The RIC Report

Gridlock speeds up the tax clock

Authored By
Analyst Name Research Investment Committee
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Jared Woodard
Analyst Email jared.woodard@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment & ETF Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 2600
Analyst Name John Glascock
Analyst Email john.glascock@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment & ETF Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 3402
Analyst Name Phoebe Block
Analyst Email phoebe.block@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment & ETF Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 241 5941
Report Details
15 October 2024 Corrected Investment Strategy Global

The RIC Report

Gridlock speeds up the tax clock

Authored By
Analyst Name Research Investment Committee
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Name Jared Woodard
Analyst Email jared.woodard@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment & ETF Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 2600
Analyst Name John Glascock
Analyst Email john.glascock@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment & ETF Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 855 3402
Analyst Name Phoebe Block
Analyst Email phoebe.block@bofa.com
Analyst Designation Investment & ETF Strategist
Analyst Region BofAS
Analyst Phone +1 646 241 5941
Report Details
15 October 2024 Corrected Investment Strategy Global
Glossary
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Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financial resources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.

BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

 

 

Key takeaways
  • "Gridlock is good" may be less true today: expiration of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act could be the largest tax hike in history.
  • A tax expert answers 7 key questions about what's next. His view: taxes are unlikely to fall by much and planning is vital.
  • We highlight always-useful tax-aware strategies: use ETFs; equities > bonds; Prudent Yield > benchmarks; buybacks > dividends

The RIC Report

The fragile future of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act

Investors and firms like certainty. That's why they often don't mind electoral gridlock. But "gridlock is good" may not be true this year, if it means the expiration of tax relief from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). In this report, we survey possible tax changes and what they mean for portfolios.

Gridlock is good, unless it means higher taxes

TCJA expiration may mark the largest tax increase in history, worth $4.6tn. In some estimates, the top fifth of households could pay 2-6% more of their income in taxes; they account for almost 40% of US consumption. In our interview, David Kirk, a US Private National Tax partner from Ernst &Young explains what investors can do.

Key insights on the future of tax policy

1. Tax rates are unlikely to fall by much and the value of expert guidance has never been higher. There's a shortage of accountants and attorneys. 2. Higher capital gains rates are unlikely but watch out for an increase in the net investment income tax; 3. State & local tax (SALT) deduction caps will likely remain, but caps could be raised; 4. For planned future expenses, consider accelerating asset sales to lock in known tax rates.

Four trades for a tax-efficient portfolio

Tax-aware investment themes are always worth considering: 1. ETFs have saved $250bn in taxes since 1993; 2. In the long run, equities are more efficient than fixed income; 3. In bonds, our Prudent Yield theme offers 5.7% tax-adjusted yield vs. 3.5% for the US benchmark; 4. In stocks, efficient buybacks outperformed dividends by 2-3ppt/year.

This report is an overview; consult with a financial advisor or tax professional for advice.

 Exhibit 1: Expiration vs. extension of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) could be worth $7.6tn

US federal tax receipts from individuals, $bn

Exhibit 1: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Research Investment Committee, Penn Wharton Budget model, CBO estimates.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

The RIC Report

   The RIC Outlook

The 2024 election could cause substantial changes in tax policy. In this report, we survey each party's tax proposals and what that could mean for households and investors.

The Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA), signed on Jan 1, 2018, was the largest US tax overhaul since 1986. Household income rates fell for most brackets and the standard deduction, child tax credit, and estate exemptions all doubled. 

Why the TCJA matters for markets

Many provisions are set to expire in 2025 (Exhibit 5). If TCJA extensions aren't passed, individual tax rates would revert 1-4% higher to pre-2018 levels, the small business tax deduction would end, and the individual standard deduction would fall.

This could represent the largest tax hike in history (Exhibit 1). The aggregate tax burden on US households would rise by $2tn in the next five years and $4.6 trillion over the next decade (Exhibit 2).

  • Some simple math: US GDP is about $29tn per year. A $4.6tn tax hike over ten years equals $460bn/year, or 1.5% of GDP. GDP growth today is only about 2-3%.

 

  Exhibit 2:  TCJA expiration would be the largest tax rise in history

Projected change in receipts, sum of first 5 years, chained 2012 USD ($bn)

Exhibit 2: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Research Investment Committee, Bloomberg, Tempalski 2013, CBO, Penn Wharton

ATRA = American Taxpayer Relief Act (2012); TEFRA = Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act (1982); TCJA = Tax Cuts and Jobs Act ; Omnibus = Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (1993)

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 In the event of divided government, the future of tax policy depends on party compromise. BofA economists think that some TCJA provisions could be extended, at least temporarily, but expect little else would be done (see The Great Debates).

Investment implications for changing tax regimes

In this report, we aim to highlight investor implications for changing tax regimes based on published platforms from each political party. Our goal is to raise awareness about potential tax issues and how to invest accordingly. There are many variables that impact asset prices, and this report only looks at issues from a personal tax perspective.

This report should not be viewed as a tax guide or a view on which tax policies will eventually be adopted.

 Navigating the next tax regime

 To help us navigate the potential path of taxes after the 2024 US election, we solicited help from David Kirk, a US Private National Tax Partner at EY. Below are some key insights from our conversation, with excerpts edited for clarity.

  1. Who were the major beneficiaries of TCJA tax changes?

Main takeaway: there is a misconception is that all high-income households benefited from TCJA. But region, occupation, and source of income meant tax changes were felt differently.

Top earners saw the individual income tax rate fall from 39.6% to 37%, but caps on state and local tax (SALT) deductions and non-deductible investment expenses may have offset lower federal rates for some people.

  • Major beneficiaries: small business owners who use the 20% Qualified Business Income (QBI) 199(a) deduction to lower their tax rate further from 37% to 29.6% likely benefitted the most.

The lifetime exemption for estate and gift taxes was also meaningful. For example, a married couple could bequeath $25mn today with no tax liability. But waiting until 2026, when the TCJA estate tax provision is set to expire, could mean a $5mn tax liability.

  •  Minor beneficiaries: employees with high W-2 income paid lower federal taxes but, depending on region, saw lower SALT caps offset the benefit from lower rates.
  • Non-beneficiaries: TCJA was largely neutral for investors with no ordinary income who pay long-term capital gains, since capital gains rates didn't change.
  1. Based on current candidate proposals, how could tax policy change?

Main takeaway: compromise will likely be required in every election outcome. And, with tax rates already near 100-year lows, rates are unlikely to fall further (Exhibit 3).

In a gridlock or divided government scenario where an extension isn't passed, the CBO estimates a $4.6tn tax increase over ten years, or approximately $460bn/year.

  • Who's hardest hit if tax rates rise? The major beneficiaries (e.g., high income small business owners) who leverage the QBI deduction. Their tax rates could rise 33%, from 29.6% back to 39.6%.
  • Where does the tax revenue come from?  Although high-income households do have a lower propensity to spend, Mr. Kirk noted that higher taxes would probably prompt small business owners to respond with some combination of lower wages, lower capex, and slower hiring (Exhibit 4).

Changes in tax policies are not straightforward in a sweep scenario, either. Margins in Congress are expected to be narrow, which would require intra-party compromise.

  Exhibit 3:  Tax rates are unlikely to fall much further

Corporate & personal income taxes since 1909 (top tax bracket)

Exhibit 3: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Research Investment Committee, World Tax Database, Office of Tax Policy Research, IRS

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

  Exhibit 4:  Highest 20% of earners account for 39% of consumption

% of total US expenditure, highest and lowest quintiles

Exhibit 4: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Research Investment Committee, Haver

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

  1. Where do you see areas of potential policy overlap?

Main takeaway: there will likely be concessions around the deficit and policies meant to mollify certain constituencies. Exhibit 5 shows the key proposals from each party.

Preserving provisions like larger standard deductions and child tax credits would not be important for households paying the most taxes but could be extended as part of a compromise package. Democrats have also said they don't want to raise taxes on people making less than $400k per year, a possible area of compromise with GOP leaders.

Provisions like the 199A QBI small business deduction might not be extended at current levels but could have a lower cap with more stringent income limits.

 

  Exhibit 5:  Key provisions of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act and proposed changes from each political party

Summary of potential tax changes based on party platforms

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

   

TCJA current (extension)

TCJA expiry

Democrat proposals

Republican proposals

Standard deduction

2018 standard deduction doubled

Standard deduction halved vs today

Permanent extension for taxpayers earning < $400,000

Permanent extension, regardless of income

Individual tax rates

The TCJA lowered individual tax rates

Individual tax rates will revert to pre-TCJA levels.

Continue TCJA rates for taxpayers earning < $400,000

TCJA bracket sizes & tax rates made permanent

25% minimum income tax on high-net-worth taxpayers, including unrealized gains

SALT

Deduct up to $10,000 in state and local income

Deduct all eligible state and local income

Repeal or increase the SALT cap

Possibly raise the SALT cap

Estate and gift tax

Doubled estate and gift tax exclusion

Estate and gift tax exclusion amount will halve

Property transfer by gift / death are a capital gain realization event

Full repeal of the estate tax

Limit generation-skipping tax-exempt trusts

 

QBI

Pass-through entities get 20% QBI deduction

Taxed on individual income tax, no deduction

Will most likely be extended

Capital gains

 

 

Capital gains tax increase from 23.8% to 28-33% for households >$1mn

 

 

 

Tax carried interests as ordinary income

 

Retirement

 

 

Limit retirement account contributions for those with high income and large account balances

 

Corporate taxes

 

 

Raise corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%

Decrease corporate rate to 20%, potentially 15%

Tariffs

 

 

 

10% across the-board tariff, potentially more for some countries

Source: BofA Research Investment Committee, Thomson Reuters, Brookings Institute, Tax Policy Center

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

  1. What about other provisions? Do you expect any changes to capital gains?

Main takeaway: changes to the capital gains look relatively unlikely. On the other hand, the 3.8% net investment income surtax could be expanded.

  • Net investment income (NII): the current 3.8% NII tax, which was part of the Affordable Care Act, could be expanded as a 'pay-for'. This could be another area of natural compromise. Not much would change for investors with majority investment income who are already paying it. But transactions, such as the sale of a closely held business, could be newly required to pay.
  • Capital gains: Vice President Harris has suggested a 28% capital gains tax, while also raising the NII to 5%, which could bring the top capital gains rate to 33%. But Mr. Kirk notes she was not specific on whether the 28% was inclusive of NII or not.
  1. Do you envision any changes to state & local tax (SALT) deductions?

Main takeaway: little to no change-it's too expensive to uncap the SALT deductions entirely. The cap could be raised from $10k to somewhere between $25-50k.

Higher SALT deductions could help high-income W-2 employees, but things become more complicated as earnings rise and as business interests are considered. IRS notice 2020-75 (the "workaround notice") allows passthrough entities to pay state income taxes at the business level but get state tax credits that offset state income tax liability at the owner level. This benefits small business owners but not W-2 employees and could be an area of scrutiny.

  1. What are some general ideas for tax mitigation strategies?

Main takeaway: consulting an expert for your unique situation is the best course of action.

  • Tax-deferred accounts: if an investor has most of their money in IRAs or other tax-deferred vehicles, they'll probably just have to weather the storm and hope for the best. It's difficult to transfer money from these accounts in a tax-efficient way.
  • Tax-advantaged charitable gifts: an investor could make gifts and donations now to avoid higher taxes later. But large gifts must be considered in relation to how they would affect current lifestyle choices.
  • Spousal lifetime access trusts (SLATs): The TCJA doubled the estate tax exemption. If the provision expires, the exemption in 2026 will be about $14.3mn for married couples, compared to $28.6mn if the provision is extended.

One option to mitigate the liability could be to establish a SLAT where an investor can put assets (e.g., cash, marketable securities, real estate, etc.) into a trust and report it on their gift tax return. The SLAT gets assets out of the estate and uses their lifetime exemption, but spouses still have access to the funds if needed down the road. SLATs get complicated if the couple divorces. SLATs and other strategies require help from a qualified tax and/or legal professional.

  1.  How much time do investors have to make changes in portfolios?

 Main takeaway: investors may have a sense by the summer of 2025 which changes, if any, are likely to happen. If you were already planning to sell assets in 2026-2027, it could be better to do so in 2025 at lower known rates.

  • Summer is key: regardless of election outcome, if we get to June 2025 and little progress on a compromise has been made, expect some "unnatural" tax planning as investors scramble to salvage existing exemptions.
  • Consult an expert before the crunch: tax complexity is likely to rise. For example, adding income cliffs to tax provisions (i.e., $400k AGI cutoffs) will make planning more complex in an already-complicated TCJA environment. Many people haven't done anything with their estate plan to use their increased exemption-there could be a big squeeze in demand for planning at a time when the supply of accountants and attorneys is already constrained (Exhibit 6).

 

  Exhibit 6:  Number of accountants has fallen to 5-year lows

Total number of accountants and auditors in the US (mn)

Exhibit 6: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Research Investment Committee, BLS, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

  •  For planned spending & asset sales, consider starting now: an investor already planning to sell assets in the next few years to fund a major expense may consider locking in lower known rates in 2025.
A simple framework for investors if taxes rise

Exhibit 7 illustrates the potential breakeven points for investors considering selling assets ahead of higher capital gains rates.

Take, for example, an asset worth $100,000 with 0 basis expected to grow at 6% per year on average. In this hypothetical scenario, an investor has two choices: sell today with capital gains at 23.8% or hold and sell at some point in the future when capital gains are 33%.

If an investor waits to sell, they'd have to hold the asset for at least eight years to counteract the drag from higher capital gains. Assets with higher expected rates of return can be sold sooner.

 

  Exhibit 7:  When taxes rise, longer holding periods are required

Spread between selling at lower tax rates and re-investing or holding an asset and selling when rates are higher under different return scenarios

Exhibit 7: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Research Investment Committee. Note: hypothetical example when "lower tax rates" = 23.8% and "higher tax rates" = 33%.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 Five ways to boost tax efficiency

We see long-term value in simple, tax-aware investing advice. In the March RIC Report, we highlighted five examples for investors looking to make portfolios more tax efficient (for full details, see The RIC Report: Tax-efficient upgrades hiding in plain sight).

Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. For more information see the appendix.

  1. Own tax-efficient wrappers: ETFs > mutual funds

For the same investment, taxable events mean mutual funds cost investors 1.3% per year vs. just 0.4% for ETFs. An investor who bought $100,000 of an S&P 500 ETF in October 2013 and held through today would have accumulated $359,000, compared to just $316,000 if the investment was in an S&P 500 mutual fund (Exhibit 8). We estimate that ETFs have helped save investors $250bn in taxes since 1993. See our primer Exchange Traded Funds: Primer: the relentless hunt for diversification for more. 

