting from trade diversion
Japan, South Korea, and China significantly rely on fuel imports from the Middle East. A significant part of this trade is now being diverted through the Panama Canal. The Canal is seeing more transits (from 34 daily transits pre-Iran conflict to 40-41 transits per day now). For more details on the Panama Canal's recent financial results, see the report, Strength amid global turbulence highlights strategic importance of the Panama Canal.
Â
Four Canal projects that support constructive view on Panama
The four projects are the following: I) Rio Indio (supply of water for population and Canal operations, ~$ 1.6bn investment, to begin preliminary works in 2027). II) Logistics corridor ($ 2bn investment, completing the highway beltway, that already exists on the east side, from Pacific to Atlantic in the west side). III) LPG pipeline (cost to be determined, running on the west bank of the Panama Canal, from ocean to ocean). And IV) port container terminals (Corozal in the Pacific and Telfer in the Atlantic, with concessional partner capital).
Permanent macro impacts, such as a structural reform
These four projects could be transformational for the Panama Canal, changing it from a waterway to a logistics company, and could have a significantly positive impact on Panama's macroeconomic indicators. They are expected to increase revenues by ~$2.5bn in a period of 7-8 years and the government's dividend by roughly half of that amount. Canal revenues are currently around $6bn. With organic growth, revenues could reach ~$ 7.5bn in 7-8 years. With the four projects above-mentioned, we could be talking about $10bn. Hence, the current situation with these projects is reminiscent of the doubling of the Canal's cargo capacity between 2008 and 2016. Economic growth, fiscal accounts, and the balance of payments (services exports) would likely be substantially improved.
Â
EXD Strategy
Â
Â
Maintain Marketweight: Market already prices IG rating
Panama trading at BBB valuations vs. BB- valuations in 2025
We maintain our Marketweight recommendation on Panama's external debt (EXD). While we have a constructive view on the economy, bonds already fairly reflect that outlook, in our view. Valuations imply that Panama will retain its investment grade (IG) rating from Moody's (see below). We expect Moody's to maintain a negative outlook on Panama at its next ratings review in May and then stabilize the outlook in November, given the fiscal consolidation and negotiations to reopen Minera Panama and/or fiscal reforms.
Panama trades at around BBB valuations (Exhibit 4), equivalent to about 1-notch upgrade and about a 20bp premium (Exhibit 5). This compares to BB- valuations (around 2.5 notches discount or 95bp discount) in early 2025. Potential positive catalysts are the successful reopening of Minera Panama, which we think could lead to a modest further compression in spreads. A potential negative catalyst is additional Eurobond supply, which could be more likely as spreads tighten.
Â
Â
Â
Panama (PANAMA)
We have a Marketweight recommendation on Panama's external debt . While we have a constructive view on the economy, bonds already fairly reflect that outlook, in our view. Valuations imply that Panama will retain its investment grade (IG) rating from Moody's . We expect Moody's to maintain a negative outlook on Panama at its next ratings review in May and then stabilize the outlook in November, given the fiscal consolidation and negotiations to reopen Minera Panama and/or fiscal reforms.
Upside risks are the re-opening of Minera Panama and fiscal discipline.
Downside risks are fiscal slippage, issuance, geopolitical tensions with the US, slow growth, credit rating downgrades, social protests, arbitration proceedings.
Â
I, Lucas Martin, CFA, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report.
Â
 Important Disclosures
Â
Credit opinion history
Â
Â
BofA Global Research Credit Opinion Key
BofA Global Research provides recommendations on an issuer's bonds (including corporate and sovereign external debt securities), loans, capital securities, equity preferreds and CDS as described below. Convertible securities are not rated. An issuer level recommendation may also be provided for an issuer as explained below. BofA Global Research credit recommendations are assigned using a three-month time horizon.
Issuer Recommendations: If an issuer credit recommendation is provided, it is applicable to bonds and capital securities of the issuer except bonds and capital securities specifically referenced in the report with a different credit recommendation. Where there is no issuer credit recommendation, only individual bonds and capital securities with specific recommendations are covered. Loans, CDS and equity preferreds are rated separately and issuer recommendations do not apply to them.
Â
BofA Global Research credit recommendations are assigned using a three-month time horizon:
Overweight: Spreads and /or excess returns are likely to outperform the relevant and comparable market over the next three months.
Marketweight: Spreads and/or excess returns are likely to perform in-line with the relevant and comparable market over the next three months.
Underweight: Spreads and/or excess returns are likely to underperform the relevant and comparable market over the next three months.
Â
BofA Global Research uses the following rating system with respect to Credit Default Swaps (CDS):
Buy Protection: Buy CDS, therefore going short credit risk.
Neutral: No purchase or sale of CDS is recommended.
Sell Protection: Sell CDS, therefore going long credit risk.
Â
R2 Issuers that were investment banking clients of BofA Securities or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months. For purposes of this Investment Rating Distribution, the coverage universe includes only Sovereign issuer recommendations. A Sovereign issuer rated Overweight is included as a Buy, a Sovereign issuer rated Marketweight is included as a Hold, and a Sovereign issuer rated Underweight is included as a Sell.
Â
Credit Opinion History Tables for the securities referenced in this research report are available on the Price Charts and Credit Opinion History Tables website, or call 1-800-MERRILL to have them mailed.
BofAS or an affiliate was a manager of a public offering of securities of this issuer within the last 12 months: Panama.
The issuer is or was, within the last 12 months, an investment banking client of BofAS and/or one or more of its affiliates: Panama.
BofAS or an affiliate has received compensation from the issuer for non-investment banking services or products within the past 12 months: Panama.
The issuer is or was, within the last 12 months, a non-securities business client of BofAS and/or one or more of its affiliates: Panama.
BofAS or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months: Panama.
BofAS or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer or an affiliate of the issuer within the next three months: Panama.
BofAS or one of its affiliates trades or may trade as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that are the subject of this research report: Panama.
The issuer is or was, within the last 12 months, a securities business client (non-investment banking) of BofAS and/or one or more of its affiliates: Panama.
BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s) responsible for this report) receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of Bank of America Corporation, including profits derived from investment banking. The analyst(s) responsible for this report may also receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of the Bank's sales and trading businesses relating to the class of securities or financial instruments for which such analyst is responsible.
Â
Other Important Disclosures
Prices are indicative and for information purposes only. Except as otherwise stated in the report, for any recommendation in relation to an equity security, the price referenced is the publicly traded price of the security as of close of business on the day prior to the date of the report or, if the report is published during intraday trading, the price referenced is indicative of the traded price as of the date and time of the report and in relation to a debt security (including equity preferred and CDS), prices are indicative as of the date and time of the report and are from various sources including BofA Securities trading desks.
The date and time of completion of the production of any recommendation in this report shall be the date and time of dissemination of this report as recorded in the report timestamp.
Â
​This report may refer to fixed income securities or other financial instruments that may not be offered or sold in one or more states or jurisdictions, or to certain categories of investors, including retail investors. Readers of this report are advised that any discussion, recommendation or other mention of such instruments is not a solicitation or offer to transact in such instruments. Investors should contact their BofA Securities representative or Merrill Global Wealth Management financial advisor for information relating to such instruments.
Rule 144A securities may be offered or sold only to persons in the U.S. who are Qualified Institutional Buyers within the meaning of Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
​SECURITIES OR OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS DISCUSSED HEREIN MAY BE RATED BELOW INVESTMENT GRADE AND SHOULD THEREFORE ONLY BE CONSIDERED FOR INCLUSION IN ACCOUNTS QUALIFIED FOR SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT.
Recipients who are not institutional investors or market professionals should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor before considering information in this report in connection with any investment decision, or for a necessary explanation of its contents.
Officers of BofAS or one or more of its affiliates (other than research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or in related investments.
Individuals identified as economists do not function as research analysts under U.S. law and reports prepared by them are not research reports under applicable U.S. rules and regulations. Macroeconomic analysis is considered investment research for purposes of distribution in the U.K. under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority.
Refer to BofA Global Research policies relating to conflicts of interest.
"BofA Securities" includes BofA Securities, Inc. ("BofAS") and its affiliates. Investors should contact their BofA Securities representative or Merrill Global Wealth Management financial advisor if they have questions concerning this report or concerning the appropriateness of any investment idea described herein for such investor. "BofA Securities" is a global brand for BofA Global Research.