  1. Maximize the power of compounding: stocks > bonds

>90% of fixed income total returns comes from coupon payments which can be taxable at the highest rates. Most equity payouts are qualified dividend income (QDI), with a max rate of 20%. Paying taxes on distributions every year blunts the magic of compounding Each year, Treasury gains lose 2.4% to taxes vs. 0.6% from stocks (Exhibit 9). Equities have outperformed bonds and cash by 6.7-8.5% a year, net of taxes, for nearly 50 years.

  Exhibit 8:  ETF savings stack up over the long run

Hypothetical example: $100,000 invested in S&P 500 funds

Exhibit 8: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Research Investment Committee, Investment Company Institute, Moussawi et al. (2022), Bloomberg; ETF = SPY US Equity, mutual fund = SWPPX US Equity, relative to SPTR index. See appendix for tax disclosures.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

  Exhibit 9:  Stock payouts are more tax efficient than bond coupons

Total return gross & net of taxes for different assets; # in parenthesis = annual tax drag

Exhibit 9: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Research Investment Committee, Bloomberg, ICE Data Services, LLC. *We assume a 37% tax rate for US Treasuries & cash; 20% for S&P 500. Note: US Treasuries=G8O2; Cash=G0O1. See appendix for tax disclosures.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

  1. Prioritize tax-advantaged yield: Prudent Yield > US Aggregate Bond Index

Fixed income investors have tax efficient options-our Prudent Yield strategy offers 5.7% tax-adjusted yield vs 3.5% for US Aggregate Bond benchmark.

  1. Opt for low-friction compounding: buybacks > dividends

Buybacks are more tax efficient than dividends. Even if dividends are qualified, payouts are taxed at the end of every year where they're received. An investor who pays taxes on reinvested dividends has less money to compound every year. The S&P 500 buyback factor has led dividend factors by 200-380bps per year since 1994 and has led the broad index by 2,500% and outperformance persists net of taxes (Exhibit 11 - see Exchange Traded Funds: Banking on buybacks).

Bonus: proactively seek tax efficiency in existing holdings

Investors should audit portfolios to understand where tax costs can be lowered. Many ETFs take advantage of QDI & return of capital for tax efficient distribution.

  • MLPs (MLPX, MLPA) distributions are often treated as return of capital, making them tax-exempt in the year received.
  • US sector funds (IYK, XLU) dividends could be 100% QDI. The same is true of broad equity funds that most already own like SPY or VOO.
  • Closed end funds: muni funds (NMZ, MUA, MFM) payouts are tax-exempt and look attractive in a Fed cutting cycle. Tax-advantaged funds (AGD, ETG, GDV, HTD) are equity funds that offer 7% yields, sheltered by nearly 60% QDI on average (see Closed End Funds: Fed cuts & credit spreads say buy).

  Exhibit 10:  HY munis >the aggregate bond index by 240% net of taxes

Hypothetical growth of $1000 in US Agg gross & net of taxes vs HY munis

Exhibit 10: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg, ICE Data Services, LLC. Note: US Agg = US00; HY munis = LMEHTR. "Fully taxed" assumes US aggregate bond coupon payments are taxed at 37% top ordinary rate and HY munis coupons are not taxed. See appendix for tax disclosures.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

  Exhibit 11:  Buybacks have been most tax-efficient capital return factor

Cumulative returns of different S&P 500 factors, net of taxes* (%)

Exhibit 11: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg. *We assume a 20% tax rate on dividends assessed QDI.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 Dynamic Prudent Yield

The BofA Dynamic Prudent Yield strategy remains fully invested. This year on average Prudent Yield sector ETFs have outperformed the US Aggregate Bond Index by +3.4% and US Treasuries by +6.1% YTD and have an average 5.7% tax adjusted yield today.

For details on the Dynamic Prudent Yield Strategy including the full Appendix see: The RIC Report: A new bond strategy for the end of 60/40. Monthly updates can be received via email immediately after publishing by subscribing to "The ETF Angle". Full ETF coverage can be found on our Full ETF coverage can be found on our ETF Research Library.

Exhibit 12: Dynamic Prudent Yield remains fully invested

Historical allocation of backtested Dynamic Prudent Yield Strategy, 2022-2024

Exhibit 12: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA ETF Research, Bloomberg, ICE Data Services LLC. Note: weights rounded from 16.7%. This performance is backtested and does not represent the actual performance of any account or fund. Back-tested performance depicts the theoretical (not actual) performance of a particular strategy over the time period indicated. No representation is being made that any actual portfolio is likely to have achieved returns similar to those shown herein. See appendix for more details

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 ETF Valuation

 

September median P/E rises to highest level since Dec '21

  • The median equity ETF in our coverage continues to hover around 15.5x, roughly +0.7SD above average.

 

  • India and financials composite valuations remain above the +2SD threshold. Growth, aerospace and defense, semiconductors, and large caps are also expensive relative to history.

 

  • Only 9/51 subcategories trade at a discount to long term averages, down from 10/51 last month.

 

  • Utilities valuation continues to rise, reaching +1.2 standard deviations above average. Other yield-focused equities like dividends and buybacks are also becoming more expensive.

 

  • Despite its recent rally, China remains below its historical average valuation. Japan's valuation continues to cool from extremes earlier this year.

 

 

  Exhibit 13:  Equity ETF valuations chops around +0.5SD vs history

Median 12 month forward P/E ratio across BofA equity ETF coverage

Exhibit 13: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA ETF Research, Factset. Note: Median calculated using12m fwd P/E ratios for all equity ETFs in our coverage.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Exhibit 14: Equity ETF valuations by category

ETF valuation ratios and composite score (lower is better)

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

      

Sub-category

Composite Valuation (stdev)

12m fwd P/E

12m fwd P/B

12m fwd EV/EBITDA

12m fwd P/FCF

 

Top-rated fund

Bottom-rated fund

Link

US Equity Sector

Communication Services

-0.09

19.95

2.80

9.28

16.46

 

XLC

IYZ

Getting so defensive

Energy

0.03

12.28

1.89

6.26

12.39

 

XLE

PXI

ETFs for the cyclical extremes

Real Estate

0.58

17.82

2.78

18.68

na

 

XLRE

SCHH

Getting so defensive

Consumer Staples

0.86

19.64

4.88

13.12

22.70

 

IYK

RSPS

Getting so defensive

Consumer Discretionary

0.87

22.85

6.71

13.46

24.10

 

VCR

IYC

ETFs for the cyclical extremes

Utilities

1.22

18.48

2.12

11.89

n.a.

 

XLU

RSPU

Getting so defensive

Materials

1.63

19.92

2.77

11.20

25.91

 

FXZ

IYM

ETFs for the cyclical extremes

Health Care

1.71

18.16

4.64

15.88

20.28

 

XLV

PTH

Getting so defensive

Industrials

1.81

21.83

5.40

14.38

23.89

 

XLI

FXR

ETFs for the cyclical extremes

Information Technology

1.87

27.69

7.58

18.91

30.20

 

XLK

QTEC

ETFs for the cyclical extremes

Financials

2.12

15.64

1.98

na

na

 

XLF

FXO

ETFs for the cyclical extremes

Single Factor

International Dividend

-0.25

11.13

1.53

7.59

15.03

 

VYMI

PID

Going global: markets to rent & markets to own

Dividend

0.74

16.48

3.24

11.67

20.10

 

SCHD

LVHD

A deep dive on dividend funds

Buybacks

0.87

14.47

2.95

9.98

15.94

 

DIVB

IPKW

Banking on buybacks

Value

1.38

15.97

2.66

11.17

19.39

 

VTV

RPV

Initiating coverage of value ETFs

Quality

1.62

20.20

5.60

13.86

22.12

 

COWZ

QLC

One factor to rule them all

Growth

1.93

28.98

9.58

19.21

30.95

 

SCHG

IVW

Growth for contrarians

US Size

Small Cap Equity

0.33

21.33

1.91

10.81

23.65

 

CALF

FYX

Shopping small

Mid Cap

0.57

16.95

2.55

11.39

20.49

 

SCHM

IJH

The Sweet Middle

Large Cap Non Market Cap

1.13

17.93

3.48

12.46

21.37

 

FNDX

LRGF

The Sweet Middle

Large Cap Market Cap

1.91

22.17

4.79

15.02

25.70

 

IVV

OEF

The Sweet Middle

Thematic

Clean Energy

0.03

19.00

1.59

10.66

na

 

ICLN

SMOG

Valuations up, catalysts down: Neutral clean energy

Artificial Intelligence

0.48

27.08

3.83

16.05

31.88

 

AIQ

DTEC

Some AI ETFs are smarter than others

ESG Broad

1.03

18.37

3.53

13.11

23.99

 

VOTE

ESGE

ESG ETFs get a better model and a VOTE

Water

1.07

23.39

3.48

14.12

na

 

FIW

PIO

A cheap call on scarcity: just add water

Int'l Equity

Latin America

-0.93

8.92

1.45

5.00

10.54

 

EWW

ECH

All the global growth you don't own

China

-0.35

9.96

1.14

9.36

15.58

 

KBA

EWH

Going global: markets to rent & markets to own

Japan

0.33

13.73

1.29

9.68

23.53

 

DXJ

JPXN

Going global: markets to rent & markets to own

Developed Markets ex-US

0.40

13.49

1.61

8.95

19.69

 

HEFA

RODM

All the global growth you don't own

Emerging Markets

0.42

12.51

1.62

8.62

18.64

 

EMGF

DBEM

Going global: markets to rent & markets to own

Global ex-US

0.49

13.48

1.65

8.99

19.76

 

VEU

ACWX

Going global: markets to rent & markets to own

Canada

0.49

15.22

1.87

10.09

21.58

 

FLCA

EWC

Going global: markets to rent & markets to own

Europe

0.56

13.19

1.81

8.97

18.90

 

FEZ

FDD

Going global: markets to rent & markets to own

EM ex China

1.52

13.53

1.87

8.14

20.74

 

EMXC

XCEM

All the global growth you don't own

India

2.30

23.71

3.74

15.45

36.71

 

EPI

INDY

The rise and rise of India

Industry

Nuclear

-0.80

33.28

0.39

13.52

na

 

URA

NLR

Have your yellowcake & eat it too

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

-0.47

10.10

1.21

4.31

9.39

 

PXE

XOP

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

-0.30

11.27

1.36

5.69

10.71

 

OIH

XES

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Banks

-0.14

11.38

1.09

na

na

 

KBE

IAT

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Gold Miners

-0.12

15.09

1.76

6.76

21.32

 

RING

GDXJ

Two catalysts for gold

MLP

0.18

12.06

2.60

9.10

11.56

 

MLPX

TPYP

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Metals & Mining

0.20

15.03

1.51

7.08

16.13

 

XME

REMX

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Retail

0.28

22.37

3.69

9.70

17.06

 

XRT

PEJ

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Pharmaceuticals

0.33

15.90

3.09

11.80

14.59

 

PPH

PJP

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Homebuilders

0.40

14.38

2.80

10.31

19.18

 

ITB

XHB

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Health Care Equipment & Services

0.75

26.97

4.20

18.43

27.92

 

IHI

XHE

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Software & Services

1.08

33.45

7.85

22.05

32.29

 

IGV

IGPT

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Biotechnology

1.10

na

4.89

8.52

483.93

 

BBH

PBE

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Insurance

1.32

11.70

1.59

na

na

 

KIE

KBWP

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Semiconductor

1.85

26.50

5.21

17.23

36.78

 

SMH

XSD

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Aerospace & Defense

1.91

34.92

5.30

17.31

31.67

 

PPA

XAR

Identifying value in US industry ETFs

Source: BofA ETF Research, Factset. Note: All valuation metrics are based on next twelve month (NTM) I/B/E/S estimates. "Composite Valuation" is the market-cap weighted average standard deviation of each fund's P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA, and P/FCF ratios. A higher number indicates that funds are more expensive relative to history.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

  Macro & Econ Highlights

Access China & Fed Cuts at a discount with LatAm stocks

Markets across Latin America trade over one standard deviation below historical valuation. Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Colombia's stock indexes trade close to trough valuations, even with major catalysts. Dovish rate cuts in the United States and a stimulus package in China bode well for the commodity exposed countries (see report for stock screens). Valuations suggest that a soft-landing is well appreciated in US equities, it has yet to materially increase valuations in Latin America.

To capture this trend, ILF is our top-rated broad Latin America ETF. BofA Latin America investment strategists have also compiled a list of the top 10 Latin America ideas for this quarter.

China stimulus is a start, but not a salve

Up 30% since September 10th, China's easing measures and monetary stimulus have sparked investor demand, lifting emerging and developed economies alike. Our China Strategists are cautious: stimulus alone may not be enough to disabuse China from its own inertia. Sentiment may have improved, but sustained growth will require follow up measures and a shift in market incentives. According to Helen Qiao, market systems are the root of China's economic apathy, not necessarily a lack of liquidity or demand. Investors that are looking to tactically trade Chinese equities can refer to Winnie Wu's top picks across impacted sectors.

Portfolios may be more exposed to China than expected. US domiciled industrials and materials names also offer exposure to China. Andrew Obin points out that China represents 7% of sales in his industrials coverage on average. He identified four top picks for US based industrials that could benefit from a China rebound. Separately, Savita Subramanian has raised materials from marketweight to overweight on China exposure. Once a risk, China growth could now be a driver for US materials stocks.

Exhibit 15: MSCI China index performance

MSCI China consolidated at higher lows, and is re-testing the mid-May high

Exhibit 15: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Exhibit 16: Financial easing can be powerful on markets

A very strong rally in 4Q14-1H15, driven by liquidity/leverage

Exhibit 16: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: Bloomberg, NBS

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Don't lose focus: macro expectations are split

In last month's RIC report we highlighted that Savita Subramanian's regime indicator shifted to downturn (see Sector Focus Point), a signal to lower risk and move up in quality. This month, despite recent positive data prints, BofA's Industrial Momentum Indicator continued to pull back. The indicator usually leads industrial revisions and PMI. The indicator turned over in early spring and has precipitously fallen in recent months. At the same time, BofA's Global Earnings Revision ratio fell in September, treading only slightly above its all-time historical average. Michael Hartnett's Bull/Bear indicator is close to average, but he continues to emphasize the confluence of bubble conditions. Bulls could easily retreat as soon as recession or stagflationary signals emerge.

Meanwhile, Nigel Tupper's Market Trough Monitor suggests there's more to go. Four strategies experienced large moves versus history in the prior month, triggering a 'trough' signal. There have only been 13 previous trough signals since 1996 and the MSCI World Index averaged 28% in the subsequent 12 months, Typically, the trough signal is triggered following a selloff. That's not the case now but, between the China rally and broadening performance within and across regions, it does come at a period of some sizeable moves and market rotation.

Markets were offsides on oil in October

Earlier this month, Francisco Blanch highlighted the market's bleak view on oil fundamentals. Sentiment was clear: investors were shorting oil at levels not seen in the last decade. Bearish sentiment coalesced around concerns of a trade war, an OPEC price war, and signs of weak Chinese oil demand. Blanch warned, however, that risks are more balanced than investors are pricing in. Secular drivers include accelerating productivity, growth of artificial intelligence, and geopolitical risk.

He rightfully anticipated the imminent possibility of geopolitical risk driving oil prices and short squeezing bears. Michael Hartnett also identified commodities among key contrarian trades. Since October 1st, oil is up 6%. Investors can use ETFs to gain market access to commodities. Top fund strategies (outlined here) seek to maximize roll returns.

  Exhibit 17:  Net managed money oil positioning

Looking at CFTC data, we note that spec oil futures positions recently dropped to record lows …

Exhibit 17: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Note: includes benchmark WTI, Brent, Heating Oil, RBOB, and Gasoil contracts. Source: Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

  Exhibit 18:  BofA Model Trend Following (CTA) Oil Position

… while our systematic flows analysis of CTAs suggests that trend followers seem poised to keep shorting

Exhibit 18: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Our model's COMEX Gold 100 Troy Ounces Future position is currently 1.29 standard deviations long relative to history. Over the past year our model's max long position was 2.11 standard deviations long on 01-Apr-24, and its max short position was 1.89 standard deviations short on 12-Oct-23.

Source: BofA Global Research. Data as of 13-Sep-2024.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

At long last, Fed easing

Following a roaring 50bp start to the Fed's cutting cycle, our US economics team expects another 25bp rate cut in November. In their latest estimates, they lower their expectations for cuts given the strength of September's data. At the same time, BofA's FX, Rates, and Commodities team now expects the 10Y yield to end 2024 at 3.75%.

In equities, Savita Subramanian points out that 8 out of the 9 last easing cycles occurred when earnings were falling. Today, profits are accelerating, rendering "Fed cut playbooks" less useful. In equities, she highlights large cap value and cyclicals. In fixed income, BofA Fixed Income analysts highlight this month that rate cuts are supportive for high yield and loan fundamentals. In commodities, gold is usually inversely related to rates, but central bank buying remains as the main price driver. For more sector and asset specific views across asset classes, TJ Thornton recently published a compilation report with ideas from across the department.

 

 

 Equity Highlights

The tale of two storms: Insurance stocks get choppy

Despite catastrophic losses in the southeast United States, Hurricane Helen should be a minor event for insurance names. This is partially due to the timing of the hurricane: payouts will not be completed in time for 3Q24 earnings. Large insurers like Progressive will begin reporting mid-October. In terms of severity, BofA analysts estimate this Hurricane Helen will cost insurers less than $10bn dollars. In context, Hurricane Michael cost insurers roughly $15bn, while Idalia was in the $2-4bn range. Finally, the majority of the damage from Helen is due to flooding, which is not covered by most private homeowners' insurance.

The impacts of Milton remain less known. Meteorologists predicted a strong US hurricane season, but investors positioned for only mild impacts. As a result, investors should anticipate near term price volatility. Josh Shanker sees price dips as opportunities to add exposure to reinsurers So far, insurance names have slightly underperformed the S&P 500, but upside risks remain going into earnings season.

Consumers hunt for value brought straight to their door

In the 2025 eCommerce survey, Justin Post finds that consumers are increasingly focused on value in response to a cooling economy and election headwinds. Consumables and online grocery are gaining traction in eCommerce as consumers are going bargain hunting. Overall, the big 5 retailers continue to gain share as delivery speed and customer experience improve.

While grocery and staples drive growth in eCommerce, hardline retail should get a lift from lower rates. Lower mortgages and auto loans could spill over into home improvement, furniture, and auto parts in the next 12 months. Robby Ohmes finds that hardlines outperform in the 12 months following the first rate cut.

  Exhibit 19:  What is the most important feature in an eCommerce platform?

33% of respondents (+4pts y/y) value low prices most in an eCommerce platform

Exhibit 19: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research survey respondents

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Exhibit 20: What changes are you making in response to changes in the economy (inflation, wages, employment) and/or the upcoming presidential election?

62% of consumers are seeking lower priced goods

Exhibit 20: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research survey respondents

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Remaining bullish on miners after strong 3Q24

BofA Metals and Mining analysts slightly adjusted their POs this month, marking to market after a strong 2Q for the industry. They remain bullish on copper, aluminum, gold, and silver given near term catalysts like China stimulus and rate cuts. In the long term, they still see a secular case for metals rooted in decarbonization and growth in India. Top picks can be found in the report "Growth has become a luxury itam".

In a review of 2Q, Lawson Winder notes that mid-tier gold miners outperformed in 3Q24. Gold is reached all-time highs, and silver is only slightly off of its 2024 peak, but miners have lagged the same performance on average. In the best cases, some miners are up >100% year to date, while underperforming names are down as much as -45%. Overall, they remain bullish.

Luxury retail could slow dramatically in '25

Profits are treading water for most S&P industries, but luxury stands apart from the rest. Ashley Wallace recently lowered her luxury goods EPS by -17%, 12% below consensus. In her view, cyclical and simultaneous weakness from the US, Europe, and China justifies this change. Data suggests that consumer behavior should continue to normalize into 2025. Her ratings now reflect a prolonged slowdown compared to what most analysts are anticipating.

Wallace expects 3Q revenue to be down -2% year over year, the weakest revenue growth since the pandemic. While the global slowdown will weigh on performance, she sees opportunity for brands to drive volumes and in-store traffic through creativity and novelty products, like the case in 2016. In her view, investors should look to defensive quality in the second half of the year, top picks can be found in the report.

Exhibit 21: US, European & Japanese consumer to normalise

Luxury spending relative to 2019, split by nationality cluster

Exhibit 21: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BAC internal data, BofA estimates

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Exhibit 22: Chinese consumer demand slowed slightly in 2Q vs 1Q

Revenue growth from the Chinese consumer, LVMH F&L and Burberry, YoY, Dec YE

Exhibit 22: For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global research estimates, Company Commentary

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

REITs are under-owned despite strong 2025 catalysts

Following the BofA Global Real Estate conference, Jeff Spector sees three near term catalysts that should support outperformance: 1.) Lower interest rates; 2.) A soft landing; and 3.) uncrowded positioning. In a comprehensive report, Spector compiles takeaways from a multitude of real estate sectors from private real estate to data centers.

 

BofA Global Research house view

 Exhibit 23: BofA Global Research House View

Near-term outlook of our BofA macro & market strategists across key regions and asset classes

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Core view

(3-6 months)

Rationale

Investment Strategy

 

Bearish

 

 

 

 

Big picture 2020s secular views…bonds are in an early secular bear market (driven by debt, deficits, reverse-globalization, inflation), commodities in early secular bull (driven by debt, deficits, reverse-globalization, inflation & AI & climate change), stocks (US) in late secular bull (no change in leadership since '09, no recession to change it, valuations inconsistent with new bull), and gold in early secular bull (alternative to US dollar, like crypto = hedge against "bear market in institutional trust"). But cyclical view is that "4Ps" of Positioning, Politics, Policy, and Profits means H2 reversal of ABB " Anything But Bonds trade…"long the long bond" (30-year Treasury best cyclical hedge for H2 hard landing) and "sell the 1st rate cut" for credit & stocks. Q3 unwind of ABB trade most positive for UK FTSE, EM stocks, and distressed leverage (REITs & small cap).

Economics

 

Bearish

 

 

 

 

Earlier this week, Chair Powell commented that the Fed will probably cut by 25bp each in November and December if the data evolve as expected. Given the strength in the recent data flow, we shift our November call from a 50bp cut to 25bp. The rest of our Fed path is unchanged: 25bp cuts per meeting until March, and then 25bp per quarter until end-2025. So our terminal rate projection moves up by 25bp to 3.0-3.25%. The risks to this figure are to the upside, given the string of data pointing to stronger productivity growth.

Rates & FX

 

Neutral

 

 

 

Likelihood of a Fed 50bp cut has been reduced but key data awaits. We expect the Fed to be more reactive to downside vs upside data surprises, especially when recalibrating. Investors should keep looking to add duration on dips (especially 10y 3.8-4%). To understand the cutting trough, investors can simplify across 2/3/4% policy trough scenarios. Until hard landing risks fade further, we expect a trough around 3%. If market prices <30bps of cuts for the Nov FOMC, we would recommend receiving Nov FOMC OIS. Clients should fade low odds of 50bp move given data & time before meeting.

 

Region

Ticker

 

Rationale

Equities

MXWD

Neutral

 

North America

MXNA

Neutral

Savita Subramanian targets 5400 on the S&P 500 by YE24. US corporates have adapted to non-zero hurdle rates, some inflation and a more rational market backdrop, and margins have remained surprisingly resilient. She believes the profits cycle has inflected higher and forecasts EPS of $250 (+13% YoY) in 2024, followed by $275 (+10% YoY) in 2025. Election years have been positive for equities and bipartisan support on maintaining defense spending as well as near-shoring / US manufacturing and jobs are pro-cyclical. Despite elevated sentiment, investors are only selectively bullish, skewed toward secular growth. We are overweight Financials, Materials, Real Estate, Utilities and Consumer Discretionary, and are underweight Tech, Health Care, and Consumer Staples.

Eurozone

MXEM

Bearish

Sebastian Raedler expects a continued cooling in US macro data, particularly in the labour market, to drive a slowdown in global growth. This is set to translate into widening risk premia and downgrades to EPS expectations, with the resulting drag on equities only partly offset by falling real bond yields (i.e. lower discount rate for equities) on the back of more dovish central banks. As a consequence, he retains his negative stance on European equities, with his macro projections implying nearly 15% downside for the Stoxx 600 to 450 in Q2.

UK

MXGB

Bearish

Sebastian Raedler remains negative on UK relative to European equities, given his expectation for energy sector underperformance, with energy a key overweight in the UK index. On an absolute basis, he sees scope for the FTSE 100 to decline to a low of 7,020 by Q2 (15% downside from current levels).

Japan

MXJP

Bullish

Masashi Akutsu believes the market correction could be temporary, similar to what we saw in the 2021 LDP election. He expects the market to recover in earnest in November, thanks to more earnings catalysts and macro clarity. Masashi also highlights three areas for stock selection under the Ishiba administration: (1) construction names in the short term, if the focus is on disaster prevention and mitigation policies, (2) renewable energy-related names, and (3) defense-related names, given the proactive stance on defense policies.

Fixed Income

GFIM

Neutral

 

Government

W0G1

Neutral

keep buying dips. We think levels with 10y at 3.8-4% are attractive to add. US labor & inflation data moderating & Fed more sensitive to downside vs upside data surprises. Our preference remains to add duration in the UST belly (5y).

Investment Grade

G0LC

Neutral

US elections are 54 days away. Historically IG bond index spreads actually tightened into US elections outside of recessions. Despite this benign historical spread performance uncertainties certainly rise. VIX increased in each of the prior six US elections from mid-September to the election day, and VIX futures are pricing another increase in 2024. US credit investors have a wide range of views on the election impact, but on net they lean more in the negative direction. Our economists and rate strategists highlight risk of lower US growth and lower Treasury yields, which would be negative for IG spreads. Concerns about higher tariffs could negatively impact more global sectors especially with exposure to China, such as Tech, Chemicals and Autos.

High Yield

HW00

Neutral

Our CSI dropped another point to 32.7% - a new post-2021low, but still a good distance away from normal cyclical troughs around 10%. The ongoing improvement in the CSI warrants another 0.25% notch down in our default forecast, to 2.0% par-weighted next-12m, and our spread target to 365bp (-10bp). We favor mid-higher quality as our top overweight spot, which trades within the 250-300bp range.

EM debt

DXEM

Neutral

Corp: Neutral positioning. Our base case is that negative net issuance continues to support historically tight spreads (0th to 10th percentile over 3yrs). Given tight spread levels, a slightly defensive lean via shorter duration or higher quality is a good risk/reward proposition. Sov: Relatively small yield pickup for riskier credits favors EM IG over EM HY. High duration of EM debt is attractive in environment where Fed is cutting rates.

Securitized Products

G0LL

Neutral

Securitized products credit spreads have tightened significantly since October. We remain neutral on SP credit and OW agency MBS

Commodities

MLCXTR

Bullish

 

Energy

MLCXENTR

Neutral

Slower economic growth and a softer demand profile should lead to larger inventory builds next year. As such, we are lowering our 2025 Brent forecast to $75/bbl from $80/bbl and lowering our 2025 WTI forecast to $71/bbl from $75. However, the mismatch of global demand and non-OPEC supply growth rates creates a conundrum for OPEC+, which had hoped to regain market share in 4Q24-2025.

Industrial Metals

MLCXIMTR

Bullish

Metals have been affected by an air pocket of manufacturing weakness in 2Q, which has provided for some volatility. That said, Michael Widmer notes that metal markets have remained tight despite the global macro weakness, as green energy investment has paced ahead especially in China. Going forward, we expect that 1) continued investment in green technologies, 2) an acceleration of the global economy, 3) an end to destocking, 4) rate cuts/ a weaker USD and 5) ongoing supply issues push especially copper and aluminum higher in 2H. We see copper and aluminium at $12,000/t and $3,250/t by 2026.

Precious Metals

MLCXPMTR

Bullish

There have been pockets of strength in buying, including from Chinese buyers on the challenges to domestic equities/ housing. Central bank buying also remains strong. Fed rate cuts, along concerns over public debt, should bring investors back into the market, so gold can hit $3,000/oz.