Information relating to Non-US affiliates of BofA Securities and Distribution of Affiliate Research Reports:
​BofAS and/or Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated ("MLPF&S") may in the future distribute, information of the following non-US affiliates in the US (short name: legal name, regulator): Merrill Lynch (South Africa): Merrill Lynch South Africa (Pty) Ltd., regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority; MLI (UK): Merrill Lynch International, regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA); BofASE (France): BofA Securities Europe SA is authorized by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR) and regulated by the ACPR and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). BofA Securities Europe SA ("BofASE") with registered address at 51, rue La Boétie, 75008 Paris is registered under no 842 602 690 RCS Paris. In accordance with the provisions of French Code Monétaire et Financier (Monetary and Financial Code), BofASE is an établissement de crédit et d'investissement (credit and investment institution) that is authorised and supervised by the European Central Bank and the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR) and regulated by the ACPR and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers. BofASE's share capital can be found at www.bofaml.com/BofASEdisclaimer; BofA Europe (Milan): Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company, Milan Branch, regulated by the Bank of Italy, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI); BofA Europe (Frankfurt): Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company, Frankfurt Branch regulated by BaFin, the ECB and the CBI; BofA Europe (Zurich): Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company, Zurich Branch, regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA, the ECB and CBI; BofA Europe (Madrid): Bank of America Europe Designated Activity Company, Sucursal en España, regulated by the Bank of Spain, the ECB and the CBI; Merrill Lynch (Australia): Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited, regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission; Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong): Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited, regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (HKSFC); Merrill Lynch (Singapore): Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS); Merrill Lynch (Canada): Merrill Lynch Canada Inc, regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization; Merrill Lynch (Mexico): Merrill Lynch Mexico, SA de CV, Casa de Bolsa, regulated by the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores; BofAS Japan: BofA Securities Japan Co., Ltd., regulated by the Financial Services Agency; Merrill Lynch (Seoul): Merrill Lynch International, LLC Seoul Branch, regulated by the Financial Supervisory Service; Merrill Lynch (Taiwan): Merrill Lynch Securities (Taiwan) Ltd., regulated by the Securities and Futures Bureau; BofAS India: BofA Securities India Limited, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI); Merrill Lynch (Israel): Merrill Lynch Israel Limited, regulated by Israel Securities Authority; Merrill Lynch (DIFC): Merrill Lynch International (DIFC Branch), regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA); Merrill Lynch (Brazil): Merrill Lynch S.A. Corretora de TÃtulos e Valores Mobiliários, regulated by Comissão de Valores Mobiliários; Merrill Lynch KSA Company: Merrill Lynch Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Company, regulated by the Capital Market Authority.
This information: has been approved for publication and is distributed in the United Kingdom (UK) to professional clients and eligible counterparties (as each is defined in the rules of the FCA and the PRA) by MLI (UK), which is authorized by the PRA and regulated by the FCA and the PRA - details about the extent of our regulation by the FCA and PRA are available from us on request; has been approved for publication and is distributed in the European Economic Area (EEA) by BofASE (France), which is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the ACPR and the AMF; has been considered and distributed in Japan by BofAS Japan, a registered securities dealer under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act in Japan, or its permitted affiliates; is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) which is regulated by HKSFC; is issued and distributed in Taiwan by Merrill Lynch (Taiwan); is issued and distributed in India by BofAS India; and is issued and distributed in Singapore to institutional investors and/or accredited investors (each as defined under the Financial Advisers Regulations) by Merrill Lynch (Singapore) (Company Registration No 198602883D). Merrill Lynch (Singapore) is regulated by MAS. Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited (ABN 65 006 276 795), AFS License 235132 (MLEA) distributes this information in Australia only to 'Wholesale' clients as defined by s.761G of the Corporations Act 2001. With the exception of Bank of America N.A., Australia Branch, neither MLEA nor any of its affiliates involved in preparing this information is an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution under the Banking Act 1959 nor regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. No approval is required for publication or distribution of this information in Brazil and its local distribution is by Merrill Lynch (Brazil) in accordance with applicable regulations. Merrill Lynch (DIFC) is authorized and regulated by the DFSA. Information prepared and issued by Merrill Lynch (DIFC) is done so in accordance with the requirements of the DFSA conduct of business rules. BofA Europe (Frankfurt) distributes this information in Germany and is regulated by BaFin, the ECB and the CBI. BofA Securities entities, including BofA Europe and BofASE (France), may outsource/delegate the marketing and/or provision of certain research services or aspects of research services to other branches or members of the BofA Securities group. You may be contacted by a different BofA Securities entity acting for and on behalf of your service provider where permitted by applicable law. This does not change your service provider. Please refer to the Electronic Communications Disclaimers for further information.