Cash

G0B1

Bullish

 

Source: BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

  Exhibit 24: BofA Year-end 2024 Forecasts vs. Consensus

BofA year-end forecasts, consensus year-end 2024 forecasts for GDP, CPI, rates, and global markets

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg, Datastream; FX, rates, equities and commodities data as of 10/4/2024; GDP data of 10/4/2024. CPI data for CPI through 10/4/2024; Equity consensus price and EPS forecasts as of 10/4/2024.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

    BofA US equity sector views

Exhibit 25: BofA US Equity Strategy sector views

Bull & bear case by sector

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 Sector

Weight in S&P 500

BofA View

Bull case

Bear case

Financials

12.9%

O/W

High quality and low leverage; Mispriced risk: Lower EPS vol than S&P 500 but high price beta

Regulatory overhang (likely most acute for regional banks, <3% of the sector)

Higher rates vs. prior cycle, YC steepening; capital markets recovery

Commercial Real Estate (majority of CRE growth over the past decade has been driven by small banks)

Shift from large cap bank lending to private lending since GFC - trend could reverse if private lending wanes in a higher rate backdrop and large banks are the only lender left to pick up slack

Risk if economy weakens more than expected

Sector has grown more labor-intensive post-GFC; AI can help drive margin/multiple expansion

 

Real Estate

2.3%

O/W

Dividend yield (benefits from retiree money shifting from short duration assets to equity income)

Commercial Real Estate risk (but Office is a negligible weight in S&P 500 Real Estate)

Real asset, but also a bond proxy; Inexpensive and unloved by long-only funds and hedge funds

Biggest exposure to refinancing risk, most negative real rate beta

Higher quality sector vs. last decade; cheap (big de-rating since Fed hiking cycle began)

 

Utilities

2.5%

O/W (up from M/W)

Stable fundamentals / defensive hedge; AI beneficiary

Positioning risk: elevated long-only and hedge fund positioning relative to history

Similar long-term annualized returns vs. Nasdaq (since 1980)

Renewables / green themes were born during ZIRP, not in a higher rate world

IRA / energy transition beneficiary

Dividend yield vs. 10-yr yield below post-GFC avg.

Lower rates beneficiary: Wall of retiree money in short duration funds may shift to equity income

Has lagged in both Recovery/Downturn regimes

Consumer Discretionary

10.2%

O/W

Fed easing beneficiary

Risk if job losses become more broad-based

Consumer resilience: real wage growth is positive, balance sheets are still healthy, majority of US homeowners locked in low-rate mortgages, layoff announcements are off peak, Baby Boomers have benefitted from higher rates and are transferring wealth

Weak earnings commentary in recent quarters

Housing benefits from structural shortages

Rising card delinquencies, low-income weakness (but bottom 2 income quintiles = just 1/5 of total spend)

 

Concentration risk - AMZN + TSLA represent 50% of the sector

 

Expensive (but below average ex. TSLA/AMZN)

Materials

2.2%

O/W

Underinvestment in manufacturing, single family, mining over last decade drives higher returns

Most exposed to China (along with Tech)

 

Capex cycle; rising copper prices (house view: $9,514/t in 2024E, 10,750/t in 2025E)

Growth slowdown

Potential recovery in manufacturing (exposed to housing/autos/etc.)

Ranks last in our tactical quant model

Industrials

8.5%

M/W

Capex, automation, green solutions and re-shoring beneficiary

Near peak positioning risk by long-onlies

"Picks and shovels" spend boosted by fiscal stimulus, a decade of underinvestment in US infrastructure; easing rate pressure & de-stocking cycle coming to an end

PMIs still weak; capex could face pressure if economy slows significantly

Half cyclical, half Quality

Rising earnings volatility amid de-globalization / less diversified end markets

 

BofA Industrial Momentum indicator weakening

Energy

3.3%

M/W

Commodity cycles end w/ oversupply; not likely if CEO pay is on ESG /div targets, not production.

Softening global demand for oil / non-OPEC supply recovery

Inflation-protected yield; war pushes energy security ahead of decarbonization

Limited upside based on house oil forecasts (Brent to average $80/bbl in 2024, $75 in 2025)

Re-rating on capital and supply discipline, IRA beneficiary

Lowest Quality sector based on S&P rankings

Long-only & hedge fund positioning low vs. history

High GHG direct emissions profile + secular headwinds from renewables, green capex

Attractive FCF

Ceasefires, peace breaks out

Communication Services

8.9%

M/W

Cheap vs. history

Positioning risk rising for long-onlies, high expectations (long-term growth forecasts)

Big buybacks and dividend initiations shortened duration risk

Regulatory / anti-monopolistic overhang / overinvestment in AI

AI tailwinds (e.g., ad-targeting), election ad spend

Index rebalance weighing on biggest stocks in the sector

Technology

31.6%

U/W

Secular themes (AI, cloud, telecommuting, robotics, etc.) & re-shoring capex

Expensive, concentration risk / Earnings broadening beyond Tech

Clean balance sheets, strong margins

Peak globalization (most multinational sector)

AI arms race benefits Semis & Hardware

Regulatory / anti-monopolistic overhang

Positioning risks subsided

Index rebalance weighing on biggest stocks in the sector

Health Care

11.6%

U/W

Defensive sector offering secular growth

Positioning: overweight by both long-only and hedge funds

Baby boomer spend beneficiary

Government sales exposure ahead of fiscal austerity

Relative valuations are cheap vs. history

Election year - drug price regulations likely to hit headlines

GLP-1

Fundamentals getting riskier - uptick in earnings volatility + increase in leverage post-GFC

Consumer Staples

5.9%

U/W

No matter what, we still have to eat - defensive hedge

Lower quality vs. history; disinflation = lower pricing power

Benefits from consumers trading down

Hit harder by regressive tax of oil / gas given low price point retailers; GLP-1 = thematic overhang

Cheap on most measures

Weak guidance

Source: Note: O/W = overweight, M/W = market weight, U/W = underweight. Weights in S&P 500 as of 9/30/2024 and may not add to 100% due to rounding. Source: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

   Global cross-asset returns

 September 2024 Review

  • Global equity markets rose 3.9% on average in September, led by the Hang Seng (18.7%) and MSCI emerging markets (+6.7%). Chinese equites are now up 22% over the last 3 months, best of any region. Meanwhile, TOPIX lagged, only rising 0.6%.
  • Mid-caps were the best performing size factor in September (+2.2%), outperforming small caps by 1.5%. Large cap value outperformed growth by 1.4%. Mid cap growth was the best performing factor overall, up +3.3%.
  • Discretionary (+7.1%) and utilities (+6.6%) were top sectors this month. Utilities is now the best performing sector over the last 3 months. Defensive sectors underperformed cyclicals in a reversal from last month.
  • All fixed income markets had positive returns for the third month in a row. Preferreds (+3.4%) had the best returns and are the top fixed income sector over the last 12 months (+19.8%).
  • Gold continues to rise, up +5.3% this month and +42.6% over the last 12 months. Oil lost ~8% in September. Recent gains haven't offset losses from the last quarter.

Exhibit 26: Equity Indexes

Total return (%)

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

As of 30 September 2024

Asset class

1mo

3mo

12mo

YTD

3yr2

5yr2

10yr2

Equity Indices (%, US dollar terms)

 

 

 

 

 

 

S&P 500

2.1

5.9

36.4

22.1

11.9

16.0

13.4

Dow Jones Industrial Avg.

2.0

8.7

28.8

13.9

10.0

11.8

12.0

NASDAQ Comp

2.8

2.8

38.6

21.8

8.8

18.8

16.1

MSCI All Country World

2.4

6.7

32.3

19.1

8.6

12.7

9.9

FTSE 100

0.6

7.9

23.4

15.4

9.0

7.8

4.2

DJ Euro Stoxx 50

1.8

6.5

29.4

13.9

8.7

9.9

5.8

MSCI EAFE

1.0

7.3

25.4

13.5

6.0

8.7

6.2

TOPIX

0.6

6.9

21.7

12.4

3.0

7.3

6.7

Hang Seng

18.7

22.3

25.2

29.9

-1.1

-0.6

2.8

MSCI Emerging Markets

6.7

8.9

26.5

17.2

0.8

6.1

4.4

Size & Style (%, US dollar terms) 

 

 

 

 

 

Russell 1000

2.1

6.1

35.7

21.2

10.8

15.6

13.1

Russell 1000 Growth

2.8

3.2

42.2

24.5

12.0

19.7

16.5

Russell 1000 Value

1.4

9.4

27.8

16.7

9.0

10.7

9.2

Russell Midcap

2.2

9.2

29.3

14.6

5.8

11.3

10.2

Russell Midcap Growth

3.3

6.5

29.3

12.9

2.3

11.5

11.3

Russell Midcap Value

1.9

10.1

29.0

15.1

7.4

10.3

8.9

Russell 2000

0.7

9.3

26.8

11.2

1.8

9.4

8.8

Russell 2000 Growth

1.3

8.4

27.7

13.2

-0.4

8.8

8.9

Russell 2000 Value

0.1

10.2

25.9

9.2

3.8

9.3

8.2

S&P 500 Sectors (%, US dollar terms)

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer Discretionary

7.1

7.8

28.1

13.9

4.8

12.1

13.1

Consumer Staples

0.9

9.0

25.3

18.7

10.4

10.0

9.6

Energy

-2.7

-2.3

0.8

8.4

24.1

13.9

4.0

Financials

-0.5

10.7

39.0

21.9

8.6

12.4

11.5

Health Care

-1.7

6.1

21.7

14.4

8.4

13.4

11.1

Industrials

3.4

11.5

35.9

20.2

13.4

13.8

11.7

Information Technology

2.5

1.6

52.7

30.3

19.9

26.7

22.4

Materials

2.6

9.7

25.2

14.1

9.1

13.0

9.1

Real Estate

3.3

17.2

35.8

14.3

3.7

6.2

8.9

Communication Services

4.6

1.7

42.9

28.8

6.5

14.6

9.8

Utilities

6.6

19.4

41.8

30.6

11.7

8.0

10.4

Source: BofA Global Research, S&P, MSCI, Bloomberg. Notes: * Performance is gross of foreign dividend withholding taxes, 23yr, 5yr, and 10yr returns are annualized.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

Exhibit 27: Bond/currency/commodity/hedge fund indexes

Total return (%)

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 

As of 30 September 2024

Asset class

1mo

3mo

12mo

YTD

3yr2

5yr2

10yr2

BofA Global Research Bond Indices (%, US dollar terms)

 

 

 

2-Year Treasury

0.8

2.9

6.5

3.9

0.8

1.2

1.2

5-Year Treasury

1.0

4.4

8.6

4.1

-1.2

0.2

1.3

10-Year Treasury

1.4

5.7

10.6

3.7

-3.5

-1.4

1.0

30-Year Treasury

1.8

8.0

14.1

1.7

-10.4

-5.9

0.3

US Broad Market Index

1.3

5.2

11.6

4.7

-1.4

0.3

1.9

TIPS

1.5

4.2

9.8

5.1

-0.8

2.5

2.6

Municipals*

1.1

2.7

10.5

2.7

0.1

1.4

2.6

US Corporate Bonds

1.7

5.7

14.1

5.8

-1.0

1.3

3.0

US High Yield Bonds

1.6

5.3

15.7

8.0

3.1

4.5

5.0

Emerging Mkt Corp Bonds

1.5

5.2

14.6

7.9

-0.7

1.4

2.9

Emerging Mkt Sov Bonds

1.9

6.7

18.6

7.7

-1.2

0.4

2.4

Preferreds

3.4

8.3

19.8

12.5

-0.5

3.0

4.8

Foreign exchange

 

 

 

 

 

 

DXY Index

-0.9

-4.8

-5.1

-0.5

2.3

0.3

1.6

GBP/USD

1.9

5.8

9.6

5.1

-0.2

1.7

-1.9

EUR/USD

0.8

3.9

5.3

0.9

-1.3

0.4

-1.3

USD/JPY

-1.7

-10.7

-3.8

1.8

8.9

5.9

2.7

Commodities** (%, US dollar terms)

 

 

 

 

 

 

CRB Index

2.9

-1.9

0.1

8.0

7.6

10.4

0.2

Gold

5.3

12.7

42.6

27.2

14.5

12.5

8.1

WTI Crude Oil

-7.3

-16.4

-24.9

-4.9

-3.1

4.7

-

Brent Crude Oil

-8.9

-16.9

-24.7

-6.8

-3.0

3.4

-2.7

Alternative Investments† (%, US dollar terms)

 

 

 

 

Hedge Fund - CS Tremont¹

-1.0

0.1

8.8

6.3

4.7

6.0

4.2

Hedge Fund - Bloomberg¹

0.1

0.8

12.0

7.9

2.7

6.0

4.2

Source: S&P, MSCI, Bloomberg, FactSet, BofA Bond Indices (US Treasury Current 10yr, Current 2yr, Inflation-Linked; Muni Master, US Corp Master, US HY Master II, EM Corp Plus Index; EM External Debt Sovereign Index; US Preferred Stock Index).

Notes: * Not tax adjusted. **BoE calculated effective FX indices. ¹Data lagged by one month; 23yr, 5yr, and 10yr returns are annualized; CS AUM-weighted, HFRI equal-weighted; †AI data not comparable to other asset classes because of reporting delays, lack of standardized reporting, and survivorship and self-selection biases. Crude oil prices are spot USD.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 Appendix

BofA Intangible Value Screen

The BofA Intangible Value Index screens the S&P 500 for stocks with the lowest quintile price to adjusted book value ratio where adjusted book value adds the following to tangible book value:

1. Reported intangible assets ex-goodwill;

2. Capitalized research & development expense: The initial R&D expense for stocks added to the index is grossed up and then depreciated using a 5% annual rate and increased in subsequent periods by R&D expense;

3. Organizational capital: 30% of SG&A expense depreciated at 20% per year.

A return on invested capital (ROIC) filter is then applied to the bottom quintile; the bottom third of stocks with the lowest average 20-quarter ROIC are removed.

The index calculation begins March 30, 2000 and is rebalanced quarterly without transaction cost estimates. This screen was launched September 8, 2020.

Exhibit 28: Intangible Value members for 4Q 2024

BofA Intangible Value screen results as of end of 3Q 2024

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

    Name

Ticker

BofA rating

Sector

Weight BofA Value

Weight SPX Value

Weight difference

Price

QRQ

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

Neutral

Health Care

10.93%

1.84%

9.09%

160.29

A-2-7

Merck & Co Inc

MRK

Buy

Health Care

8.07%

0.80%

7.27%

109.77

A-1-7

Verizon Communications Inc

VZ

Neutral

Communication Services

5.30%

0.89%

4.41%

44.18

B-2-7

Amgen Inc

AMGN

Neutral

Health Care

4.85%

0.82%

4.03%

319.66

B-2-7

Pfizer Inc

PFE

Neutral

Health Care

4.60%

0.77%

3.82%

28.58

B-2-7

Comcast Corp

CMCSA

Buy

Communication Services

4.54%

0.76%

3.79%

41.19

B-1-7

RTX Corp

RTX

Buy

Industrials

4.52%

0.79%

3.73%

124.91

B-1-7

AT&T Inc

T

Buy

Communication Services

4.42%

0.75%

3.67%

21.91

B-1-7

Medtronic PLC

MDT

Buy

Health Care

3.24%

0.54%

2.70%

88.26

B-1-7

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co

BMY

Neutral

Health Care

2.94%

0.52%

2.42%

53.96

B-2-7

Gilead Sciences Inc

GILD

Buy

Health Care

2.93%

0.50%

2.43%

84.59

B-1-7

Intel Corp

INTC

Underperform

Information Technology

2.81%

0.46%

2.35%

22.59

B-3-8

Boeing Co/The

BA

Neutral

Industrials

2.62%

0.24%

2.38%

155.00

B-2-9

PayPal Holdings Inc

PYPL

Neutral

Financials

2.26%

0.39%

1.87%

79.36

B-2-9

CVS Health Corp

CVS

Buy

Health Care

2.21%

0.39%

1.83%

64.59

B-1-7

3M Co

MMM

Buy

Industrials

2.10%

0.35%

1.75%

135.27

B-1-7

Motorola Solutions Inc

MSI

Buy

Information Technology

2.10%

0.15%

1.95%

450.30

B-1-7

NXP Semiconductors NV

NXPI

Buy

Information Technology

1.72%

0.07%

1.64%

234.24

B-1-7

General Motors Co

GM

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

1.38%

0.24%

1.14%

45.68

B-1-7

Charter Communications Inc

CHTR

Neutral

Communication Services

1.30%

0.08%

1.21%

326.32

B-2-9

Kenvue Inc

KVUE

Buy

Consumer Staples

1.24%

0.20%

1.04%

22.16

B-1-7

Prudential Financial Inc

PRU

Neutral

Financials

1.21%

0.21%

1.00%

122.99

B-2-7

GE HealthCare Technologies Inc

GEHC

Neutral

Health Care

1.20%

0.20%

1.00%

91.42

B-2-7

Kraft Heinz Co/The

KHC

Buy

Consumer Staples

1.19%

0.15%

1.04%

34.59

B-1-7

Ford Motor Co

F

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

1.18%

0.20%

0.98%

10.57

B-1-7

Corteva Inc

CTVA

Neutral

Materials

1.14%

0.19%

0.95%

58.33

B-2-7

Centene Corp

CNC

Neutral

Health Care

1.11%

0.18%

0.93%

72.08

B-2-9

Estee Lauder Cos Inc/The

EL

Neutral

Consumer Staples

1.00%

0.11%

0.90%

95.86

B-2-7

PPG Industries Inc

PPG

Buy

Materials

0.87%

0.14%

0.72%

128.57

B-1-7

Biogen Inc

BIIB

Neutral

Health Care

0.79%

0.13%

0.66%

185.68

B-2-9

Keysight Technologies Inc

KEYS

Underperform

Information Technology

0.77%

0.13%

0.64%

156.38

B-3-9

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co

HPE

Buy

Information Technology

0.74%

0.13%

0.62%

20.62

B-1-7

Moderna Inc

MRNA

Neutral

Health Care

0.72%

0.10%

0.62%

60.20

C-2-9

Western Digital Corp

WDC

Buy

Information Technology

0.66%

0.10%

0.55%

66.35

C-1-9

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

STX

Buy

Information Technology

0.65%

0.06%

0.58%

107.24

B-1-8

Best Buy Co Inc

BBY

Underperform

Consumer Discretionary

0.62%

0.09%

0.53%

99.61

B-3-7

Zimmer Biomet Holdings Inc

ZBH

Neutral

Health Care

0.62%

0.10%

0.52%

104.68

B-2-7

Tyson Foods Inc

TSN

Neutral

Consumer Staples

0.58%

0.08%

0.50%

58.55

B-2-7

Warner Bros Discovery Inc

WBD

Buy

Communication Services

0.57%

0.08%

0.48%

7.78

C-1-9

Aptiv PLC

APTV

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

0.54%

0.09%

0.45%

70.33

C-1-9

Zebra Technologies Corp

ZBRA

NA

Information Technology

0.54%

0.09%

0.45%

366.72

NA

Stanley Black & Decker Inc

SWK

NA

Industrials

0.48%

0.08%

0.40%

107.38

NA

Textron Inc

TXT

Buy

Industrials

0.47%

0.08%

0.39%

86.74

B-1-7

Skyworks Solutions Inc

SWKS

Underperform

Information Technology

0.44%

0.07%

0.37%

96.83

B-3-7

News Corp

NWSA

NA

Communication Services

0.42%

0.05%

0.38%

26.14

NA

Campbell Soup Co

CPB

Underperform

Consumer Staples

0.41%

0.04%

0.36%

47.35

B-3-7

Viatris Inc

VTRS

Underperform

Health Care

0.39%

0.07%

0.33%

11.59

B-3-7

J M Smucker Co/The

SJM

Neutral

Consumer Staples

0.36%

0.06%

0.30%

117.39

B-2-7

Juniper Networks Inc

JNPR

NA

Information Technology

0.36%

0.06%

0.29%

38.82

NA

Incyte Corp

INCY

Neutral

Health Care

0.35%

0.05%

0.30%

67.49

B-2-9

Solventum Corp

SOLV

Neutral

Health Care

0.34%

0.04%

0.29%

67.74

C-2-9

Molson Coors Beverage Co

TAP

Neutral

Consumer Staples

0.33%

0.05%

0.29%

56.07

B-2-7

Teleflex Inc

TFX

Neutral

Health Care

0.33%

0.05%

0.27%

239.18

B-2-7

Tapestry Inc

TPR

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

0.30%

0.05%

0.25%

46.50

B-1-7

LKQ Corp

LKQ

NA

Consumer Discretionary

0.30%

0.05%

0.25%

39.22

NA

Hasbro Inc

HAS

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

0.28%

0.05%

0.24%

72.31

B-1-7

Qorvo Inc

QRVO

Underperform

Information Technology

0.27%

0.05%

0.23%

102.00

B-3-9

Henry Schein Inc

HSIC

Underperform

Health Care

0.26%

0.04%

0.22%

70.56

B-3-9

Caesars Entertainment Inc

CZR

Neutral

Consumer Discretionary

0.25%

0.02%

0.23%

44.47

C-2-9

BorgWarner Inc

BWA

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

0.23%

0.04%

0.19%

35.13

B-1-7

FMC Corp

FMC

Underperform

Materials

0.23%

0.04%

0.19%

63.98

B-3-7

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc

WBA

Underperform

Consumer Staples

0.22%

0.03%

0.19%

8.72

B-3-8

Bath & Body Works Inc

BBWI

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

0.20%

0.03%

0.16%

29.92

C-1-7

Source: BofA Global Research, Factset; This screen is not a recommended list either individually or as a group of stocks. Investors should consider the fundamentals of the companies and their own individual circumstances/objectives before making any investment decisions. Disclaimer: The screen identified above is intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. This screen was not created to act as a benchmark. Price as of close 10/4/2024.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

BofA Efficient Growth Screen

The BofA Efficient Growth screen is created by weighting the results of each of two screens by 50%:

1. R&D Innovation (screen 1) uses the largest 3,000 publicly listed US stocks as a universe and regresses one-year lagged R&D, SG&A and Capex against revenue. Stocks are ranked by highest R&D coefficient and the top quintile are selected.

2. Capex Achievers (screen 2) uses the NASDAQ US Benchmark Index (NQUSB) as a universe and screens for companies that:

a. Have a minimum market capitalization of $200mm;

b. Have a minimum three-month average daily dollar trading volume of $500k;

c. Have at least three consecutive years of increasing annual capex expenditure;

d. Have an average ROIC greater than 10% over the trailing four years.

The Capex Achievers screen is rebalanced annually at the end of March using market data through the end of December.

The Efficient Growth screen calculation begins 12/31/2004 and does not include transaction cost estimates. This screen was launched September 8, 2020.

 

Exhibit 29: Efficient Growth members for 4Q 2024

BofA Efficient Growth screen results as of end of 4Q 2024

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 Name

Ticker

BofA rating

Sector

Weight Efficient Growth

Weight SPX Growth

Weight difference

Price

QRQ

Alphabet Inc-Cl A

GOOGL

Buy

Communication Services

4.42%

6.48%*

-2.05%

167.06

B-1-7

Microsoft Corp

MSFT

Buy

Information Technology

4.42%

11.20%

-6.78%

416.06

B-1-7

Coca-Cola Co/The

KO

Buy

Consumer Staples

2.23%

0.38%

1.84%

70.17

A-1-7

Advanced Micro Devices

AMD

Buy

Information Technology

2.04%

1.00%

1.04%

170.90

C-1-9

Costco Wholesale Corp

COST

Buy

Consumer Staples

2.04%

0.60%

1.44%

883.11

B-1-7

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

Neutral

Health Care

2.04%

NA

NA

160.29

A-2-7

Oracle Corp

ORCL

Neutral

Information Technology

2.04%

0.99%

1.05%

170.86

B-2-7

Unitedhealth Group Inc

UNH

Buy

Health Care

2.04%

0.75%

1.29%

591.20

B-1-7

Pepsico Inc

PEP

Buy

Consumer Staples

1.71%

0.30%

1.41%

167.97

A-1-7

Intuitive Surgical Inc

ISRG

Buy

Health Care

1.66%

0.41%

1.25%

481.95

B-1-9

Applied Materials Inc

AMAT

Buy

Information Technology

1.63%

0.61%

1.02%

201.97

B-1-7

Caterpillar Inc

CAT

Buy

Industrials

1.43%

0.40%

1.03%

397.09

B-1-7

Philip Morris International

PM

Buy

Consumer Staples

1.38%

0.25%

1.13%

119.10

A-1-7

Texas Instruments Inc

TXN

Neutral

Information Technology

1.38%

0.25%

1.13%

202.71

B-2-7

Amgen Inc

AMGN

Neutral

Health Care

1.28%

NA

NA

319.66

B-2-7

Colgate-Palmolive Co

CL

Buy

Consumer Staples

1.01%

0.11%

0.89%

99.04

A-1-7

Conocophillips

COP

Buy

Energy

1.00%

0.33%

0.67%

114.54

B-1-7

Kla Corp

KLAC

Buy

Information Technology

0.80%

0.38%

0.42%

787.39

B-1-7

Hca Healthcare Inc

HCA

Buy

Health Care

0.77%

0.13%

0.65%

394.07

B-1-7

Intel Corp

INTC

Underperform

Information Technology

0.74%

NA

NA

22.59

B-3-8

General Mills Inc

GIS

Neutral

Consumer Staples

0.72%

NA

NA

73.61

A-2-7

Sherwin-Williams Co/The

SHW

Underperform

Materials

0.72%

0.16%

0.56%

371.30

B-3-7

Trane Technologies Plc

TT

Neutral

Industrials

0.67%

0.22%

0.45%

388.36

B-2-7

Zoetis Inc

ZTS

Buy

Health Care

0.66%

0.17%

0.49%

190.03

B-1-7

Rockwell Automation Inc

ROK

Neutral

Industrials

0.64%

0.05%

0.59%

267.01

B-2-7

Keysight Technologies In

KEYS

Underperform

Information Technology

0.62%

NA

NA

156.38

B-3-9

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

CMG

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

0.60%

0.28%

0.32%

57.11

B-1-9

Illinois Tool Works

ITW

Underperform

Industrials

0.59%

0.12%

0.48%

258.41

B-3-7

Eog Resources Inc

EOG

Buy

Energy

0.59%

0.18%

0.40%

133.12

B-1-7

Carrier Global Corp

CARR

Neutral

Industrials

0.57%

0.12%

0.45%

80.80

B-2-7

Marriott International -Cl A

MAR

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

0.56%

0.22%

0.34%

254.61

B-1-7

Rpm International Inc

RPM

Underperform

Materials

0.54%

NA

NA

128.91

B-3-7

Celanese Corp

CE

Underperform

Materials

0.53%

0.05%

0.48%

136.67

B-3-7

Csx Corp

CSX

Neutral

Industrials

0.52%

0.12%

0.40%

34.49

B-2-7

Lincoln Electric Holdings

LECO

NA

Industrials

0.50%

NA

NA

191.50

NA

Universal Display Corp

OLED

Buy

Information Technology

0.49%

NA

NA

211.71

B-1-7

Public Storage

PSA

Neutral

Real Estate

0.48%

0.08%

0.39%

345.40

B-2-7

Polaris Inc

PII

Neutral

Consumer Discretionary

0.45%

NA

NA

82.25

B-2-7

Cargurus Inc

CARG

NA

Communication Services

0.44%

NA

NA

29.29

NA

Agco Corp

AGCO

Neutral

Industrials

0.42%

NA

NA

97.45

B-2-7

Abbvie Inc

ABBV

Neutral

Health Care

0.42%

0.46%

-0.04%

194.29

B-2-7

Adobe Inc

ADBE

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

0.81%

-0.39%

507.22

B-1-9

Advanced Energy Industries

AEIS

Neutral

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

105.53

B-2-8

Alarm.Com Holdings Inc

ALRM

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

52.87

B-1-9

Albany Intl Corp-Cl A

AIN

Underperform

Industrials

0.42%

NA

NA

77.72

B-3-8

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc

ALNY

Buy

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

267.99

C-1-9

Ametek Inc

AME

Neutral

Industrials

0.42%

0.07%

0.35%

170.11

B-2-7

Appfolio Inc - A

APPF

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

227.12

NA

Arbutus Biopharma Corp

ABUS

NA

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

3.84

NA

Atlassian Corp-Cl A

TEAM

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

171.00

NA

Atricure Inc

ATRC

NA

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

27.63

NA

Automatic Data Processing

ADP

Neutral

Industrials

0.42%

0.16%

0.26%

285.16

B-2-7

Axon Enterprise Inc

AXON

Buy

Industrials

0.42%

0.11%

0.31%

421.80

C-1-7

Badger Meter Inc

BMI

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

223.58

NA

Bellring Brands Inc

BRBR

Buy

Consumer Staples

0.42%

NA

NA

62.12

B-1-9

Biocryst Pharmaceuticals Inc

BCRX

Buy

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

7.58

C-1-9

Bio-Techne Corp

TECH

NA

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

74.78

NA

Blackline Inc

BL

Underperform

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

54.51

C-3-9

Borgwarner Inc

BWA

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

0.42%

NA

NA

35.13

B-1-7

Box Inc - Class A

BOX

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

32.15

NA

Broadcom Inc

AVGO

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

2.98%

-2.56%

176.64

B-1-7

Brunswick Corp

BC

NA

Consumer Discretionary

0.42%

NA

NA

82.38

NA

Cadence Design Sys Inc

CDNS

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

0.27%

0.16%

268.65

B-1-9

Celldex Therapeutics Inc

CLDX

NA

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

30.65

NA

Dayforce Inc

DAY

NA

Industrials

0.42%

0.02%

0.40%

61.86

NA

Ceva Inc

CEVA

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

24.99

NA

Cohu Inc

COHU

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

24.68

NA

Consolidated Edison Inc

ED

Buy

Utilities

0.42%

NA

NA

103.15

A-1-7

Corsair Gaming Inc

CRSR

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

7.21

NA

Costar Group Inc

CSGP

NA

Real Estate

0.42%

0.05%

0.37%

74.10

NA

Danaher Corp

DHR

Neutral

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

270.03

B-2-7

Digi International Inc

DGII

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

29.38

NA

Docusign Inc

DOCU

Neutral

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

63.84

C-2-9

Donaldson Co Inc

DCI

NA

Industrials

0.42%

NA

NA

73.70

NA

Dropbox Inc-Class A

DBX

Underperform

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

25.37

B-3-9

Electronic Arts Inc

EA

Buy

Communication Services

0.42%

0.05%

0.37%

142.70

B-1-7

Entegris Inc

ENTG

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

112.20

NA

Fate Therapeutics Inc

FATE

Underperform

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

3.22

C-3-9

Fortinet Inc

FTNT

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

0.18%

0.24%

78.01

B-1-9

Fortive Corp

FTV

Neutral

Industrials

0.42%

0.10%

0.32%

76.91

B-2-7

H.B. Fuller Co.