​This information has been prepared and issued by BofAS and/or one or more of its non-US affiliates. The author(s) of this information may not be licensed to carry on regulated activities in your jurisdiction and, if not licensed, do not hold themselves out as being able to do so. BofAS and/or MLPF&S is the distributor of this information in the US and accepts full responsibility for information distributed to BofAS and/or MLPF&S clients in the US by its non-US affiliates. Any US person receiving this information and wishing to effect any transaction in any security discussed herein should do so through BofAS and/or MLPF&S and not such foreign affiliates. Hong Kong recipients of this information should contact Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Limited in respect of any matters relating to dealing in securities or provision of specific advice on securities or any other matters arising from, or in connection with, this information. Singapore recipients of this information should contact Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this information. For clients that are not accredited investors, expert investors or institutional investors Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd accepts full responsibility for the contents of this information distributed to such clients in Singapore.
General Investment Related Disclosures:
Taiwan Readers: Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to transact in any securities or other financial instrument. No part of this report may be used or reproduced or quoted in any manner whatsoever in Taiwan by the press or any other person without the express written consent of BofA Securities.
This document provides general information only, and has been prepared for, and is intended for general distribution to, BofA Securities clients. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instrument or any derivative related to such securities or instruments (e.g., options, futures, warrants, and contracts for differences). This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of, and is not directed to, any specific person(s). This document and its content do not constitute, and should not be considered to constitute, investment advice for purposes of ERISA, the US tax code, the Investment Advisers Act or otherwise. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Any decision to purchase or subscribe for securities in any offering must be based solely on existing public information on such security or the information in the prospectus or other offering document issued in connection with such offering, and not on this document.
Securities and other financial instruments referred to herein, or recommended, offered or sold by BofA Securities, are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution (including, Bank of America, N.A.). Investments in general and, derivatives, in particular, involve numerous risks, including, among others, market risk, counterparty default risk and liquidity risk. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. Digital assets are extremely speculative, volatile and are largely unregulated. In some cases, securities and other financial instruments may be difficult to value or sell and reliable information about the value or risks related to the security or financial instrument may be difficult to obtain. Investors should note that income from such securities and other financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that price or value of such securities and instruments may rise or fall and, in some cases, investors may lose their entire principal investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Levels and basis for taxation may change.
BofA Securities is aware that the implementation of the ideas expressed in this report may depend upon an investor's ability to "short" securities or other financial instruments and that such action may be limited by regulations prohibiting or restricting "shortselling" in many jurisdictions. Investors are urged to seek advice regarding the applicability of such regulations prior to executing any short idea contained in this report.
Certain investment strategies and financial instruments discussed herein may only be appropriate for consideration in accounts qualified for high risk investment.
Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or financial instrument mentioned in this report. Investors in such securities and instruments effectively assume currency risk.
BofAS or one of its affiliates is a regular issuer of traded financial instruments linked to securities that may have been recommended in this report. BofAS or one of its affiliates may, at any time, hold a trading position (long or short) in the securities and financial instruments discussed in this report.
BofA Securities, through business units other than BofA Global Research, may have issued and may in the future issue trading ideas or recommendations that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. Such ideas or recommendations may reflect different time frames, assumptions, views and analytical methods of the persons who prepared them, and BofA Securities is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this information.
In the event that the recipient received this information pursuant to a contract between the recipient and BofAS for the provision of research services for a separate fee, and in connection therewith BofAS may be deemed to be acting as an investment adviser, such status relates, if at all, solely to the person with whom BofAS has contracted directly and does not extend beyond the delivery of this report (unless otherwise agreed specifically in writing by BofAS). If such recipient uses the services of BofAS in connection with the sale or purchase of a security referred to herein, BofAS may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person. BofAS is and continues to act solely as a broker-dealer in connection with the execution of any transactions, including transactions in any securities referred to herein.
Copyright and General Information:
​Copyright 2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved. iQdatabase® is a registered service mark of Bank of America Corporation. This information is prepared for the use of BofA Securities clients and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of BofA Securities. This document and its content is provided solely for informational purposes and cannot be used for training or developing artificial intelligence (AI) models or as an input in any AI application (collectively, an AI tool). Any attempt to utilize this document or any of its content in connection with an AI tool without explicit written permission from BofA Global Research is strictly prohibited. BofA Global Research utilizes AI, including machine learning and other technologies, to enhance the services we provide to our clients. These technologies assist our analysts in various aspects of their work, including but not limited to data analysis, content extraction, content creation, data aggregation and summarization and identifying relevant information from diverse sources. All AI-driven processes are subject to review by BofA Global Research employees. BofA Global Research information is distributed simultaneously to internal and client websites and other portals by BofA Securities and is not publicly-available material. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion, or information contained herein (including any investment recommendations, estimates or price targets) without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of BofA Securities.