FUL

NA

Materials

0.42%

NA

NA

77.72

NA

Gentherm Inc

THRM

NA

Consumer Discretionary

0.42%

NA

NA

42.65

NA

Gevo Inc

GEVO

NA

Energy

0.42%

NA

NA

1.68

NA

Globus Medical Inc - A

GMED

Underperform

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

70.66

B-3-9

Graco Inc

GGG

NA

Industrials

0.42%

NA

NA

85.79

NA

Guardant Health Inc

GH

Buy

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

22.16

C-1-9

Jack Henry & Associates Inc

JKHY

Buy

Financials

0.42%

NA

NA

182.14

B-1-7

Howmet Aerospace Inc

HWM

Buy

Industrials

0.42%

0.09%

0.33%

102.03

B-1-7

Immunitybio Inc

IBRX

NA

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

3.43

NA

Infinera Corp

INFN

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

6.75

NA

Kulicke & Soffa Industries

KLIC

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

45.08

NA

Lam Research Corp

LRCX

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

0.38%

0.04%

81.54

C-1-7

Lattice Semiconductor Corp

LSCC

Underperform

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

53.01

C-3-9

Lemaitre Vascular Inc

LMAT

NA

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

91.62

NA

Lennox International Inc

LII

NA

Industrials

0.42%

NA

NA

594.05

NA

Eli Lilly & Co

LLY

Buy

Health Care

0.42%

2.53%

-2.11%

887.16

B-1-7

Mks Instruments Inc

MKSI

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

105.86

C-1-7

Magnite Inc

MGNI

Buy

Communication Services

0.42%

NA

NA

12.30

C-1-9

Masimo Corp

MASI

NA

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

138.83

NA

Maxlinear Inc

MXL

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

13.42

NA

Merit Medical Systems Inc

MMSI

Neutral

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

95.63

B-2-9

Microchip Technology Inc

MCHP

Neutral

Information Technology

0.42%

0.09%

0.33%

77.68

B-2-7

Mitek Systems Inc

MITK

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

8.42

NA

Motorola Solutions Inc

MSI

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

0.16%

0.26%

450.30

B-1-7

Napco Security Technologies

NSSC

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

38.59

NA

Netflix Inc

NFLX

Buy

Communication Services

0.42%

1.12%

-0.70%

719.70

B-1-9

Nutanix Inc - A

NTNX

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

60.92

C-1-9

Nvidia Corp

NVDA

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

11.13%

-10.71%

124.92

C-1-7

Ocular Therapeutix Inc

OCUL

Buy

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

9.84

C-1-9

Okta Inc

OKTA

Underperform

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

72.31

C-3-9

Onto Innovation Inc

ONTO

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

209.05

NA

Oshkosh Corp

OSK

Underperform

Industrials

0.42%

NA

NA

100.70

B-3-7

Ptc Inc

PTC

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

0.05%

0.37%

179.60

B-1-9

Pacific Biosciences Of Calif

PACB

NA

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

1.72

NA

Pfizer Inc

PFE

Neutral

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

28.58

B-2-7

Preformed Line Products Co

PLPC

NA

Industrials

0.42%

NA

NA

121.94

NA

Procter & Gamble Co/The

PG

Buy

Consumer Staples

0.42%

0.56%

-0.14%

168.88

A-1-7

Progress Software Corp

PRGS

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

66.29

NA

Pure Storage Inc - Class A

PSTG

Neutral

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

51.24

C-2-9

Q2 Holdings Inc

QTWO

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

79.59

NA

Qualys Inc

QLYS

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

127.13

NA

Regal Rexnord Corp

RRX

NA

Industrials

0.42%

NA

NA

167.81

NA

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

REGN

Underperform

Health Care

0.42%

0.23%

0.19%

1012.82

B-3-9

Regenxbio Inc

RGNX

Buy

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

9.72

C-1-9

Resmed Inc

RMD

Buy

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

233.98

B-1-7

Sps Commerce Inc

SPSC

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

190.32

NA

Ss&C Technologies Holdings

SSNC

NA

Industrials

0.42%

NA

NA

73.77

NA

Servicenow Inc

NOW

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

0.68%

-0.26%

917.68

B-1-9

Snap Inc - A

SNAP

Neutral

Communication Services

0.42%

NA

NA

10.80

C-2-9

Solaredge Technologies Inc

SEDG

Neutral

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

20.13

C-2-9

Staar Surgical Co

STAA

NA

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

35.07

NA

Stepan Co

SCL

NA

Materials

0.42%

NA

NA

77.24

NA

Super Micro Computer Inc

SMCI

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

0.08%

0.35%

41.23

NA

Synopsys Inc

SNPS

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

0.28%

0.14%

499.12

B-1-9

Tenable Holdings Inc

TENB

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

41.43

NA

Tesla Inc

TSLA

Buy

Consumer Discretionary

0.42%

2.51%

-2.09%

250.08

C-1-9

Ubiquiti Inc

UI

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

226.39

NA

Vicor Corp

VICR

NA

Industrials

0.42%

NA

NA

42.05

NA

Waters Corp

WAT

Neutral

Health Care

0.42%

0.03%

0.39%

352.51

B-2-9

Workday Inc-Class A

WDAY

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

242.35

B-1-9

Yelp Inc

YELP

Underperform

Communication Services

0.42%

NA

NA

34.61

B-3-9

Zebra Technologies Corp-Cl A

ZBRA

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

366.72

NA

Zillow Group Inc - C

Z

Neutral

Real Estate

0.42%

NA

NA

62.78

C-2-9

Allegion Plc

ALLE

Underperform

Industrials

0.42%

0.02%

0.40%

145.61

B-3-7

Eaton Corp Plc

ETN

Buy

Industrials

0.42%

0.30%

0.12%

333.05

B-1-7

Ichor Holdings Ltd

ICHR

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

30.95

NA

Weatherford International Pl

WFRD

Buy

Energy

0.42%

NA

NA

91.60

C-1-9

Prothena Corp Plc

PRTA

Neutral

Health Care

0.42%

NA

NA

16.86

C-2-9

Steris Plc

STE

NA

Health Care

0.42%

0.05%

0.38%

231.02

NA

Camtek Ltd

CAMT

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

80.29

C-1-9

Perion Network Ltd

PERI

NA

Communication Services

0.42%

NA

NA

7.84

NA

Tower Semiconductor Ltd

TSEM

NA

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

44.30

NA

Wix.Com Ltd

WIX

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

159.73

C-1-9

Elastic Nv

ESTC

Neutral

Information Technology

0.42%

NA

NA

79.01

C-2-9

Nxp Semiconductors Nv

NXPI

Buy

Information Technology

0.42%

0.16%

0.26%

234.24

B-1-7

United Rentals Inc

URI

Buy

Industrials

0.42%

0.19%

0.22%

789.52

C-1-7

Autozone Inc

AZO

Neutral

Consumer Discretionary

0.41%

0.13%

0.28%

3033.58

B-2-9

Ww Grainger Inc

GWW

Underperform

Industrials

0.40%

0.12%

0.28%

1033.24

B-3-7

Msci Inc

MSCI

NA

Financials

0.37%

0.10%

0.28%

589.72

NA

Cummins Inc

CMI

Underperform

Industrials

0.37%

NA

NA

331.74

B-3-7

Arch Capital Group Ltd

ACGL

Buy

Financials

0.35%

0.16%

0.19%

114.86

B-1-9

Agilent Technologies Inc

A

Neutral

Health Care

0.34%

NA

NA

144.97

B-2-7

Hershey Co/The

HSY

Neutral

Consumer Staples

0.32%

0.04%

0.28%

191.84

A-2-7

Yum! Brands Inc

YUM

Neutral

Consumer Discretionary

0.32%

0.06%

0.25%

136.57

B-2-7

Nucor Corp

NUE

Buy

Materials

0.30%

0.08%

0.22%

151.44

B-1-7

Hartford Financial Svcs Grp

HIG

Neutral

Financials

0.29%

NA

NA

118.09

B-2-7

Estee Lauder Companies-Cl A

EL

Neutral

Consumer Staples

0.29%

NA

NA

95.86

B-2-7

Source: BofA Global Research, Factset; This screen is not a recommended list either individually or as a group of stocks. Investors should consider the fundamentals of the companies and their own individual circumstances/objectives before making any investment decisions. Disclaimer: The screen identified above is intended to be an indicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. This screen was not created to act as a benchmark. Price as of close 10/4/2024. *Alphabet weight in SPX Growth includes A & C shares.

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

Tax disclosure

Any information relating to the tax status of financial instruments discussed herein is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used by anyone to provide tax advice. Investors are urged to seek tax advice based on their particular circumstances from an independent tax professional.

 

Exhibit 30: ETFs mentioned

Ticker, name, rating, price

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 Ticker

Name

Rating

Price

XLC

Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

1-UF

90.18

XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund

1-FV

93.74

XLRE

Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund

1-NV

43.15

IYK

iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF

1-FV

68.69

VCR

Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF

1-UF

331.83

XLU

Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund

1-NV

79.86

FXZ

First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund

1-NV

66.44

XLV

Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund

1-FV

151.19

XLI

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund

1-NV

135.27

XLK

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund

1-UF

225.48

XLF

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund

1-FV

45.17

VYMI

Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF

1-FV

73.29

SCHD

Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF

1-FV

84.41

DIVB

iShares Core Dividend ETF

1-FV

48.40

VTV

Vanguard Value ETF

1-FV

173.63

COWZ

Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF

1-FV

58.24

SCHG

Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF

1-FV

103.65

CALF

Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF

1-FV

46.25

SCHM

Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF

1-FV

82.39

FNDX

Schwab Fundamental U.S. Large Company ETF

1-NV

71.23

IVV

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF

1-NV

573.09

ICLN

iShares Global Clean Energy ETF

1-NV

14.14

AIQ

Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF

1-NV

37.52

VOTE

TCW Transform 500 ETF

1-NV

66.67

FIW

First Trust Water ETF

1-FV

107.31

EWW

iShares MSCI Mexico ETF

1-FV

54.96

KBA

KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF

1-UF

30.42

DXJ

WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund

1-FV

109.19

HEFA

iShares Currency Hedged MSCI EAFE ETF

1-NV

35.50

EMGF

iShares Emerging Markets Equity Factor ETF

1-NV

51.50

VEU

Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF

1-NV

62.99

FLCA

Franklin FTSE Canada ETF

1-FV

37.62

FEZ

SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF

1-NV

52.12

EMXC

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF

1-FV

60.10

EPI

WisdomTree India Earnings Fund

1-FV

48.38

URA

Global X Uranium ETF

1-FV

29.85

PXE

Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF

1-NV

32.17

OIH

VanEck Oil Services ETF

1-NV

301.69

KBE

SPDR S&P Bank ETF

1-NV

52.02

RING

iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF

1-NV

32.47

MLPX

Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF

1-FV

56.69

XME

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF

2-FV

63.83

XRT

SPDR S&P Retail ETF

1-UF

75.12

PPH

VanEck Pharmaceutical ETF

1-FV

93.28

ITB

iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF

1-NV

123.27

IHI

iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF

1-FV

57.46

IGV

iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF

1-FV

89.23

BBH

VanEck Biotech ETF

1-UF

173.67

KIE

SPDR S&P Insurance ETF

1-FV

55.76

SMH

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

1-NV

250.46

PPA

Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF

1-FV

116.43

IYZ

iShares U.S. Telecommunications ETF

3-UF

25.29

PXI

Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust Invesco Dorsey Wright Energy Momentum ETF

3-FV

46.16

SCHH

Schwab U.S. REIT ETF

3-NV

22.44

RSPS

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Staples ETF

3-FV

31.50

IYC

iShares U.S. Consumer Discretionary ETF

3-UF

86.19

RSPU

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Utilities ETF

3-NV

67.97

IYM

iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF

2-NV

149.21

PTH

Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust Invesco Dorsey Wright Healthcare Momentum ETF

3-FV

44.83

FXR

First Trust Industrials/Producer Durables AlphaDEX Fund

3-NV

75.40

QTEC

First Trust NASDAQ-100 Technology Index Fund

3-UF

191.85

FXO

First Trust Financial AlphaDEX Fund

2-FV

50.98

PID

Invesco International Dividend Achievers ETF

3-FV

19.57

LVHD

Franklin U.S. Low Volatility High Dividend Index ETF

3-FV

40.14

IPKW

Invesco International BuyBack Achievers ETF

2-FV

43.04

RPV

Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust - Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF

3-FV

87.84

QLC

FlexShares US Quality Large Cap Index Fund

3-FV

64.76

IVW

iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF

3-FV

95.32

FYX

First Trust Small Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund

3-FV

97.29

IJH

iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF

2-FV

61.82

LRGF

iShares U.S. Equity Factor ETF

3-NV

58.53

OEF

iShares S&P 100 ETF

3-NV

275.42

SMOG

VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF

2-NV

110.60

DTEC

ALPS Disruptive Technologies ETF

3-NV

43.99

ESGE

iShares ESG Aware MSCI EM ETF

3-NV

37.65

PIO

Invesco Global Water ETF

3-FV

41.75

ECH

iShares MSCI Chile ETF

3-FV

26.41

EWH

iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF

3-UF

20.25

JPXN

iShares JPX-Nikkei 400 ETF /US

3-FV

76.11

RODM

Hartford Multifactor Developed Markets ex-US ETF

3-NV

30.17

DBEM

Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets Hedged Equity ETF

3-FV

27.32

ACWX

iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF

3-NV

57.06

EWC

iShares MSCI Canada ETF

2-FV

41.54

FDD

First Trust STOXX European Select Dividend Index Fund

3-NV

12.15

XCEM

Columbia EM Core ex-China ETF

1-FV

32.25

INDY

iShares India 50 ETF

3-FV

54.34

NLR

VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF

1-FV

87.43

XOP

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF

3-NV

142.01

XES

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF

3-NV

86.32

IAT

iShares U.S. Regional Banks ETF

3-NV

46.83

GDXJ

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF

2-NV

47.89

TPYP

Tortoise North American Pipeline Fund

3-FV

32.30

REMX

VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF

3-FV

49.93

PEJ

Invesco Leisure & Entertainment ETF

3-UF

47.58

PJP

Invesco Pharmaceuticals ETF

3-FV

86.09

XHB

SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF

2-NV

120.96

XHE

SPDR S&P Health Care Equipment ETF

2-FV

86.52

IGPT

Invesco AI and Next Gen Software ETF

3-FV

45.72

PBE

Invesco Biotechnology & Genome ETF

3-UF

68.55

KBWP

Invesco KBW Property & Casualty ETF

2-FV

112.04

XSD

SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF

3-NV

237.59

XAR

SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF

3-FV

159.01

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

Exhibit 31: Stocks mentioned

Ticker, name, rating, price

For an accessible version Merrill clients call 800-637-7455; Merrill Edge Self-Directed clients call 877-653-4732

 Ticker

Name

Rating

Price

NHI

National Health Investors Inc

B-1-7

BUY

80.56

Source: BofA Global Research, Bloomberg

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

 

 

 

 

​I,Jared Woodard, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject equity securities and issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

 

 

Special Disclosures

​BofA Securities is currently acting as Financial Advisor to Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc. on potential Activism Defense.

​BofA Securities is currently acting as advisor to EQT AB in connection with its proposed acquisition of a stake in Acronis International GmbH, which was announced on August 7, 2024.

​BofA Securities is currently acting as financial advisor to SS&C Technologies Holdings Inc in connection with its proposed acquisition of Battea Class Action Services LLC, which was announced on September 12, 2024.

 Important Disclosures

 

Exchange-Traded Funds Investment Rating Distribution: Global Group (as of 30 Sep 2024)

Coverage Universe

Count

Percent

Inv. Banking Relationships R1

Count

Percent

Buy

115

24.47%

Buy

73

63.48%

Hold

344

73.19%

Hold

257

74.71%

Sell

11

2.34%

Sell

7

63.64%

 R1 Exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or the ETF providers, that were investment banking clients of BofA Securities or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months. For purposes of this Investment Rating Distribution, the coverage universe includes only ETFs. An ETF rated 1-FV is included as a Buy; an ETF rated 2-FV, 3-FV, 1-NV, 2-NV, 3-NV, 1-UF or 2-UF is included as a Hold; and an ETF rated 3-UF is included as a Sell.

 

FUNDAMENTAL EQUITY OPINION KEY: Opinions include a Volatility Risk Rating, an Investment Rating and an Income Rating. VOLATILITY RISK RATINGS, indicators of potential price fluctuation, are: A - Low, B - Medium and C - High. INVESTMENT RATINGS reflect the analyst's assessment of both a stock's absolute total return potential as well as its attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster (defined below). Our investment ratings are: 1 - Buy stocks are expected to have a total return of at least 10% and are the most attractive stocks in the coverage cluster; 2 - Neutral stocks are expected to remain flat or increase in value and are less attractive than Buy rated stocks and 3 - Underperform stocks are the least attractive stocks in a coverage cluster. An investment rating of 6 (No Rating) indicates that a stock is no longer trading on the basis of fundamentals. Analysts assign investment ratings considering, among other things, the 0-12 month total return expectation for a stock and the firm's guidelines for ratings dispersions (shown in the table below). The current price objective for a stock should be referenced to better understand the total return expectation at any given time. The price objective reflects the analyst's view of the potential price appreciation (depreciation).

Investment rating

Total return expectation (within 12-month period of date of initial rating)

Ratings dispersion guidelines for coverage clusterR2

Buy

≥ 10%

≤ 70%

Neutral

≥ 0%

≤ 30%

Underperform

N/A

≥ 20%

 R2Ratings dispersions may vary from time to time where BofA Global Research believes it better reflects the investment prospects of stocks in a Coverage Cluster.

INCOME RATINGS, indicators of potential cash dividends, are: 7 - same/higher (dividend considered to be secure), 8 - same/lower (dividend not considered to be secure) and 9 - pays no cash dividend. Coverage Cluster is comprised of stocks covered by a single analyst or two or more analysts sharing a common industry, sector, region or other classification(s). A stock's coverage cluster is included in the most recent BofA Global Research report referencing the stock. 

EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS (ETF) INVESTMENT OPINION KEY: Opinions reflect both an Outlook Rating and a Category Rating. OUTLOOK RATINGS reflect the analyst's assessment of the ETF's attractiveness relative to other ETFs within its category (including sector, region, asset class, thematic, and others). There are three outlook ratings: 1 - the ETF is more attractive than covered peers in the same category over the next 12 months; 2 - the ETF is similarly attractive to covered peers in the same category over the next 12 months; and 3 - the ETF is less attractive than covered peers in the same category over the next 12 months. CATEGORY RATINGS, indicators of the analyst's view of the ETF's category and which incorporate published views of BofA Global Research department analysts, are: FV - Favorable view, NV - Neutral view and UF - Unfavorable view.

 

Price Charts for the securities referenced in this research report are available on the Price Charts website, or call 1-800-MERRILL to have them mailed.

BofAS or one of its affiliates acts as a market maker for the equity securities recommended in the report: 1st Trust Financ ETF, 1st Trust Indus Fund, 1st Trust Mater ETF, 1st Trust Techn ETF, ALPS Disruptive Tech, Columbia EMxC ETF, Eng Transform500 ETF, First Trust Water, FirstTrust SmCap ETF, FlexShares Qual LC, Franklin Canada ETF, FT STX EUROPE ETF, Global X AI & Tech, Global X Uranium ETF, GlobalX MLP&Ener ETF, Hartford Dev Mkt ETF, Inv DWA EnrgMomentum, Inv KBW Prop&Cas ETF, Invesco A&D ETF, Invesco Biotech ETF, Invesco Cons ETF, Invesco DWA ETF, Invesco Dyn E&P ETF, Invesco Global Water, Invesco Intl Div, Invesco Int'lBuyback, Invesco Leis & Ent, Invesco Pharma ETF, Invesco S&P EWU ETF, Invesco Software, InvescoSP500 PureVal, iS Home Constr ETF, iShares ACWI ex US, iShares Banks ETF, iShares Canada ETF, iShares Chile ETF, iShares Cons Srv ETF, iShares Core S&P ETF, iShares Currency ETF, iShares Div&Buyback, iShares Edg MSCI ETF, iShares EM ex China, iShares EM Multi ETF, iShares Global Clean, iShares Gold Min ETF, iShares India 50 ETF, iShares JPX-NIKK ETF, iShares Material ETF, iShares Mexico ETF, iShares MSCI HK ETF, iShares S&P 100 ETF, iShares S&P 500 ETF, iShares S&P Mid ETF, iShares Tech-Sft ETF, iShares U.S. M D ETF, iShares US, iShares-DJ Telecom, iSharesESG MSCI EM, KraneS CHINA ETF, L Mason L Vol Hi Div, Mkt Jr Gold Mine ETF, Oil&Gas Exp ETF, Pacer US S Cap C Cow, Pacer USCashCows ETF, S&P Aero&Def ETF, Schwab Div ETF, Schwab L Cap Grw, Schwab US Large ETF, Schwab US MidCap ETF, Schwab US REIT ETF, SPDR Comm Serv ETF, SPDR Energy ETF, SPDR EuroStoxx50 ETF, SPDR Financ ETF, SPDR Healthca ETF, SPDR Industr ETF, SPDR O&G E&S ETF, SPDR REIT ETF, SPDR S&P Bank ETF, SPDR S&P H Care ETF, SPDR S&P Homebuilder, SPDR S&P Insur ETF, SPDR S&P Met&Min, SPDR S&P Retail ETF, SPDR Semicond ETF, SPDR Tech ETF, SPDR Utilities ETF, Tortoise NA pipe ETF, VanEck Biotech ETF, VanEck Oil Svcs ETF, VanEck Rare Mtls ETF, VanEck Urn+Nucl ETF, VanEck Vectors ETF, Vanguard Cons ETF, Vanguard Intl Div, Vanguard Value ETF, Vanguard World ex US, VE Vect Pharma ETF, VE Vect Semicond ETF, WSDTRE JPN Hdg ETF, WTree India Earnings, Xtrackers EM Hdg ETF.

BofAS or an affiliate was a manager of a public offering of securities of this issuer within the last 12 months: Ameriprise Inc., Charles Schwab, State Street.

The issuer is or was, within the last 12 months, an investment banking client of BofAS and/or one or more of its affiliates: Ameriprise Inc., BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Deutsche Bank, Franklin Resources, Invesco, Northern Trust Corpo, SS&C Technologies Ho, State Street, The Hartford, WisdomTree.

BofAS or an affiliate has received compensation from the issuer for non-investment banking services or products within the past 12 months: Ameriprise Inc., BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Deutsche Bank, Eng Transform500 ETF, Franklin Resources, Invesco, Krane Funds Advisors, Market Vectors Jr, Mirae Asset Global, MiraeAsset Sec, Northern Trust Corpo, Pacer Advisors, SS&C Technologies Ho, State Street, The Hartford, Vaneck, Vanguard Group Inc, WisdomTree.

The issuer is or was, within the last 12 months, a non-securities business client of BofAS and/or one or more of its affiliates: Ameriprise Inc., BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Deutsche Bank, Franklin Resources, Invesco, Krane Funds Advisors, Market Vectors Jr, Mirae Asset Global, MiraeAsset Sec, Northern Trust Corpo, Pacer Advisors, SS&C Technologies Ho, State Street, The Hartford, Vaneck, Vanguard Group Inc, WisdomTree.

BofAS or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months: Ameriprise Inc., BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Deutsche Bank, Franklin Resources, Invesco, SS&C Technologies Ho, State Street, The Hartford, WisdomTree.

BofAS or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer or an affiliate of the issuer within the next three months: Ameriprise Inc., BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Deutsche Bank, Franklin Resources, Invesco, Northern Trust Corpo, SS&C Technologies Ho, State Street, The Hartford, WisdomTree.

BofAS together with its affiliates beneficially owns one percent or more of the shares of this fund. If this report was issued on or after the 9th day of the month, it reflects the ownership position on the last day of the previous month. Reports issued before the 9th day of the month reflect the ownership position at the end of the second month preceding the date of the report: 1st Trust Financ ETF, 1st Trust Indus Fund, 1st Trust Mater ETF, 1st Trust Techn ETF, ALPS Disruptive Tech, Columbia EMxC ETF, Eng Transform500 ETF, First Trust Water, FirstTrust SmCap ETF, Franklin Canada ETF, FT STX EUROPE ETF, Global X AI & Tech, Global X Uranium ETF, GlobalX MLP&Ener ETF, Hartford Dev Mkt ETF, Inv DWA EnrgMomentum, Inv KBW Prop&Cas ETF, Invesco A&D ETF, Invesco Biotech ETF, Invesco Cons ETF, Invesco DWA ETF, Invesco Dyn E&P ETF, Invesco Global Water, Invesco Intl Div, Invesco Int'lBuyback, Invesco Leis & Ent, Invesco Pharma ETF, Invesco S&P EWU ETF, Invesco Software, InvescoSP500 PureVal, iS Home Constr ETF, iShares ACWI ex US, iShares Banks ETF, iShares Canada ETF, iShares Cons Srv ETF, iShares Core S&P ETF, iShares Currency ETF, iShares Div&Buyback, iShares Edg MSCI ETF, iShares EM ex China, iShares Global Clean, iShares Gold Min ETF, iShares JPX-NIKK ETF, iShares Material ETF, iShares Mexico ETF, iShares S&P 100 ETF, iShares S&P 500 ETF, iShares S&P Mid ETF, iShares Tech-Sft ETF, iShares U.S. M D ETF, iShares US, iShares-DJ Telecom, iSharesESG MSCI EM, L Mason L Vol Hi Div, Oil&Gas Exp ETF, Pacer US S Cap C Cow, Pacer USCashCows ETF, S&P Aero&Def ETF, Schwab Div ETF, SPDR Comm Serv ETF, SPDR Energy ETF, SPDR EuroStoxx50 ETF, SPDR Financ ETF, SPDR Healthca ETF, SPDR Industr ETF, SPDR O&G E&S ETF, SPDR REIT ETF, SPDR S&P Bank ETF, SPDR S&P H Care ETF, SPDR S&P Homebuilder, SPDR S&P Insur ETF, SPDR S&P Met&Min, SPDR S&P Retail ETF, SPDR Semicond ETF, SPDR Tech ETF, SPDR Utilities ETF, Tortoise NA pipe ETF, VanEck Biotech ETF, VanEck Oil Svcs ETF, VanEck Rare Mtls ETF, VanEck Urn+Nucl ETF, Vanguard Cons ETF, Vanguard Intl Div, Vanguard Value ETF, Vanguard World ex US, VE Vect Pharma ETF, VE Vect Semicond ETF, WSDTRE JPN Hdg ETF, WTree India Earnings, Xtrackers EM Hdg ETF.