Materials prepared by BofA Global Research personnel are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BofA Securities, including investment banking personnel. BofA Securities has established information barriers between BofA Global Research and certain business groups. As a result, BofA Securities does not disclose certain client relationships with, or compensation received from, such issuers. To the extent this material discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this material. BofA Global Research personnel's knowledge of legal proceedings in which any BofA Securities entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving issuers mentioned in this material is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BofA Securities in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings.
This information has been prepared independently of any issuer of securities mentioned herein and not in connection with any proposed offering of securities or as agent of any issuer of any securities. None of BofAS any of its affiliates or their research analysts has any authority whatsoever to make any representation or warranty on behalf of the issuer(s). BofA Global Research policy prohibits research personnel from disclosing a recommendation, investment rating, or investment thesis for review by an issuer prior to the publication of a research report containing such rating, recommendation or investment thesis.
Any information relating to sustainability in this material is limited as discussed herein and is not intended to provide a comprehensive view on any sustainability claim with respect to any issuer or security.
Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional.
The information herein (other than disclosure information relating to BofA Securities and its affiliates) was obtained from various sources and we do not guarantee its accuracy. This information may contain links to third-party websites. BofA Securities is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. Content contained on such third-party websites is not part of this information and is not incorporated by reference. The inclusion of a link does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with BofA Securities. Access to any third-party website is at your own risk, and you should always review the terms and privacy policies at third-party websites before submitting any personal information to them. BofA Securities is not responsible for such terms and privacy policies and expressly disclaims any liability for them.
All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. BofA Securities is under no obligation to update this information and BofA Securities ability to publish information on the subject issuer(s) in the future is subject to applicable quiet periods. You should therefore assume that BofA Securities will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained herein.
Subject to the quiet period applicable under laws of the various jurisdictions in which we distribute research reports and other legal and BofA Securities policy-related restrictions on the publication of research reports, fundamental equity reports are produced on a regular basis as necessary to keep the investment recommendation current.
Certain outstanding reports or investment opinions relating to securities, financial instruments and/or issuers may no longer be current. Always refer to the most recent research report relating to an issuer prior to making an investment decision.
In some cases, an issuer may be classified as Restricted or may be Under Review or Extended Review. In each case, investors should consider any investment opinion relating to such issuer (or its security and/or financial instruments) to be suspended or withdrawn and should not rely on the analyses and investment opinion(s) pertaining to such issuer (or its securities and/or financial instruments) nor should the analyses or opinion(s) be considered a solicitation of any kind. Sales persons and financial advisors affiliated with BofAS or any of its affiliates may not solicit purchases of securities or financial instruments that are Restricted or Under Review and may only solicit securities under Extended Review in accordance with firm policies.
Neither BofA Securities nor any officer or employee of BofA Securities accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this information.
Â
Research AnalystsLatAm FI/ FX Strategy & Economics Claudio Irigoyen Global Economist BofAS Â David Hauner, CFA >> Global EM FI/FX Strategist MLI (UK) Â Carlos Capistran LatAm and Canada Economist BofAS Â David Beker >> Bz Econ/FI & LatAm EQ Strategy Merrill Lynch (Brazil) Â Jane Brauer Sovereign Debt FI Strategist BofAS Â Natacha Perez Brazil Economist Merrill Lynch (Brazil) Â Sebastian Rondeau Southern Cone & Venz Economist BofAS Â Alexander Muller Andean(ex-Ven) Carib Economist BofAS Â Lucas Martin, CFA Sovereign Debt FI Strategist BofAS Â Gustavo Mendes Brazil Economist Merrill Lynch (Brazil) Â Pedro Diaz Caribbean Economist BofAS Â Ezequiel Aguirre LatAm FI/FX Strategist BofAS Â Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. |
| Timestamp: 11 May 2026 03:01PM EDT |
| Terms of Use Privacy & Security: GBAM GWIM Cookie Policy GBAM Digital Privacy Notice GDPR Privacy Notice |