BofAS or one of its affiliates is willing to sell to, or buy from, clients the common equity of the issuer on a principal basis: 1st Trust Financ ETF, 1st Trust Indus Fund, 1st Trust Mater ETF, 1st Trust Techn ETF, ALPS Disruptive Tech, Columbia EMxC ETF, Eng Transform500 ETF, First Trust Water, FirstTrust SmCap ETF, FlexShares Qual LC, Franklin Canada ETF, FT STX EUROPE ETF, Global X AI & Tech, Global X Uranium ETF, GlobalX MLP&Ener ETF, Hartford Dev Mkt ETF, Inv DWA EnrgMomentum, Inv KBW Prop&Cas ETF, Invesco A&D ETF, Invesco Biotech ETF, Invesco Cons ETF, Invesco DWA ETF, Invesco Dyn E&P ETF, Invesco Global Water, Invesco Intl Div, Invesco Int'lBuyback, Invesco Leis & Ent, Invesco Pharma ETF, Invesco S&P EWU ETF, Invesco Software, InvescoSP500 PureVal, iS Home Constr ETF, iShares ACWI ex US, iShares Banks ETF, iShares Canada ETF, iShares Chile ETF, iShares Cons Srv ETF, iShares Core S&P ETF, iShares Currency ETF, iShares Div&Buyback, iShares Edg MSCI ETF, iShares EM ex China, iShares EM Multi ETF, iShares Global Clean, iShares Gold Min ETF, iShares India 50 ETF, iShares JPX-NIKK ETF, iShares Material ETF, iShares Mexico ETF, iShares MSCI HK ETF, iShares S&P 100 ETF, iShares S&P 500 ETF, iShares S&P Mid ETF, iShares Tech-Sft ETF, iShares U.S. M D ETF, iShares US, iShares-DJ Telecom, iSharesESG MSCI EM, KraneS CHINA ETF, L Mason L Vol Hi Div, Mkt Jr Gold Mine ETF, Oil&Gas Exp ETF, Pacer US S Cap C Cow, Pacer USCashCows ETF, S&P Aero&Def ETF, Schwab Div ETF, Schwab L Cap Grw, Schwab US Large ETF, Schwab US MidCap ETF, Schwab US REIT ETF, SPDR Comm Serv ETF, SPDR Energy ETF, SPDR EuroStoxx50 ETF, SPDR Financ ETF, SPDR Healthca ETF, SPDR Industr ETF, SPDR O&G E&S ETF, SPDR REIT ETF, SPDR S&P Bank ETF, SPDR S&P H Care ETF, SPDR S&P Homebuilder, SPDR S&P Insur ETF, SPDR S&P Met&Min, SPDR S&P Retail ETF, SPDR Semicond ETF, SPDR Tech ETF, SPDR Utilities ETF, Tortoise NA pipe ETF, VanEck Biotech ETF, VanEck Oil Svcs ETF, VanEck Rare Mtls ETF, VanEck Urn+Nucl ETF, VanEck Vectors ETF, Vanguard Cons ETF, Vanguard Intl Div, Vanguard Value ETF, Vanguard World ex US, VE Vect Pharma ETF, VE Vect Semicond ETF, WSDTRE JPN Hdg ETF, WTree India Earnings, Xtrackers EM Hdg ETF.

The issuer is or was, within the last 12 months, a securities business client (non-investment banking) of BofAS and/or one or more of its affiliates: Ameriprise Inc., BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Deutsche Bank, Eng Transform500 ETF, Franklin Resources, Invesco, Krane Funds Advisors, Market Vectors Jr, Mirae Asset Global, MiraeAsset Sec, Northern Trust Corpo, Pacer Advisors, SS&C Technologies Ho, State Street, The Hartford, Vaneck, Vanguard Group Inc, WisdomTree.

Due to the nature of strategic analysis, the issuers or securities recommended or discussed in this report are not continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers and/or securities.

BofA Global Research personnel (including the analyst(s) responsible for this report) receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of Bank of America Corporation, including profits derived from investment banking. The analyst(s) responsible for this report may also receive compensation based upon, among other factors, the overall profitability of the Bank's sales and trading businesses relating to the class of securities or financial instruments for which such analyst is responsible.

BofAS and/or its affiliates participate in the creation and redemption of these ETFs and are an authorized participant for such ETFs: 1st Trust Financ ETF, 1st Trust Indus Fund, 1st Trust Mater ETF, 1st Trust Techn ETF, Eng Transform500 ETF, First Trust Water, FirstTrust SmCap ETF, FlexShares Qual LC, FT STX EUROPE ETF, Global X AI & Tech, Global X Uranium ETF, GlobalX MLP&Ener ETF, Hartford Dev Mkt ETF, Inv DWA EnrgMomentum, Inv KBW Prop&Cas ETF, Invesco A&D ETF, Invesco Biotech ETF, Invesco Cons ETF, Invesco DWA ETF, Invesco Dyn E&P ETF, Invesco Global Water, Invesco Intl Div, Invesco Int'lBuyback, Invesco Leis & Ent, Invesco Pharma ETF, Invesco S&P EWU ETF, InvescoSP500 PureVal, iS Home Constr ETF, iShares ACWI ex US, iShares Banks ETF, iShares Canada ETF, iShares Chile ETF, iShares Cons Srv ETF, iShares Core S&P ETF, iShares Currency ETF, iShares Div&Buyback, iShares Edg MSCI ETF, iShares EM ex China, iShares EM Multi ETF, iShares Global Clean, iShares Gold Min ETF, iShares India 50 ETF, iShares JPX-NIKK ETF, iShares Material ETF, iShares Mexico ETF, iShares MSCI HK ETF, iShares S&P 100 ETF, iShares S&P 500 ETF, iShares S&P Mid ETF, iShares Tech-Sft ETF, iShares U.S. M D ETF, iShares US, iShares-DJ Telecom, iSharesESG MSCI EM, KraneS CHINA ETF, L Mason L Vol Hi Div, Mkt Jr Gold Mine ETF, Oil&Gas Exp ETF, Pacer US S Cap C Cow, Pacer USCashCows ETF, S&P Aero&Def ETF, Schwab Div ETF, Schwab L Cap Grw, Schwab US Large ETF, Schwab US MidCap ETF, Schwab US REIT ETF, SPDR Comm Serv ETF, SPDR Energy ETF, SPDR EuroStoxx50 ETF, SPDR Financ ETF, SPDR Healthca ETF, SPDR Industr ETF, SPDR O&G E&S ETF, SPDR REIT ETF, SPDR S&P Bank ETF, SPDR S&P H Care ETF, SPDR S&P Homebuilder, SPDR S&P Insur ETF, SPDR S&P Met&Min, SPDR S&P Retail ETF, SPDR Semicond ETF, SPDR Tech ETF, SPDR Utilities ETF, VanEck Biotech ETF, VanEck Oil Svcs ETF, VanEck Rare Mtls ETF, VanEck Urn+Nucl ETF, Vanguard Cons ETF, Vanguard Intl Div, Vanguard Value ETF, Vanguard World ex US, VE Vect Pharma ETF, VE Vect Semicond ETF, WSDTRE JPN Hdg ETF, WTree India Earnings, Xtrackers EM Hdg ETF

 

Other Important Disclosures

The covered issuer and/or one or more of its affiliates holds 5% or more of the total issued share capital of Bank of America Corporation: BlackRock, Vanguard Group Inc.

Prices are indicative and for information purposes only. Except as otherwise stated in the report, for any recommendation in relation to an equity security, the price referenced is the publicly traded price of the security as of close of business on the day prior to the date of the report or, if the report is published during intraday trading, the price referenced is indicative of the traded price as of the date and time of the report and in relation to a debt security (including equity preferred and CDS), prices are indicative as of the date and time of the report and are from various sources including BofA Securities trading desks.

The date and time of completion of the production of any recommendation in this report shall be the date and time of dissemination of this report as recorded in the report timestamp.

 

One or more analysts responsible for covering the funds in this report own(s) a position in a company that constitutes a significant portion of the assets of the subject fund: URA

​This report may refer to fixed income securities or other financial instruments that may not be offered or sold in one or more states or jurisdictions, or to certain categories of investors, including retail investors. Readers of this report are advised that any discussion, recommendation or other mention of such instruments is not a solicitation or offer to transact in such instruments. Investors should contact their BofA Securities representative or Merrill Global Wealth Management financial advisor for information relating to such instruments.

Recipients who are not institutional investors or market professionals should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor before considering information in this report in connection with any investment decision, or for a necessary explanation of its contents.

Officers of BofAS or one or more of its affiliates (other than research analysts) may have a financial interest in securities of the issuer(s) or in related investments.

Refer to BofA Global Research policies relating to conflicts of interest.

"BofA Securities" includes BofA Securities, Inc. ("BofAS") and its affiliates. Investors should contact their BofA Securities representative or Merrill Global Wealth Management financial advisor if they have questions concerning this report or concerning the appropriateness of any investment idea described herein for such investor. "BofA Securities" is a global brand for BofA Global Research.

Information relating to Non-US affiliates of BofA Securities and Distribution of Affiliate Research Reports:


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This information: has been approved for publication and is distributed in the United Kingdom (UK) to professional clients and eligible counterparties (as each is defined in the rules of the FCA and the PRA) by MLI (UK), which is authorized by the PRA and regulated by the FCA and the PRA - details about the extent of our regulation by the FCA and PRA are available from us on request; has been approved for publication and is distributed in the European Economic Area (EEA) by BofASE (France), which is authorized by the ACPR and regulated by the ACPR and the AMF; has been considered and distributed in Japan by BofAS Japan, a registered securities dealer under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act in Japan, or its permitted affiliates; is issued and distributed in Hong Kong by Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong) which is regulated by HKSFC; is issued and distributed in Taiwan by Merrill Lynch (Taiwan); is issued and distributed in India by BofAS India; and is issued and distributed in Singapore to institutional investors and/or accredited investors (each as defined under the Financial Advisers Regulations) by Merrill Lynch (Singapore) (Company Registration No 198602883D). Merrill Lynch (Singapore) is regulated by MAS. Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited (ABN 65 006 276 795), AFS License 235132 (MLEA) distributes this information in Australia only to 'Wholesale' clients as defined by s.761G of the Corporations Act 2001. With the exception of Bank of America N.A., Australia Branch, neither MLEA nor any of its affiliates involved in preparing this information is an Authorised Deposit-Taking Institution under the Banking Act 1959 nor regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. No approval is required for publication or distribution of this information in Brazil and its local distribution is by Merrill Lynch (Brazil) in accordance with applicable regulations. Merrill Lynch (DIFC) is authorized and regulated by the DFSA. Information prepared and issued by Merrill Lynch (DIFC) is done so in accordance with the requirements of the DFSA conduct of business rules. BofA Europe (Frankfurt) distributes this information in Germany and is regulated by BaFin, the ECB and the CBI. BofA Securities entities, including BofA Europe and BofASE (France), may outsource/delegate the marketing and/or provision of certain research services or aspects of research services to other branches or members of the BofA Securities group. You may be contacted by a different BofA Securities entity acting for and on behalf of your service provider where permitted by applicable law. This does not change your service provider. Please refer to the Electronic Communications Disclaimers for further information.

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General Investment Related Disclosures:

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This report may contain a short-term trading idea or recommendation, which highlights a specific near-term catalyst or event impacting the issuer or the market that is anticipated to have a short-term price impact on the equity securities of the issuer. Short-term trading ideas and recommendations are different from and do not affect a stock's fundamental equity rating, which reflects both a longer term total return expectation and attractiveness for investment relative to other stocks within its Coverage Cluster. Short-term trading ideas and recommendations may be more or less positive than a stock's fundamental equity rating.

BofA Securities is aware that the implementation of the ideas expressed in this report may depend upon an investor's ability to "short" securities or other financial instruments and that such action may be limited by regulations prohibiting or restricting "shortselling" in many jurisdictions. Investors are urged to seek advice regarding the applicability of such regulations prior to executing any short idea contained in this report.

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BofA Securities, through business units other than BofA Global Research, may have issued and may in the future issue trading ideas or recommendations that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented herein. Such ideas or recommendations may reflect different time frames, assumptions, views and analytical methods of the persons who prepared them, and BofA Securities is under no obligation to ensure that such other trading ideas or recommendations are brought to the attention of any recipient of this information.

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ETFs are redeemable only in Creation Unit size through an Authorized Participant and may not be individually redeemed. ETFs also are redeemable on an "in-kind" basis. The mechanism for creation and redemption of ETFs may be disrupted due to market conditions or otherwise.

The public trading price of an ETF may be different from its net asset value, and an ETF could trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value.

Investors in ETFs with international securities assume currency risk.

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"Standard & Poor's®", "S&P®", "S&P 500®", "Standard & Poor's 500", "500", "Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts®", "SPDRs®", "Select Sector SPDR" and "Select Sector Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts" are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use in connection with the listing and trading of Select Sector SPDRs on the AMEX. The stocks included in each Select Sector Index (upon which the Select Sector SPDRs are based) were selected by the index compilation agent in consultation with S&P from the universe of companies represented by the S&P 500 Index. The composition and weightings of the stocks included in each Select Sector Index can be expected to differ from the composition and weighting of stock included in any similar S&P 500 sector index that is published and disseminated by S&P.

For clients in Wealth Management, to the extent that the securities referenced in this report are ETFs or CEFs, investors should note that (1) the views and ratings presented by BofA Global Research personnel may vary from those of other business units of BofA Securities. including the Due Diligence group within the Chief Investment Office of MLPF&S ("CIO Due Diligence"); and (2) the CIO Due Diligence review process is used to determine the availability of an ETF or CEF for purchase through the Wealth Management division of MLPF&S and its affiliates.

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Materials prepared by BofA Global Research personnel are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BofA Securities, including investment banking personnel. BofA Securities has established information barriers between BofA Global Research and certain business groups. As a result, BofA Securities does not disclose certain client relationships with, or compensation received from, such issuers. To the extent this material discusses any legal proceeding or issues, it has not been prepared as nor is it intended to express any legal conclusion, opinion or advice. Investors should consult their own legal advisers as to issues of law relating to the subject matter of this material. BofA Global Research personnel's knowledge of legal proceedings in which any BofA Securities entity and/or its directors, officers and employees may be plaintiffs, defendants, co-defendants or co-plaintiffs with or involving issuers mentioned in this material is based on public information. Facts and views presented in this material that relate to any such proceedings have not been reviewed by, discussed with, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of BofA Securities in connection with the legal proceedings or matters relevant to such proceedings.

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All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prices also are subject to change without notice. BofA Securities is under no obligation to update this information and BofA Securities ability to publish information on the subject issuer(s) in the future is subject to applicable quiet periods. You should therefore assume that BofA Securities will not update any fact, circumstance or opinion contained herein.

Subject to the quiet period applicable under laws of the various jurisdictions in which we distribute research reports and other legal and BofA Securities policy-related restrictions on the publication of research reports, fundamental equity reports are produced on a regular basis as necessary to keep the investment recommendation current.

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